Customer Reviews

Forty-Five Years in Wall Street

5 star:		(2)
4 star:		(0)
3 star:		(1)
2 star:		(0)
1 star:		(1)

 

 

"45 Years in Wall Street" was actually Gann's last book, written in 1949 (he issued a revised edition of his commodities book in 1951), in which he presents the final version of his cycles-based system. Since cycles can extend, shorten, invert, and skip, Gann offers several trend-following methods to minimize damage from forecasting mistakes and to keep one on the right side of the markets. His excellent, 24 trading rules afford advice on money management, risk management, trend-following, trade entry, and exit techniques that are currently valid.

Gann always openly hinted that the details for his celebrated forecasting method were concealed in his writings. This book, as is all others written by Gann, is written on two levels. The first level is expository and describes how to swing-trade. The arcana submerged in the second level can be approached by examining the recurrent themes about time, price, and geometry, and the dates which he feels are significant. Details for Gann's time and price model are contained in all of his books and major courses with the exception of "Tunnel Through the Air."

Strangely, the weakest part of this book is the final chapter with Gann's predictions for the early 1950s. Gann felt that 1953 was going to be a year of post-war depression rivalling the great depression of the 1930s. His cycle model indicated a strong down-turn which actually became a cyclical inversion where the market turned sharply upwards - such are the hazards of public forecasting! However, Gann followers should not have lost money during the 1953 inversion, because their swing-trade methods would have self-corrected this forecast error.

Whatever level one chooses to tackle, this book is a worthwhile addition to anyone's trading library.

Addendum, March 29, 2011, projected important stock market dates: 01/24/11; 03/18/11; 03/28/11; 04/25/11; 06/20/11; 07/07/11; 08/08/11; 09/06/11; 10/26/11; 11/21/11; 12/12/11; 01/17/12; 03/12/12; 04/09/12; 05/07/12; 06/11/12; 07/23/12; 08/20-23/12; 11/05/12; 11/26/12; 12/12/12; and 01/17/13.

Most famous for his 24 never-failing rules - basically follow the trend, use stop losses, and never average down. Also includes lots of useful Dow data back to 1912 - with swing charts, etc.

This book is extremely boring. It has time series descriptions as: Monday 10.8, tuesday 9.5, wednesday 9.7, thursday 10.2, friday holiday etc... that could be better presented by a chart. Also his 3 point rule is poorly described. The paper quality is also poor. Only the first chapter is interesting because of the rules (some advice) that you can read cheaply on one of the book reviews.
Overall, boring, tedious, expensive and not very informative.

This book was written in 1949. By all means what put forth by Gann as the 12 and the 24 rules are still valid today. In fact, his ideas are still being copied in simply all other trading books. Even the diary like section in Soros' Alchemy of Fianance did resembled the style of a majority part of this book. In short, a must read for any trader!

Remark: One might think that I am a crazy Gann friend. To justifiy the title I put for this review, I would like to summarize Gann's 12 and 24 rules for one's reference:-

The 12 rules:-
1. Determine the trend
2. Buy at single, double and triple bottoms
3. Buy and sell on percentages
4. Buy and sell on 3 weeks' advance or decline
5. Market moves in sections/waves
6. Buy or sell on 5 to 7 point moves
7. Study volume to determine change in trend
8. Study time factor and time periods to determine change in trend. (p.s. when a time period on a decline exceeds that of a previous decline, it indicates a change in trend)
9. Buy on higher tops and bottoms
10. A change in trend often occurs just before or after holidays. (p.s. when prices are at high levels there are usually several swings up and down, then when the market breaks the low of the last swing it indicates a reversal and change in trend)
11. Buy on a second reaction at a higher bottom. When it reacts only 2 days, it is in a very strong position.
12. Price gains in fast moves does not last very long.

The 24 rules:-
1. Never risk one tenth of capital in one trade.
2. Always use stop loss orders.
3. Never overtrade.
4. Never let a profit run into a loss.
5. Do not buck the trend.
6. When in doubt, get our or dont get in.
7. Trade only active stocks.
8. Equal distribution of risk in 4 or 5 stocks.
9. Trade market order.
10. Dont clsoe your trades without a good reason.
11. Accumulate a surplus
12. Never buy just to get a dividend.
13. Never average a loss.
14. Never get out/in of the market because of impatience or anxiety.
15. Avoid taking small profits and big losses.
16. Never cancel a stop loss order after you placed it.
17. Avoid getting in and out of the market too often.
18. Be just as willing to seel short as you are to buy. Let your object be to keep with the trend and make money.
19. Never buy/sell just because the price is low/high.
20. Wait till the stock is very active and has crossed resistance levels before pyramiding.
21. Select stocks with small volume of shares outstanding to pyramid on the buying side.
22. Never hedge one stock by another.
23. Trade with a plan and do not get out without a definite indication of a change in trend.
24. Avoid increasing trading size after a long period of success.