Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Are Next to Worthless, and You Can Do Better [Hardcover]

Dan Gardner (Author)

Book Description

Release date: March 17, 2011

An award-winning journalist uses landmark research to debunk the whole expert prediction industry, and explores the psychology of our obsession with future history.

In 2008, experts predicted gas would hit $20 a gallon; it peaked at $4.10. In 1967, they said the USSR would be the world's fastest-growing economy by 2000; by 2000, the USSR no longer existed. In 1908, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart- throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future- everything from the weather to the likelihood of a terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it's so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts.

In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious book, journalist Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by UC Berkeley professor Philip Tetlock proved that the more famous a pundit is, the more likely he is to be right about as often as a stopped watch. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near.

Editorial Reviews

From Publishers Weekly

Gardner, a columnist and senior writer for the Ottawa Citizen (The Science of Fear), examines the misguided trust people place in media forecasters and "legions of experts" who make meaningless predictions about the future. He reviews the findings of psychologist Philip Tetlock, who had 284 experts from a range of disciplines make 27,450 predictions on political and economic trends, concluding they produced about the same results as random guesses. Biologist Paul Erhlich is one of his main targets. In 1968's The Population Bomb, Ehrlich predicted mass famines. In fact, Gardner points to America's "epidemic of obesity" and growing calorie intake worldwide. Gardner also probes economic and environmental worries, and warnings of wars, climate change, the Y2K hysteria, and the weather, which he says can be forecast with accuracy only at most two days out. Successful predictions are celebrated, Gardner says, while the wrong ones are forgotten. Yet he might have done well to remember more of those accurate predictions, and to focus more on Tetlock's conclusions about those experts who show greater accuracy and on how the public might recognize them. Instead, he writes off accurate predictions as "likely... a coincidence." (Mar. 17)
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From Booklist

We humans have an apparently insatiable appetite for predictions about the future, but the �experts� to whom we turn for predictions often do an exceedingly poor job of forecasting. Why? Drawing upon the research of psychologist Philip Tetlock, whose 20-year study of expert predictions suggested that experts were about as accurate in predicting the future as dart-throwing monkeys, as well as insights from cognitive science, Ottawa journalist Gardner argues that the problem is not lousy experts so much as our deeply rooted human need for certainty. Wanting definite, unqualified answers about the future, we encourage experts to make bold, unconditional predictions that often turn out to be wrong; but we are quick to forgive and forget. (Recall, for example, the many predictioneers who forecast clear economic sailing through the fall of 2008). Like his earlier work, in which Gardner also explored the challenge of dealing with uncertainty (The Science of Fear, 2009), this selection urges (and demonstrates) a calm, rational perspective; a healthy skepticism; and an effort to make peace with life�s uncertainties. --Brendan Driscoll

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Product Details

• Hardcover: 320 pages
• Publisher: Dutton Adult; First Edition edition (March 17, 2011)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0525952055
• ISBN-13: 978-0525952053
• Product Dimensions: 9.3 x 6.4 x 1.1 inches
• Shipping Weight: 1.2 pounds
• Average Customer Review: 4.2 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (30 customer reviews)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #104,660 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
  • #74 in Books > Politics & Social Sciences > Philosophy > Logic & Language

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Most Helpful Customer Reviews

38 of 38 people found the following review helpful

3.0 out of 5 stars Interesting Enough! April 2, 2011

By Kevin Currie-Knight TOP 500 REVIEWERVINE™ VOICE

Format:Hardcover

Future Babble is about a phenomenon that every one of us is familiar with but routinely ignore: experts get things wrong as much as they get things right when it comes to predictions. All of us know it; we complain about the weather man, scoff at the analysists who predict the winner of the Super Bowl before the season starts, and like to have good laughs over those expert predictions that we know now were wildly off the mark. But we routinely ignore it; we listen to the weather man, are intrigued by listening to anaylists predict Super Bowl winners, etc.

The "why" question can be broken into three questions: WHY do experts (who are, after all, experts) get things wrong, WHY do we listen to them despite knowing that many have gotten it wrong in the past, and WHY do experts persist in making predictions even though they (and we) know that expert predictions often go wrong?

