Customer Reviews

The Future in Plain Sight : Nine Clues to the Coming Instability

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1 star:		(3)

 

 

Eugene Linden explains that most of civilization's history has included long periods of remarkable stability, including the last few decades. However, stability is not the norm and indications show it is ending. Thanks to overpopulation, technological change and environmental degradation, profound instability is likely in this century. The clues to future instability are in plain sight. You can see them when you compare what has happened in the past to what is likely to happen in the future.

In the first half of this book, Linden makes a persuasive case for some of his basic predictions, though he is definitely a pessimist. The scenarios in the second half of the book, intended to illustrate what will happen if these predictions come true, are really speculative fiction masquerading as futurology. Still, Linden's basic premise is sound and his warnings should be taken seriously. We... recommend the book to those involved in long-range business planning and trend research.

Author Linden's basic premise is that history fluctuates between periods of stability and instability. The last half of the 20th century was stable. The first half of the 21st promises to be anything but stable. The book is tremendously well thought out, and persuasive.

Linden visits nine areas, including climate change, increased population and larger cities, resource depletion, environmental degradation, religious fundamentalism/fanaticism, economic instability, etc. These analyses are then followed by realistic, but speculative, scenarios describing life in the event of the anticipated change. Author Linden does an excellent job in avoiding the Cassandra-style, apocalyptic language so common to writers in this area. Surely, the facts alone are sufficient, and Linden is to be praised for discerning the difference.

All are well done, but I was particularly impressed by the chapter on religious fundmentalism. As Linden so carefully describes matters, this fundamentalism, Christian or Muslim, is a response to the scientific and economic uncertainty of today's society. The true believer yearns to return to a simpler, more certain, time, and is perfectly willing to throw out the baby with the bath water to get it, including equal rights, scientific advances, better living conditions, etc. Anyone skeptical of this statement is invited to consider Iran, the Taliban, Creationism, and the like. I have not found Linden's peer in describing the origin and effects of religious fundamentalism on society as we know it. The whole book is more than worth it for this one chapter alone. Every thinking person should read it.

In short, the book is an outstanding addition to anyone's library. I recommend it very highly.

Dispelling the cyber-utopian and financial boom scenarios, exemplified by Wired Magazine and Harry Dent respectively, Mr. Linden describes possible (and all too probable) flashpoints and meltdowns of the 21st century. All of them exist currently in their incipient forms and threaten, singly or in unison, to plunge the planet into ecological and financial chaos and anarchy. First these problems are described and analyzed, then woven into fictional stories of the year 2050. The author finally provides a glimmer of hope in the assertion that humans are a resourceful species and have extricated themselves from difficult situations before. Perhaps he can influence politicians, business people, scientists and the rest of us to make critical changes in our way of life.

I read one or two of these futurist books a year and I found this as good as any. He has done a good job of categorizing all the things that effect civilization on the planet.As with most of these types of books we are shown that most trends have come out of nowhere and completely unforseen and unpredicted.Of course; there has always been struggles between peoples,natural disasters,major outbreaks of diseases,financial upheavels,conflicts among religions and political ideologies,rich and poor,elimination of resources and species,and on and on.At any point in history when one stops and looks back one sees a string of major events causing great turmoil at the time but as time goes on they all get consumed in the process and progress.However;looking forward always tends to make one think that we have been lucky so far ;but all indicators are pointing at the future as being on a direct path to disaster.Nobody knows what the future will bring ,but if we have to guess,it must be bad.Normally, predictions in books like this are so vague that no matter what the future brings it can be construed to fit the prediction. The other approach is to make the prediction so far in the future that nobody remembers it.A case in point; that the limiting factor for the number of vehicles would be that there was only enough rubber trees to make so many tires,..guess what, we learned to make synthetic tires which ended up better and cheaper.
It's tough enough to predict the near (a couple of years)future, but when it comes to several decades--it' fun to fantasize,but don't take it seriously.
The author thought he would try anyway.So,remember now, he wrote this book in 1998.He came up with the idea of terrorists exploding a home made fifteen-kiloton nuclear device on the outskirts of Las Vegas killing 8000 people in 2006.This caused a crisis that wrecked all the world economies for years to come.
Lo and behold in 2001, just 3,not 8 years;such an event ,9/11 happened and the world's financial systems didn't crumble.It just shows the resiliance of mankind.
Anyway,Linden has really detailed the issues ahead,but the future remains to be seen.A good read nonetheless.Maybe one should put it away for someone to read in 2050;and I doubt that he'll be off in the wilderness ,dressed in a robe,tending his little herd of sheep,on his little self-sufficient family farm.That is, unless that is where he is ,and what he is doing now.

