Customer Reviews

Future Savvy: Identifying Trends to Make Better Decisions, Manage Uncertainty, and Profit from Change

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You will not find a better book than Future Savvy on how to cultivate a forecasting mindset. I teach futuring workshops for mid-career professionals. I have just adopted Future Savvy as a textbook for my graduate students. Why? Future Savvy is accessible. It contains a wealth of managerial wisdom about bias traps, perceptive frameworks, change drivers and change blockers. You may know your industry, but Future Savvy will help you think beyond the limits of trend extrapolation to analyze your changing macro context. It will teach you how to define a cone of uncertainty for your division or product line, and weigh the likelihood of alternatives disrupting your business. Finally, you will take away questions to ask any business or government forecast, to separate the wheat from the chaff.

Yes, you could find a more technical book on forecasting methods. You could get a more detailed book on short-term operational business forecasting. You could even buy a more entertaining book on erroneous predictions. But you will not find a better book to under gird both sense making and decision making in an organizational context. Unlike a lot of futurist fluff out there, this book delivers on its promise.

'Future Savvy; Identifying Trends to Make Better Decisions, Manage Uncertainty, & Profit from Change', by Adam Gordon;

While reviewing this book, my curious mind somehow retrogresses to the early eighties, which had given me my first exciting encounter with strategic management, more specifically, the domain of planning & forecasting.

I was then involved in corporate planning & research of a Malaysian conglomerate based in Singapore.

I recall my first introductory book, among a few others (including George Steiner's 'Strategic Planning'), to help me understand & appreciate the basics of horizontal scanning, was actually Francis Aguilar's 'Scanning the Business Environment'. It was in fact my excellent field guide for many years.

Since then, I had become very fascinated by the subject of planning & forecasting, venturing into new ancillary fields like futurology or future studies, trend tracking, even after I had left the corporate world in the early nineties.

I had even joined the World Future Society & other learned institutions to gain more access to available resources.

From that subsequent period onward, all the way right up to even today, as part of my own strategy consulting as well as personal development, I began to develop a deep interest in state-of-the-art stuff like anticipatory management & developing strategic foresight.

Over the ensuing years, I have amassed, read & digested a whole gamut of good books as well as interesting articles, including watching webcasts & listening to podcasts.

It has never dawn on me that all the books on exploring the future & intelligence gathering, which I have now acquired in my personal library, could be placed on a continuum, just for the purpose of seeing where all the books stand syntopically, until recently:

- at one end, I have acquired the books that pertain to the broader methodologies of "exploring the future & scanning the horizon", e.g. 'The Art of the Long View' (Peter Schwartz), 'Strategic Foresight: Standing in the Future' (Nick Marsh), 'Futuring: The Exploration of the Future' (Edward Cornish), 'Thinking about the Future' (Peter Bishop), & including the works of Alvin Toffler, John Naisbitt, James Canton, Kees van der Heijden, Edie Weiner & Arnold Brown, Richard Slaughter, Peter Drucker, Joel Arthur Barker, Jennifer James, Margot Cairnes, Chantell Ilbury & Clem Sunter, just to name a few;

- at the other end, I have acquired the books that pertain to the tools of "sculpting information into informed decisions, & in turn, shaping the latter into incisive actions, with the effective use of technology", e.g. 'Information Management for the Intelligent Organisation' (Chun Wei Choo), 'InfoThink' (Mary Park), 'Info-Sense' (Keith Devlin), 'The Warning Solution' (Kristan Wheaton), 'Inside Information' (DVL Smith), 'Hearing the Voice of the Market' (Vincent Barabba), & including the works of Benjamin Gilad, George Day, Paul Schoemaker, Bob Johansen, Alain Martin, Frederick Timmerman, Thomas Buckholtz, just to name a few;

Standing back, with 'Future Savvy' right in front of me, I somehow feel very strongly that the author, Adam Gordon, has done a great job of more or less plugging the imaginary gap between the two perceived extremes, & thus pulling & tugging the twain together, resulting in an offering with the best of both worlds, so to speak.

More signifcantly, the author has provided us with a deliberate & disciplined critical thinking routine for coping with a rapidly-changing world.

I have really enjoyed perusing 'Future Savvy', especially for its battery of critical tests to evaluate the validity - also, exercise quality control & ensure 'future-fit' (between our strategic initiatives & the world out there) - of information from the torrential myriad of sources, like newspapers, economic insights from TV stations, conference presentations, industry papers, etc.

For me, I have found my favourite chapters to be those towards the second half of the book, from chapter 7 to 11.

As a matter of fact, I reckon that the last chapter, Chapter 11, offering the well-thought 'forecast filtering' checklist, together with the preceding chapter, Chapter 10, covering many case examples of application, is actually worth the price of the entire book.