Dan Gardner attempts to explain all of these and the answers take us through such fields as evolutionary psychology, behavioral economics, and (very, very basic) chaos theory. First question: why do experts get things wrong? Simply put, the world is very, very complicated and our brains are evolved to seek patterns. Especially when dealing with the social world - human history, politics, macroeconomics - the more we find out about how the world works, the more we understand that minute factors can have major and very unpredictable effects. Wars can start based on politicians slips of the tongue during speeches, the price of oil can be effected by civil wars breaking out in oil-producing region, which in turn can be affected by any number of things. Etc. Etc. But, experts are experts for a reason: they try to understand the world.... But sometimes, understanding the world means seeing patterns that really aren't patterns. And the irony is that sometimes, the more data an expert has, the more chances there are to see those patters. (It is here where our author uses the analogy of hedgehogs, who know a lot about one area, and foxes, who know a little about many areas. Foxes, he reports, tend to do better with prediction partly because they take more things into account, and partly because they are more likely to make tentative predictions rather than absolute ones.)

Next, why do we crave listening to expert prediction despite the fact that we know the track record of expert prediction? Because another evolutionary trait of ours is a desire for certainty and control. Humans tend to do poorly when they feel they can't make sense of their environments (which is why torture is not as much about inflicting pain as on taking away victims' control and letting them feel helpless; it is also why people move more toward authoritarian religions in times of crisis and toward liberal religions in times of ease). The same desire for order that drives experts to predict is the same drive for order that makes us crave knowing what will come next. Despite the fact that we often know that expert prediction will often turn out wrong, we can't help ourselves; our love for the feeling of control and certainty is often just too strong.

Lastly, why do experts persist in making predictions even though THEY know the track record of expert predictions? The fault is both on the expert and the listener. As to the expert, they are just doing what they do. Experts are experts because they like analyzing data and trying to make sense of it. No papers get published reporting lack of correlation between variables; you become an expert by finding correlations between variables (even to the point where 'data mining' - or the 'finding' of correlations that are more about manipulating the data - is becoming a concern in academia). And where is the fault on the listener? Quite honestly, we crave expert predictions and very seldom remember those that failed (to hold those experts accountable). What's more: we not only crave prediction, but the stronger the better! We like confident prediction - "x will happen in 10 years" rather than "there is a 75% probability that x will happen in 10-13 years."

I found this book to be not only stimulating (if pessimistic) but entertaining. But I also found it to be a bit repetitive, quite honestly. While it is fun to listen to long stories of expert prediction gone wrong - the incessant prediction of an oil drought in the 1970's, the pessimism toward America's future in the 1980's, the hubris of the market analysists in the mid 2000's, it gets tiresome when it is done chapter after chapter after chapter. Secondly, while the insights into this book were intriguing, many of them are covering ground gone over in previous books like The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With a new section: "On Robustness and Fragility", On Being Certain: Believing You Are Right Even When You're Not, and Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets. If you've read books of this ilk - behavioral economic works that discuss cognitive mistakes humans often make - not much in this book will be new to you.

Otherwise, the book is a decent read. The author's explanations are clear, the examples (if you are interested in hearing funny stories of bad expert predictions) are well chosen, and the authors ability to explain concepts from many different fields makes for an intriguing read. I predict this will get to about 55 on the Best Seller list by the end of 2011 and fall off by the beginning of 2012...unless, of course, I am wrong. Read more ›

33 of 34 people found the following review helpful

5.0 out of 5 stars Eat, Drink, & Be Merry, for Tomorrow We (Might) Die March 20, 2011

By William Holmes VINE™ VOICE

Format:Hardcover|Amazon Verified Purchase

Gardner's "Future Babble" is a much needed antitode to the endless stream of nonsense that we hear from pundits who claim to be able to predict the future. Broadly speaking, Gardner distinguishes between two types of experts: Hedgehogs, who know a given subject extremely well, are very confident about their predictions and are almost always wrong, often spectacularly so; and Foxes, whose opinions about the future recognize the difficulties and complexity of forecasting and are nuanced accordingly. The Foxes are only a bit more apt to be on target than the Hedgehogs, but they will at least acknowledge their errors, recognize the limitations of their art and adjust their opinions to account for new facts. They are also routinley ignored because they are boring.