Bought the book six months ago, read it and almost forgot it. But look out -- author Eugene Linden's bold predictions are coming true. Read the book to get a real glimpse of the near future -- in plain sight. Find out what stocks to short -- Linden will point the way. A page turner all the way, and then you'll go back to highlight every prescient nugget. The Chief salutes you, Mr. Linden.

Borrowed this book from the library just because I was borrowing the Parrot's Lament (another of his books). If for no other reason, one should read this book to marvel that in 1999 he's writing about periodic financial crises. Primarily currency crises to be sure, but here he is discussing bailouts and "moral hazard" and gosh, that's the situation we're in now aren't we?

Economic migration and the likelihood of unrest if there is widespread unemployment in a geographic region (resource depletion and overpopulation would be related this) is another topic he raises and today we can see our migrant workers returning to points south or back to India or China and for years my mother in Michigan has been telling me anecdotes about the unemployed who are financially trapped in Michigan. Meanwhile, a friend in Shanghai writes that he's watching with interest and trepidation how 200 million migrant workers (now unemployed) in China will express their social frustration. The topics he raised in 1999 when this book was published seem very prescient in light of the news over the past year. Certainly he's not the only such writer, but it was certainly good for me to come across this book and I commend it to you.

This review pertains to the 1998 hardcover edition which is now 10 years old. Linden downplays the appropriateness of making predictions about the future, and then, after spending about half the book talking about possible "clues" to future instability, he goes ahead and imagines future scenarios. Most of them seem somewhat quaint in retrospect. 9/11 and the Bush administration have ended up sending the US on a trajectory that he could not have imagined near the end of the Clinton administration. Even so, this book does bring to light some important thoughts about the possibility of instability in various areas affecting society worldwide in the near future. Most people alive today have lived their whole lives in a realitively stable world, and here in the US we have lived most of our lives under very stable circumstances. I think Linden is reasonable to suggest that this stability will probably not last indefinitely. The last part of the book is probably the most general. He talks about instability in somewhat less specific terms, and presents some ideas about how consumer society might not be sustainable. In any case, this book is an interesting read, even if it is a bit out of date with respect to events that have happened since its original publication.

A comprehensive and sobering overview of current trends apt to disrupt life in the near future. Thought provoking and challenging. A good companion to Jared Diamond's work ("Collapse," "Guns, Germs and Steel," etc.)

The original subtitle of this book was "Nine clues to the coming instability." One must infer that the revision to "The Rise of the 'True Believers' and other clues to the coming instability" is a post 9-11 addition to boost sales. (The chapter about fundamentalist religious movements was already in place.) I mention this by way of pointing out that this book as originally written was NOT principally about the rise of Islam or retrograde Christianity. That's just one of the nine and last on the list to boot. I read the 1998 edition and don't know how (or if) the author might have restructured this 2002 iteration--judging from other reviews I don't think he made significant changes.

In the first ten chapters Linden examines the following trends: 1)volatility in the money market--including the (then) recent meltdowns in Asia and Mexico; 2)massive growth of very poor cities; 3)the ongoing population explosion; 4)the increasing gulf between rich and poor; 5)Antarctic melting; 6)the current extinction spasm; 7)food shortfalls; 8)the resurgence of infectious diseases; and 9)the rise of true believers. His analysis is thoughtful and insightful, directing readers' attention to specific shifts that most of us probably missed in the rush of daily news. The author then lays out a handful of plausible scenarios for life in 2050 if current trends continue.

It is easy to diss those who attempt to read today's tea leaves and weave a tale about tomorrow. Linden quotes Cicero: "No soothsayer should be able to look at another soothsayer without laughing." In this case Linden has overlooked only one elephant in our communal living room--but it is a biggie. The end of low cost petroleum (often referred to as the peak oil phenomenon) was well known to many of us way back in the 1980s, and, of course, Hubbert made his extremely accurate predictions back in the 1950s. Though Linden refers to resource depletion in the broad sense, the collapse of oil that is beginning now will have a devastating impact on modern technological civilizations.

Altogether, however, a very worthwhile read.

Got this a few weeks ago. Before I finished reading it (three days) events described in section one had already started to unfold. If you have money in stocks, either have a ridiculously strong stomach or take your money and run like hell ! Live in Claifornia and this guy is on the money.

At a time when our leaders all too often take credit where none is due and place blame on those least deserving, it is refreshing to be reminded that much of fate lies beyond our control. The true test of character and leadership is in responding to the unknown. A must read for those looking for a fresh perspective on the inevitable human question of what does the future hold.