Customer Reviews

Forces of Fortune: The Rise of the New Muslim Middle Class and What It Will Mean for Our World

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As one of the foremost scholars and thinkers on Muslim society Vali Nasr has demonstrated his keen insight into that world. His 2007 book The Shia Revival: How Conflicts within Islam Will Shape the Future sought to reframe the debate over the Iraq war by exploring how the Shia and Sunni divide was fueling what in essence was not only a civil war but a continuation of a long-running religious conflict. With "Forces of Fortune" Nasr has produced another work that should reshape opinions and increase understanding of the broader changes occurring in the Muslim world. Nasr asserts that the rise of a business-minded middle class is reshaping societies across the Muslim world and how the West engages this burgeoning middle class will provide the key to countering the threat from Islamic extremists and Iran. That alone represents a considerable paradigm shift from the West's longtime support of autocratic nations in the region who have failed to democratize and liberalize their economies and their societies. Nasr makes a compelling argument that the way to win over the Muslim world is to engage it over business, capitalism, and trade; not to fight it over religion.

Equally surprising is his assessment that Islamic extremism and anti-Americanism took hold in the region not because of an inevitable clash of cultures (as other scholars have asserted), but because unlike other countries and regions a middle class failed to emerge in the 19th and 20th Centuries. This is hardly surprising given the sclerosis and decline of the Ottoman Empire in the 19th Century, the exploitative effects of colonialism and the autocratic regimes that dominated the latter half of the 20th Century. But more interesting points emerge, such as what Nasr calls the "critical middle" (Turkey, Iran, Pakistan, and Dubai) where the emergence of an increasingly economically and politically powerful middle class is already exerting its influence. The protests in Iran over the re-election of President Ahmadinejad were driven in a large part by the emergent middle class. It was lawyers in Pakistan who played a prominent role in street demonstrations that spurred General Musharraf to stand down. Presure from Turkey's growing middle class coupled with EU pressure has forced Prime Minister Erdođan, President Gül and the AKP party to moderate their more extreme positions. This "critical middle" will hopefully motivate emulation in other Muslim countries, but the West needs to take a more active role in fostering this growth.

Nasr produces some seriously thought provoking ideas and concepts here that hopefully will be debated and argued not only in the West, but in the Muslim world. "Forces of Fortune" is a rather appropriate title and hopefully the opening points in a broader discussion about the future direction for both the West and the Muslim world. "Forces of Fortune" picks up on themes Fareed Zakaria had explored in The Post-American World, but amplifies on them considerably. Best of all Nasr's prose is easily accessible and relatable to the layman or to scholars. As an Adjunct Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations Nasr certainly is one of the foremost experts on the Middle East; "Forces of Fortune" will prove he knows what he's talking about, lets just hope that people will read it and take action.

Vali Nasr is the author of another famous book, the Shia Revival. He is back with a similarly ground breaking important book. Nasr argues that the Muslim world will change in the direction of modernity only if market forces take over. That is how it happened in Medieval Europe. He argues that people adopt secular values and modern values after they enter free markets. That is an idea that is quite familiar to the West, which believes in the power of the Industrial revolution, free markets and capitalism. Nasr's argument is intriguing. In other words, rather waste so much effort in persuading Muslims to become westernized, we should encourage them to become capitalists.

Nasr argues that when Muslims join free market economies they develop vested interest in commerce and everything that commerce requires. He gives the example of how in Turkey free market forces tamed that country's fundamentalist parties to produce the current moderate Islamic democratic government. Nasr argues that free trade does not turn people into secularists, but it moderate their views. The notion that fresh ideas take hold only if people have vested interest in them is a powerful one. Why would people become moderate of secular if it did not make sense in terms of their interests? Moderation he argues is strongest if it is supported by the profit motive.