Unfortunately, people crave certainty, so they lionize experts who make bold, articulate predictions about what will happen five, ten, fifteen, even fifty years from now, a proposition that is inherently suspect when you consider that chaos theory shows that even small changes in initial assumptions will dramatically change long-term outcomes. Fortunately for the experts and their livelihood, listeners do an incredibly poor job of holding experts accountable for their gross errors. We remember the rare hits and ignore the many, many misses, a point that Gardner illustrates elelgantly and repeatedly.

With wit and broad knowledge of his subjects, Gardner skewers numerous still famous "experts" who have routinely been wrong about things like the price of oil, the scarcity or abundance of commodities, population growth, Y2K, the collapse or persistence of the Soviet Union, and a host of other problems.... He also explains the psychological reasons--confirmation bias, negativity bias, anchoring bias, hindsight bias, optimism bias, and even "bias bias"--that enables experts to maintain their self-confidence despite their manifest errors, and that causes the rest of us to keep hanging on their every word despite the fact that they are usually wrong. We are drawn to those who are "often in error, but never in doubt" rather than those who recognize that predictions are very hard to make, especially about the future.

Gardner's survey of experts who remain highly esteemed to this day--and the howlers they have propogated over the decades--makes us wonder why on earth anyone still listens to these people. And yet they do, and corporations and news networks pay them enormous amounts of money for being repeatedly and ridiculously wrong. Imagine if your doctor's diagnoses were as off base as the predictions that famous experts routinely make--you'd soon get a new doctor (assuming you survived).

As a reality check, just ask yourself how many talking heads predicted in January that in the first quarter of 2011 we would see the fall of kleptocracies in Egypt and Tunisia, unrest throughout the Arab world, a civil war and an international military intervention in Libya, and an earthquake and tsunami that devastated Japan. And those are short term (missed) predictions--how can we possibly take anyone seriously when they try to read the tea leaves five, ten or fifty years out? If you think that works well, try planning your picnics based on 10-day weather forecasts. We'll keep listening, though, as the same talking heads who completely missed all of these huge short-term developments will confidently tell us what's bound to happen next--they might be right (even a blind hog finds an acorn now and again), but odds are they will be dead wrong. Gardner's timely book reminds us not to be fooled by Broad Speculations, and his book is a wonderful grain of salt that every thinking person should take before listening to an expert pontificate about the future. Read more ›

19 of 19 people found the following review helpful

5.0 out of 5 stars Don't Miss This One - Outstanding! March 22, 2011

By Book Fanatic TOP 500 REVIEWERVINE™ VOICE

Format:Hardcover

William Holmes in his review did a wonderful job of summarizing what this book is all about and since I agree with that summary I won't repeat it. I bought this book because the topic was appealing to me and I had read Gardner's previous book "The Science of Fear" and loved it.

Future Babble is hilarious and that makes it a wonderfully enjoyable read, but that's just a bonus because thesis itself is powerful and very well supported. It matters because the topic is incredibly important. What more could you ask for?

His case is devastating and frightening at the same time. How people like Paul Erlich and his supporters (to take one example) can continue to insist they were right in the face of the total failure of their predictions is a testament to human hubris. That we can be so blind to our own thinking is bad enough. What makes it worse is that apparently the more you know the worse it gets.

This book belongs in the library of every thinking person. We can sit around and rationalize why this expert or that expert is likely to be correct in their predictions of the future (such as both sides on the climate debate), but we need to face some facts. The historical record in this regard is a so bad it is actually funny. Gardner does a better and more enjoyable job of explaining why than any other author I've encountered.

Big thumbs up for this one!

9 of 9 people found the following review helpful

5.0 out of 5 stars A timely update to the Madness of Crowds November 7, 2010

By S. Blakey

Format:Kindle Edition|Amazon Verified Purchase

Dan Gardner eloquently illustrates that Socrates was correct in saying the wise know what they don't know but that most people will ignore the wise if provided a confident sounding alternative.

Gardner provides an up to date summary of research in psychology and many, many well documented examples of both the failings of over confidence and the human propensity to fall for the confident story, especially ones own.

An excellent read and resource for anyone needing reminding of the madness of crowds or a counter to over confident forecasters.