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Release date: September 15, 2009 | ISBN-10: 1416589686 | ISBN-13: 978-1416589686 | Edition: First Edition
Vali Nasr’s The Shia Revival turned the debate about the Iraq War on its head, unveiling how the Shia-Sunni rift fueled the Iraqi insurgency, and shooting onto the bestseller lists. Now Fateful Crescent will utterly rewrite the wisdom about the Islamic threat and the "clash of civilizations."
With Iran fast becoming a hegemonic powerhouse, embroiling the U.S. in what’s been described as a new Cold War, Vali Nasr reveals there is also a powerful counterforce in the Islamic world to that of the Iranian regime, so far unseen in the West. A vast tidal force is swelling up of upwardly mobile entrepreneurs, consumers, and investors who can tip the scales of power away from extremist belligerence. With a deft combination of historical narrative and contemporary on-the-ground reporting, Nasr demystifies these devout yet development-minded Muslims of the "critical middle"—the stealth force behind the extraordinary growth of aggressively capitalist Dubai—showing that they are people the West can and must do business with. By building strong ties with them, Nasr demonstrates, the tide of extremism can be turned. Fateful Crescent will spark lively debate and play a vital role in bringing about a sea change in thinking about the conflict with Islam.
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"Vali Nasr masterfully articulates his argument through comprehensive research and vivid reporting. A must read." -- Senator John F. Kerry
"Vali Nasr's new paradigm about the rise of a new Muslim middle class will be embraced by a broad spectrum of experts: because it is a startling truth hiding in plain sight that Nasr brilliantly reveals and elaborates." -- Robert D. Kaplan, author of Balkan Ghosts and Imperial Grunts
"With his unique credentials and bold insights, Vali Nasr has written a landmark work at a pivotal time. It's a rich and exciting read." -- Robin Wright, author of Dreams and Shadows: The Future of the Middle East
"In this fascinating and timely book, Vali Nasr argues lucidly that free trade, not sanctions, is the key to a democratic awakening in the Muslim world. Forces of Fortune seems bound to be influential." -- Jon Lee Anderson, author of The Fall of Baghdad
"Take American chips away from the endlessly hypocritical and fruitless diplomatic games and rhetoric, our weakest hand, and put the chips on our strength -- helping Middle Eastern and Muslim countries with economic growth. That's the way to ultimately defeat the terrorists, build the middle classes, loosen ties to Arab autocrats, and develop democracies. That's Vali Nasr's brilliant message. It's the only way to rescue U.S. foreign policy from disasters." -- Leslie H. Gelb, former New York Times columnist and senior government official, president emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations
“Nasr has written a rewarding and impressive book. He is a lively guide to a maze of issues that rarely get discussed, and he uses the fruits of his wide travels in the Middle East with great skill … full of knowing insights and subtle personal portraits. Judging by this book, it is no mystery that Nasr has risen to such prominence in U.S. government circles as a preeminent explainer of the complex phenomena that define the modern Middle East.”
—Foreign Affairs
“Vali Nasr’s important new book helps us understand the positive power of commerce in the Muslim world. He shows how growing economies and a new business class will be more important than extremist ideologies in determining how the Middle East interacts with the world. This is a wonderful combination of historical analysis and insightful reporting.”
—Walter Isaacson, CEO of The Aspen Institute and author of Kissinger: A Biography
“In recent years, much of the discussion about the Muslim world has focused on the role of Islam in politics, especially the rise of extremist groups. In this informative book, Middle East expert Nasr challenges our commonly held assumptions about the dynamics of the contemporary Middle East. Relying on examples from countries ranging from Iran to Turkey and Pakistan, he demonstrates that that is a commercial revolution in the Muslim world fueled by the emergence of dynamic and upwardly mobile middle-class entrepreneurs and reformers…It is this “critical mass,” he says, that will define the contours of Middle Eastern politics and the broader Muslim world and not the marginal extremists that have dominated news coverage of the region. This book should be read by all concerned citizens and policymakers in the West.”
—Library Journal
“Nasr offers a fresh look at the future of religious extremism in the Middle East. He posits that a rising middle class is far more interested in economic success than in fervent religiosity. Nasr’s analysis … is well-argued and deserves close attention.”
Vali Nasr is Dean and Professor of International Relations at Johns Hopkins University's Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, a non-resident Fellow at the Brookings Institution and a Contributor to Bloomberg View. He is a member of the State Department's Foreign Affairs Policy Advisory Board to advise the Secretary of State on global issues.