Nasr gives plenty of examples from Dubai, Iran, Arab world, Indonesia, Turkey and Pakistan to show two things; first Muslims are capable of functioning in the free market, and when they do that they become noticeably more moderate. This is the freshest and most novel book on the Middle East I have read in a long while. It gives a completely new perspective on understanding what is happening in the Middle East, and that is useful at a time the U.S. is still trying to figure out how to defeat extremism. To top it off it is really well-written, educational, and full of insights.

This was an easy book to read. It is full of stories and connects so many dots that are missing in the coverage of Middle East. What I found most intersting is the idea that Islamic values and how Muslims see the world can change, and how that can happen is in ways so intuitive that we have missed it. There is a lot of history and politics in this book, it is insightful and persuasive but above all it gives an Aha moment. It makes you think we are not on the right track right now. If we want to deal with extremism and fundamentalism we have to focus on economics and business. Nasr says that will chnage Islam and the Middle East.

I come from Iran and saw the summer demonstrations first hand. Nasr explains what is happening in Iran very well. The discussion on Iran is definitely worth it. I think everyone shoudl read this book.

This is a provocative book...no other way to put it. First of all, this is the first hopeful book on Middle East I have read a long time. Second, this book looks to things no one else does. It writes of businessmen and financiers, new age preachers and the youth and civil society, but all of it in new ways. The message of the book is a powerful one. Nasr argues that capitalism is the only thing that can moderate the Islamic world, and he gives many examples from Dubai, Turkey and Iran to prove his point. It is strange that at a time America is criticizing capitalism Nasr is preaching it, but the argument is interesting. This is an objective and easy book to read. Nasr does not attack or defend Islam, and that is refreshing, but he does advocate capitalism, and then mixes it with Islam. It is ingenious, and worthy of consideration.

Nasr has done it again, he has written a lucid and compelling primer about where the Muslim world is today and the role he sees business and free markets playing in the future. His assessment, for the most part, is fair, balanced and nonpartisan. He sees fundamentalism as a problem and takes extremist threat seriously, but believes that the solution to the problems int he Muslim world lies not in religion or politics, but economics.

The principal weakness of the book is a product of its brevity: the author paints in broad strokes, providing a sweeping assessment of the dynamic changes that have unfolded in the Muslim world over the past decades which at times result in some over-generalizations and assessments that are too optimistic. He can be accused of seeing too much promise in business growth and what it can do for the Muslim world. He will also get flack from those who see Islam as the big problem and do not believe Muslims can change. But what makes Mr. Nasr's book an important one is that provides a cogent and convincing argument about why and how market forces can and will change the Muslim world. The power of his argument comes from the fact that we do in fact believe in the power of economics, but have so far refused to see it as relevant to the future of the Muslim world. And there lies the value of this book, connecting the most important force of our time (markets and business) to the greatest concern of our time (Islamic extremism)--showing how one can fix the other.

This is an important book. You will do yourself service to read it. I hope all our policy-makers read it too. It is a smart and new argument. And Mr. Nasr has shown his ability to compel new thinking once again.

Mr. Nasr is a one of the best minds on Islam and the Middle East. His last book, The Shia Revival, was a best-seller that forecast sectarianism in Iraq even before it had happened. He has a reputation for being insightful and coming up with new ideas. This book lives up that reputation. It gives a completely different picture of the Middle East than the one we read and hear in the media. Nasr writes that extremism is a problem, and so is fundamentalism, poverty, and dictatorship. But he does not think things are hopeless. He explains that there are places in the Muslim world where a new middle class tied to business has been changing things for the better. There is a lot of useful history and facts, often about issues we do not hear about, in this book. It also ties change in the Middle East to things we know about, business, economics, capitalism. Tom Freedman meets Islamic history, that is what this book is about. It is a completely novel idea and a worthwhile read.

This is a great read. It explains Middle East history really well, and makes the very interesting argument that what is happening in the Middle East is not all about religion, but business and economics play an important role. I enjoyed reading this book. The main argument is thought provoking and completely out of the box. But that aside, it is a nice read that makes a complex topic very understandable. So good you could read it at the beach.