I also appreciate the author's many fine distinctions, e.g. future-aligning vs future-influencing forecasting, point forecasts vs multiple scenarios, the dynamics of system variables in a forecast, maintaining a wise balance between uncertainty/complexity & quantitative modeling, etc.

In a nut shell, the author has shown in great detail how to come up with realistic predictive statements, so as to dovetail or resonate in some way with our particular circumstances, fortuitous timing & even good fortune, which often play into eventual outcomes.

The book is almost written like a scholarly exposition, but the author, fortunately, doesn't bother the reader with historical facts & theoretical perspectives often found in forecasting books.

With succinctness & clarity, he goes straight into the jugular to help readers to identify the factors that most often derail the potentially good predictive process.

His principal premise is very clear from the start: "Forecasts are a crucial decision-making success resource . . . but these forecasts are often badly done or done with a purpose to influence the future (i.e. not to neutrally predict it.) . . ."

He argues that, as decision-makers, we "need to be able to judge how good a forecast is - so as to know how to or whether to factor it into our world view".

Also, again as decision makers, we "need to be able to critically judge which predictive statements are worth planning for & investing in".

To end this review, I must qualify that this book does not supercede or diminish the importance of all the other book resources I have highlighted earlier. Those mentioned books are worth pursuing on their own, especially if you are like me, always wanting to have a clearer view of the future.

To take a creative cue from creativity guru Michael Hewitt-Gleeson from Down Under, a BVS (better view of the situation) > (greater than; which is measured as a ten times by this author;) CVS (current view of the situation).

From my perspective, both as a consumer & a practitioner, Adam Gordon's 'Future Savvy' is definitely a highly useful & much-needed addition to the strategy repertoire of a 21st century manager.

[Incidentally, more information about Adam Gordon & his work can be found at his weblog on Amazon.

Also, very interestingly, he has acknowledged in his book that Peter Bishop, author of 'Thinking about the Future: Guidelines for Strategic Foresight', another wonderful book from my perspective, especially for its 115 superb guidelines, as his teacher & mentor for many years.]

Reviewed by Lee Say Keng, Knowledge Adventurer & Technology Explorer, November 2008

There are a lot of books about trends and forecasts -- and increasingly, TV programs that look at the future. Some are excellent and some not so good.

Future Savvy provides a guide on how to assess trends and forecasts and sort out the useful from the hype or the down-right false. Adam Gordon does a fine job of discussing the subtleties of working with trends and forecasts. The writing is clear and concise; it is simple without being simplistic.

It is a "must-read" book for anyone with a personal or professional interest in foresight.

Future Savvy has had a profound impact on the way in which I evaluate forecasts, interpret information, and assess the structural components of change. Adam Gordon provides a clear, well-ordered methodology that serves to illuminate the relevance and validity of forecasting information - leading us, ultimately, to make better-informed decisions about the future. Future Savvy captures the essence of crucial concepts in strategic foresight and provides immediately useful tools and approaches that allow the "forecast consumer" to better judge the real threats and opportunities.

The future ain't what it used to be said Yogi Berra. Maybe he was thinking of the many failed predictions of the future that have been served up over long periods of time by futurologists, experts and ordinary people alike. Berra could have said it ain't easy to remember the future. At least not everything that is being said about it. And that may be just as well as most of it will probably turn out to be wrong. Then again, maybe not so fast. Help is here as I have recently learned.

In Future Savvy author Adam Gordon takes the art of thinking about the future a step further and looks at forecasting and prediction making from the perspective of being the reader, i.e. the consumer, of such information. In plain language and refreshingly free from tables and graphs, Future Savvy takes the reader through a series of forecast and prediction related problems and challenges. And it does so with a great deal of insight and with reference to many little gems of forecast failure.
Headlines like "why numbers aren't as solid as they seem", "bias traps" and "chaos, complexity and wicked problems" give you an idea of what to expect.
As I was reading through the text and recalling some predictions I myself have seen, I started to get a better understanding of why quite a few went spectacularly wrong.
Towards the end I thought this is very interesting but it would be even more so if there had been some reviews of actual forecasts as well. And as I turn the page, voilà there it is.
In chapter ten Gordon comments on six actual forecasts applying his own analytical framework. The book then finishes with a summary of important questions the savvy reader of future forecasts must ask.

While forecasting techniques at least are better than astrology and fortune telling, they seem to far from always result in reliable predictions. As Gordon puts it in the last chapter, "forecasts are an indispensable but highly patchy guide to the world of tomorrow". Keeping a copy of Future Savvy handy while reading and making sense of forecasts is not a bad idea. It would in fact be a rather good idea, if you also wish to gently step into the future guided by how others say they see it.
Some books are interesting and enjoyable to read. Some are useful. In my opinion, Adam Gordon's book is both.