Between 2009 and 2011 he served as Senior Advisor to U.S. Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, Ambassador Richard Holbrooke.
Vali Nasr is one of America's leading experts on the Islamic world and Middle East politics. He is internationally renowned and has influenced critical public debates and policy decisions in both U.S. and Europe. He is the author of the groundbreaking book The Dispensable Nation (2013), which takes a hard look at strategic risk of a shrinking American role on the global stage. His two previous books, the New York Times best seller Shia Revival (2006), and Forces of Fortune (2009) correctly foretold of sectarian conflict following Iraq war and the potential for an Arab Spring. He has advised presidents and senior policy makers, members of the Congress, presidential campaigns, and global political and business leaders. He was featured on the front page of Wall Street Journal; quoted by Senator John Kerry on the floor of the U.S. Senate; and described as a "national resource" by Richard Haass, the President of the Council on Foreign Relations.
Vali Nasr is the author of The Dispensable Nation: American Foreign Policy in Retreat (Doubleday, 2013); Forces of Fortune: The Rise of A New Muslim Middle Class and What It Means for Our World (Free Press, 2009; also published in paperback as The Rise of Islamic Capitalism: Why the New Middle Class is Key to Defeating Extremism and in U.K. as Meccanomics: The March of the New Muslim Middle Class); The Shia Revival: How Conflicts within Islam will Shape the Future (W.W. Norton, 2006); Democracy in Iran: History and the Quest for Liberty (Oxford University Press, 2006); The Islamic Leviathan: Islam and the Making of State Power (Oxford University Press, 2001); Mawdudi and the Making of Islamic Revivalism (Oxford University Press, 1996); The Vanguard of the Islamic Revolution: The Jama`at-i Islami of Pakistan (University of California Press, 1994); an editor of Oxford Dictionary of Islam (Oxford University Press, 2003); and co-editor of Expectation of the Millennium: Shi`ism in History (SUNY Press, 1989); as well as numerous articles in academic journals and encyclopedias. His works have been translated into Arabic, French, German, Hebrew, Spanish, Portuguese, Indonesian, Italian, Turkish, Persian, Chinese, Hindi and Urdu.
He has written for The New York Times, Foreign Affairs, The New Republic, Newsweek, Time, Foreign Policy, Los Angeles Times, The Wall Street Journal, and The Washington Post, and has provided frequent expert commentary to CNN, BBC, National Public Radio, Public Radio International, Newshour with Jim Lehrer, Frontline, ABC News, CBS News, NBC News, and has been a guest on the Charlie Rose Show and Meet the Press, Larry King Live, the Daily Show with Jon Stewart, The Colbert Report and Real Time with Bill Maher. His interviews have appeared in Al-Hayat, Al-Sharq al-Awsat and Al-Jazeera in the Middle East, Der Spiegel and Die Welt in Germany, La Repubblica, La Stampa, and Corriera della Sera in Italy, El Mundo in Spain, and Le Monde in France, as well as in leading media outlets in Austria, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Denmark, Iran, Japan, Turkey, Sweden and Switzerland.
He is a member of Board of Trustees of the Rockefeller Brothers Fund, Board of Trustees of National Democratic Institute; Board of Directors of the Foundation for Iranian Studies; and the Fund Board of the Public Affairs Association of Iranian-Americans (PAAIA). He has been the recipient of grants from the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, The Harry Frank Guggenheim Foundation, and the Social Science Research Council. He is a Carnegie Scholar for 2006.
He received his BA from Tufts University in International Relations summa cum laude and was initiated into Phi Beta Kappa in 1983. He earned his masters from the Fletcher School of Law in and Diplomacy in international economics and Middle East studies in 1984, and his PhD from MIT in political science in 1991.
As one of the foremost scholars and thinkers on Muslim society Vali Nasr has demonstrated his keen insight into that world. His 2007 book The Shia Revival: How Conflicts within Islam Will Shape the Future sought to reframe the debate over the Iraq war by exploring how the Shia and Sunni divide was fueling what in essence was not only a civil war but a continuation of a long-running religious conflict. With "Forces of Fortune" Nasr has produced another work that should reshape opinions and increase understanding of the broader changes occurring in the Muslim world. Nasr asserts that the rise of a business-minded middle class is reshaping societies across the Muslim world and how the West engages this burgeoning middle class will provide the key to countering the threat from Islamic extremists and Iran. That alone represents a considerable paradigm shift from the West's longtime support of autocratic nations in the region who have failed to democratize and liberalize their economies and their societies. Nasr makes a compelling argument that the way to win over the Muslim world is to engage it over business, capitalism, and trade; not to fight it over religion.
