28 of 29 people found the following review helpful:
5.0 out of 5 stars
Crunching the number-crunchers, February 10, 2007
This review is from: The Future of Everything: The Science of Prediction (Hardcover)
Physicists insist that time travel is impossible. For physical objects, the speed of light cannot be exceeded, and that velocity is too firmly tied to the passage of time to be violated. Another form of time travel exists, however, one that's mental instead of physical. Using various numerical tools, we can undertake "travel" into the future. By doing so we shift the foundations of how we undertake planning and make decisions. How we do this and how well we've succeeded and what that bodes for the future is the theme of this study. A clearly organised and well-written effort, this book should have significant impact.
In Greek mythology, "Apollo's Arrow" [the book's original Canadian title] was a form of time machine. Those fortunate enough to seize the passing arrow could be conveyed over obstructions and help perceive events. Orrell uses this as a metaphor to examine the forecasting of three significant elements: weather, health and wealth. Although at first glance these seem wildly disparate, he explains how the methods applied to them are very similar. And with similar results.
Orrell opens with a discussion of the ancient "forecasters" of Delphi where the prophecies of the Pythian Apollo were expressed. Although these prophecies were obscure and possibly misleading, people made decisions based on what they believed was said. From the beginning, some petitioners to the Oracle were favoured over others, allowing them to dictate conditions. The mathematician Pythagoras added a new dimension to the forecasts by applying the power of numbers to them - although the method by which this was accomplished remains unknown. Nevertheless, today's forecasting is based on numerical analytical methods. Are they a real improvement over Apollo's expressions?
Orrell begins answering that question with everybody's favourite topic - the weather. Although the ancients made many attempts to understand the workings of weather, it wasn't until the Renaissance that real gains were achieved. The invention of the thermometer and barometer initiated measurements that could be recorded and analysed over time. Further technological leaps seem to bring better forecasts. Robert FitzRoy, "evolution's captain" initiated the first forecasting service across the British Isles. Although complex mathematical models have since ensued, Orrell argues that the systems under investigation are too vulnerable to small perturbations to allow truly reliable forecasts of weather systems.
The same inhibition holds true for the other fields of Orrell's presentation, health and wealth. No matter how well refined and tested the model, little incidents or influences can skew the final pictures. Small, almost undetectable factors have the capacity to set in train a cascade of unforeseeable outcomes, rendering the most carefully conceived model ineffective. Trying to fit the model into the real world's events as they unfold results in the designers engaging in hand-wringing and often weak excuses. Orrell is mildly scornful that failures of models predicting events don't seem to discourage the modellers from making strong assertions about how well they are doing. In his mind, this can be amusing in some cases, but disastrous in others. He would not abandon numerical models or forecasting, but insists that these techniques be approached and used realistically. Those affected by the models will also have more realistic expectations. That is a message that needs wide exposure and it's hoped this book will help provide that. Uncritical acceptance of forecasts, no matter how authoritative they may appear, can lead to serious consequences. Understanding the limitations and shortcomings is vital [stephen a. haines - Ottawa, Canada]
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21 of 22 people found the following review helpful:
5.0 out of 5 stars
A Fascinating Analysis of Scientific Prediction, February 16, 2007
This review is from: The Future of Everything: The Science of Prediction (Hardcover)
This book concentrates on three main, seemingly unrelated, subjects: the weather, human health and the economy. In particular, the focus is on the shortcomings of the computer models that are used to make predictions in each of these disciplines. The author's argument is that "model error", more than any other reason such as chaos theory, is to blame for the models' inability to accurately predict future (especially longer range) developments in these areas. The writing style is clear and friendly, as well as quite engaging. I did find a few passages a bit heavy going, requiring a couple of re-reads so that I could better grasp what the author was saying. This is a fascinating book from which I learned quite a bit about the ways in which forecasts are made and why they are so often wrong. This book should be of interest to everyone with inkling towards the above disciplines, but especially science buffs.
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8 of 8 people found the following review helpful:
5.0 out of 5 stars
The pros, cons and uncertainties of prediction science., March 11, 2007
This review is from: The Future of Everything: The Science of Prediction (Hardcover)
How can we predict the future, and can past discoveries help interpret tomorrow's events, from weather to finances? It's time for another probe of prediction science and THE FUTURE OF EVERYTHING: THE SCIENCE OF PREDICTION offers the latest research and methods, examining how past scientists predicted the future and how modern scientists forecast events. The author received his doctorate in mathematics from Oxford: his background provides a grounded, rational examination which considers the pros, cons and uncertainties of prediction science.
Diane C. Donovan
California Bookwatch
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