In his new book, Vali Nasr provides an overview of the broad, societal trends that have shaped the Middle East over the last century. Each chapter serves as an overview of the popular topics of the region including Iran, Dubai, Pakistan, Turkey, fundamentalism, and the popularity of state control over the economy though Kemalism. Anecdotes are used throughout the book with engaging writing to absorb the reader in his discussion of the historical trends in the region. Nasr also makes a point to address popular misconceptions of events in the Middle East, providing a clear and thoughtful overview of many heavily debated topics. Throughout this discussion, Nasr exemplifies the importance of the middle class in fostering democratic norms, reducing tensions, and developing an economically vibrant region. If the West hopes to achieve long term reform within the region, it must promote economic reforms that support the moderate Muslim middle class. Only then will secularism, human rights, and democracy begin to gain prominence.

Response:

Nasr's thesis of empowering the middle class of the Middle East to spur democratic reform throughout the region depends on a single assumption: the adoption of a neoliberal world view. Neoliberalism is a perspective within international relations that states economic interdependency and the adoption of democratic norms will reduce conflict throughout the globe. This is essentially Nasr's argument. As the middle class of the Middle East is allowed to progress economically, political reform will follow and tensions between the Middle East and the West will decline.

There are numerous counters to this perspective. For example, Japan and the United States were highly integrated economically before World War II yet this did not prevent them from going to war. Realism, the other dominant world view in international relations, would assert that states are inherently self-interested since there is no global power that can monopolize force. Even though the middle class of the Middle East may spur economic development, these states will persistently pursue their self interest. Since the survival of any given country is never assured, national interests are built on a foundation of increasing one's relative power compared to other states.

The answer is most likely somewhere between the two perspectives. Nasr's policy perspectives will most likely decrease conflict within and from the region. However, conflict should not be expected to be completely negated. There are no foundational "peace" theories within international relations, and for every model of peace, there is contrasting examples of that model leading to war. In short, Nasr's policy recommendations are likely to increase long-term development, consolidate democratic norms, and reduce tensions, but they cannot be expected to bring complete stability and peace to the region.

Bottom Line:

Vali Nasr presents an incredibly informative book. Forces of Fortune is, hands down, one of the best primers on the Middle East. While there are numerous topics not discussed like the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict, Nasr focuses on the underlying dilemmas within the region that underpin today's tensions. Anyone that has an interest in the Middle East must read this book. For those that have already studied the Middle East at depth and are familiar with the concepts of neoliberalism, this book won't provide much in the way of new insights however.

For more reviews and an in-depth summary of Nasr's book, find us at Hand of Reason.

This is a smart and thoroughly enjoyable book. Nasr argues that the problem with Muslim world is that it is economically behind the rest of the world. This is not the familiar argument that poverty causes terrorism, but the more interesting notion that Muslims are not modernizing because they lack capitalism. Nasr argues that the force that modernized Europe and now China and India is capitalism, and that is the force that must also modernize the Muslim world. That is the force that a proper middle class must lead. For much of the book Nasr introduces this middle class and argues that is emerging in places like Turkey or Dubai, or even Pakistan and Iran. Once can take issue with him about how strong this trend is, but what is even more compelling in his argument is that there is no other way forward for Islam out of fundamentalism and terrorism but capitalism.

I heard Nasr on Farid Zakaria argue his point, and I was impressed. He argued that terrorists like 9/11 hijackers may come from rich backgrounds, like terrorists in Europe, but the West will only be safe when Muslim middle class rejects terrorism. The roadmap he shows is that will happen when they are capitalist and part of world economy. This is probably the most original and fresh thinking on the subject of Islam, extremism and fundamentalism in a long time.

In addition, this book is full insightful anecdotes and historical facts, and is very well-written, a joy to read. Agree with him, fully, partially, or not, you will enjoy this book and still learn a lot.

Forces of Fortune, by Vali Nasr (son of Seyyed Hossein Nasr), is an important contribution to our understanding of what is actually happening in the Muslim Middle East, as opposed to what Arab, Iranian, and Israeli propagandists are claiming. Strongly recommended.