Forecasting Financial Markets: The Psychology of Successful Investing [Hardcover]

Tony Plummer (Author)

Book Description

ISBN-10: 0749439394 | ISBN-13: 978-0749439392 | Publication Date: June 2003 | Edition: 4th

In "Forecasting Financial Markets," Tony Plummer provides a compelling insight into the psychology of trading behavior and shows how the herd instinct in decision-making can have disastrous results. The ability to make money in markets depends critically on an individual's ability to make decisions independently of the crowd. To attain such independence the investor or trader must acquire the ability to:

Editorial Reviews

Review

"This book will entertain and intrigue keen investors." -- Financial Times

About the Author

Tony Plummer is a director of Guinness Flight Hambro Global Fund Managers Limited and is a former director of Hambros Bank Limited. He has worked in financial markets since 1976 and his experience covers global fixed interest and foreign exchange markets. He now lectures regularly on crowd psychology and technical analysis at seminars throughout the world.

Product Details

• Hardcover: 400 pages
• Publisher: Kogan Page Business Books; 4th edition (June 2003)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0749439394
• ISBN-13: 978-0749439392
• Product Dimensions: 9.4 x 6.4 x 1.4 inches
• Shipping Weight: 1.9 pounds
• Average Customer Review: 3.4 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (7 customer reviews)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #3,324,367 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

More About the Author

Discover books, learn about writers, read author blogs, and more.

Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

18 of 25 people found the following review helpful:

1.0 out of 5 stars Not helpful at all., April 10, 2006

By 

ServantofGod - See all my reviews

This review is from: Forecasting Financial Markets: The Psychology of Successful Investing (Hardcover)

Believe it or not, I got to re-read the Foreword and the Introduction to check whether the objective of the book is that of the book title. I must praise the publisher for being able to get the endorsement from Financial Times, The Independent, Futures Magazine and even a Sir in the back cover. However, I really doubt whether those critics (no personal name given indeed) had read the book at all.

As a pro mechanical (using TA with as little personal judgement as possible, vs the large judgement needed of, say, Elliot Wave Theories) trader/CFA/trading book lover I really dislike the book. I admit that I am prejudiced against Cycles/Elliot Wave Theories coz it's nearly impossible to tell what phase/stage of what cycle one is in and thus what high profit probability action one should take, except from hindsight which may already be hundreds of pips away. Pathetically, the key theme of the book, if present, is to provide academic background of various types of cycle theory. Psuedo science/psychology/economics, forgive me.

In case you really want to read something to sharpen your trading/investment edge, I strongly suggest you to give it a pass.

11 of 15 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Awesome technical analysis book, July 22, 2003

By 

PGMS "PGMS" (NJ USA) - See all my reviews

This review is from: Forecasting Financial Markets: The Psychology of Successful Investing (Hardcover)

Many technical analysts like to forget that they live in the real world. Technical analysis is based on the idea that the patterns drawn by stock prices can be used to forecast the financial markets. The field of behavioral finance essentially looks at this psychological give and take from an academic perspective, while technical analysis is largely a real life application. Tony Plummer brilliantly bridges this gap by showing how and why these patterns develop. He also discusses his own take on Elliott Wave Theory in a cogent and interesting manner. (Disclosure: This reviewer wrote "Applying Elliott Wave Theory Profitably" and Mr. Plummer wrote the foreword to the book.)

4 of 5 people found the following review helpful:

1.0 out of 5 stars Nonsense, June 26, 2009

By 

Husam Abu-Haimed (California, USA) - See all my reviews
(VINE VOICE)    (REAL NAME)   

Amazon Verified Purchase

This review is from: Forecasting Financial Markets: The Psychology of Successful Investing 5th edition (Paperback)

This book is just an incoherent collection of fancy words and phrases (like crowd psychology, feedback systems, fractals, etc). The book is supposed to show the scientific basis behind technical analysis. But, the reasoning (or lack thereof) is mediocre at best. I got the feeling that the author wants the book to sound scientific without any science.

In certain cases, the book makes conclusions that are absolutely and shockingly false. For example, in page 58, the author makes a conclusion that boils down to this: as you increase the window of a moving average, there will be a very high correlation between the values of the moving average at any two times T and T-1. Hence, the author claims, this (the high correlation) shows that financial markets are predictable!!

This "reasoning" is absolutely ridiculous. Moving averages BY DEFINITION smooth out curves and hence increase correlation between time steps of the smoothed curve. In fact, if the window is large enough the value of the moving average will be approximately constant and that will imply that the correlation between T and T-1 is almost 1. This will be the case for almost ANY stationary data series. Does that make any such data series predictable?! Absolutely not!