Adam Gordon explains how to "identify trends to make better decisions, manage uncertainty, and profit from change." To the extent possible, he presents the material in layman's terms so that it is accessible to those who have only recently begun a career in business as well as to C-level executives. It will hardly be an "easy read" for the former, to be sure, but he patiently explains the fundamentals (including nomenclature) of forecasting. The audience he has in mind includes decision makers in commercial, policy, and nonprofit sectors but also "ordinary people" in daily life; in fact, he hopes that his book will help almost everyone "to make better judgments about predictions they read and hear, so they can appropriately plan for an profit from the future." Given recent developments in the US economy and their implications and probable impact insofar as the global economy is concerned, the publication of this book is indeed timely.

As Gordon explains, he follows a middle course "between an uncritical reliance on prediction and overcynical dismissal of it" as he examines subjects that include the broad categories of forecasts, evaluation of the forecast information and data, forces "that drive and block change...and how forecasts deal with them," the role of value (or "utility") when determining the direction of and timing of future outcomes, potential problems with trend-based forecasting, issues related to complexity (e.g. the interconnectedness of all elements of the world, how the change of one can affect all others), themes that illuminate the uses and limitations of quantitative forecasting, and approaches to forecasting based on development of alternative futures and scenarios. In Chapter 10, Gordon provides illustrations of the processes of forecast filtering by apply it to sample forecasts that decision makers in business and policy areas might interact with in negotiating the future. "The aim is to demonstrate how examples of real-world foresight may be probed following the principles developed in previous chapters. Then in the next and final chapter, Gordon notes that forecasts "are an indispensable but highly patchy guide to the world of tomorrow" and, for that reason, offers a series of questions (with annotations) that should be asked of any forecast.

For me, some of the most valuable material is provided in Chapter 8. Gordon acknowledges that there is no perfect tool for approaching high complexity, high-uncertainty situations. However, systems dynamics "does tackle complex situations head-on and gives us some advantages in anticipating `archetypal' change situations, thus alerting us to forecast errors." He explains how systems are modeled, why reinforcing loops can be either "vicious" or "virtuous" cycles, why balancing loops are "the change dampers," how to chart multiple simultaneous causes and effects, why causal loops are nonpredictive, how to anticipate systemic effects on personal behavior, how to anticipate critical mass and "tipping points," how to anticipate forecasts designed to stimulate a virtuous cycle, how to anticipate S-curves and the limits of change, how to anticipate accelerations or delays, how to anticipate oscillations and pendulum swings, and how to question the "exponential change view." In fact, Gordon asserts that the exponential change view is invalid and why forecasts based on this view will overestimate change.

As I read the material in this chapter, I was reminded of a Hebrew aphorism that suggests that man plans and then God laughs. Gordon seems to agree, suggesting that any forecast is (at best) only a "best guess" at what could happen in "the world of tomorrow." Hence the importance of possessing sufficient and current information. Also the importance of rigorous and redundant verification so that the information is updated in a timely manner. And the importance of challenging all assumptions and premises. Gordon also points out that good forecasting "is as much about seeing what won't change in the future. Even in fast-moving situations, not everything will change. In fact, many human and social needs and aspirations are timeless." True, this is not an "easy read" but Gordon refuses to dumb-down the material and I appreciate that. Also, the fact that he is not infatuated (obsessed?) with any one system or methodology, although he obviously has his preferences and valid reasons for them.

Those who read this book and then wish to read more about the subject are urged to check out the "Further Reading" section. More a quibble than a complaint, I wish Gordon had provided some annotations with the sources he recommends or had at least identified those he believes would be of greatest interest and value to those such as I who have a significant knowledge gap to fill. That said, this book is a brilliant achievement for which I congratulate him.

Future Savvy by the consulting futurist Adam Gordon is an excellent overview of what can be and what should not be believed in forecasts of the future. The book is written to help corporate managers, especially marketing managers, frame more realistic expectations for the future and avoid the many traps of forecasting, especially linear trend projections. Gordon provides an excellent discussion of how important starting assumptions are and how they can lead forecasts into erroneous zones. He also provides a very useful approach to understanding consumer value and how it shifts over time.

Excellent book! Would make a great textbook for a "future thinking" class. Outstanding review of bias, utility (economic term) and their impact on forecasts. "Future Savvy" is a definite must for anyone that has to utilize forecasts (which is almost everybody...since the media treats many forecasts as fact).

The book includes a great overview of scenario planning. Scenario planning is a process that can help forecast users deal with uncertainty and macro-environment forces that can't be forecast but can have enormous impact.

I would strongly recommend this book to individuals with interest in identifying trends and making decisions. It is very good at descussing how people make mistakes in future predictions due to their experiences, education, emotions, etc.

Why do some business predictions come true while others miss the mark entirely? What do companies need to clearly assess their pros, cons, and changing trends? FUTURE SAVVY holds keys to evaluating business, technology, and more, offering a methodology for researching and analyzing trends and data. More than just another business structure guide, it's a key to applying a range of critical tests to business purposes, and is a fine pick for any business collection.

Diane C. Donovan
California Bookwatch