Equally surprising is his assessment that Islamic extremism and anti-Americanism took hold in the region not because of an inevitable clash of cultures (as other scholars have asserted), but because unlike other countries and regions a middle class failed to emerge in the 19th and 20th Centuries. This is hardly surprising given the sclerosis and decline of the Ottoman Empire in the 19th Century, the exploitative effects of colonialism and the autocratic regimes that dominated the latter half of the 20th Century. But more interesting points emerge, such as what Nasr calls the "critical middle" (Turkey, Iran, Pakistan, and Dubai) where the emergence of an increasingly economically and politically powerful middle class is already exerting its influence. The protests in Iran over the re-election of President Ahmadinejad were driven in a large part by the emergent middle class. It was lawyers in Pakistan who played a prominent role in street demonstrations that spurred General Musharraf to stand down. Presure from Turkey's growing middle class coupled with EU pressure has forced Prime Minister Erdođan, President Gül and the AKP party to moderate their more extreme positions. This "critical middle" will hopefully motivate emulation in other Muslim countries, but the West needs to take a more active role in fostering this growth.
Nasr produces some seriously thought provoking ideas and concepts here that hopefully will be debated and argued not only in the West, but in the Muslim world. "Forces of Fortune" is a rather appropriate title and hopefully the opening points in a broader discussion about the future direction for both the West and the Muslim world. "Forces of Fortune" picks up on themes Fareed Zakaria had explored in The Post-American World, but amplifies on them considerably. Best of all Nasr's prose is easily accessible and relatable to the layman or to scholars. As an Adjunct Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations Nasr certainly is one of the foremost experts on the Middle East; "Forces of Fortune" will prove he knows what he's talking about, lets just hope that people will read it and take action.
Vali Nasr is the author of another famous book, the Shia Revival. He is back with a similarly ground breaking important book. Nasr argues that the Muslim world will change in the direction of modernity only if market forces take over. That is how it happened in Medieval Europe. He argues that people adopt secular values and modern values after they enter free markets. That is an idea that is quite familiar to the West, which believes in the power of the Industrial revolution, free markets and capitalism. Nasr's argument is intriguing. In other words, rather waste so much effort in persuading Muslims to become westernized, we should encourage them to become capitalists.
Nasr argues that when Muslims join free market economies they develop vested interest in commerce and everything that commerce requires. He gives the example of how in Turkey free market forces tamed that country's fundamentalist parties to produce the current moderate Islamic democratic government. Nasr argues that free trade does not turn people into secularists, but it moderate their views. The notion that fresh ideas take hold only if people have vested interest in them is a powerful one. Why would people become moderate of secular if it did not make sense in terms of their interests? Moderation he argues is strongest if it is supported by the profit motive.
Nasr gives plenty of examples from Dubai, Iran, Arab world, Indonesia, Turkey and Pakistan to show two things; first Muslims are capable of functioning in the free market, and when they do that they become noticeably more moderate. This is the freshest and most novel book on the Middle East I have read in a long while. It gives a completely new perspective on understanding what is happening in the Middle East, and that is useful at a time the U.S. is still trying to figure out how to defeat extremism. To top it off it is really well-written, educational, and full of insights.
Nasr has done it again, he has written a lucid and compelling primer about where the Muslim world is today and the role he sees business and free markets playing in the future. His assessment, for the most part, is fair, balanced and nonpartisan. He sees fundamentalism as a problem and takes extremist threat seriously, but believes that the solution to the problems int he Muslim world lies not in religion or politics, but economics.
The principal weakness of the book is a product of its brevity: the author paints in broad strokes, providing a sweeping assessment of the dynamic changes that have unfolded in the Muslim world over the past decades which at times result in some over-generalizations and assessments that are too optimistic. He can be accused of seeing too much promise in business growth and what it can do for the Muslim world. He will also get flack from those who see Islam as the big problem and do not believe Muslims can change. But what makes Mr. Nasr's book an important one is that provides a cogent and convincing argument about why and how market forces can and will change the Muslim world. The power of his argument comes from the fact that we do in fact believe in the power of economics, but have so far refused to see it as relevant to the future of the Muslim world. And there lies the value of this book, connecting the most important force of our time (markets and business) to the greatest concern of our time (Islamic extremism)--showing how one can fix the other.
This is an important book. You will do yourself service to read it. I hope all our policy-makers read it too. It is a smart and new argument. And Mr. Nasr has shown his ability to compel new thinking once again.
