Future Scenarios: How Communities Can Adapt to Peak Oil and Climate Change [Paperback]

David Holmgren (Author)

Book Description

Publication Date: April 14, 2009

In Future Scenarios, permaculture co-originator and leading sustainability innovator David Holmgren outlines four scenarios that bring to life the likely cultural, political, agricultural, and economic implications of peak oil and climate change, and the generations-long era of "energy descent" that faces us.

"Scenario planning," Holmgren explains, "allows us to use stories about the future as a reference point for imagining how particular strategies and structures might thrive, fail, or be transformed."

Future Scenarios depicts four very different futures. Each is a permutation of mild or destructive climate change, combined with either slow or severe energy declines. Probable futures, explains Holmgren, range from the relatively benign Green Tech scenario to the near catastrophic Lifeboats scenario.

As Adam Grubb, founder of the influential Energy Bulletin Web site, says, "These aren't two-dimensional nightmarish scenarios designed to scare people into environmental action. They are compellingly fleshed-out visions of quite plausible alternative futures, which delve into energy, politics, agriculture, social, and even spiritual trends. What they do help make clear are the best strategies for preparing for and adapting to these possible futures."

Future Scenarios provides brilliant and balanced consideration of the world's options and will prove to be one of the most important books of the year.

Editorial Reviews

About the Author

David Holmgren is best known as the co-originator with Bill Mollison of the permaculture concept following the publication of Permaculture One in 1978. Since then he has written several more books, developed three properties using permaculture principles, conducted workshops and courses in Australia, New Zealand, Europe and Japan. Within the growing and international permaculture movement, David is respected for his commitment to presenting permaculture ideas through practical projects and teaching by personal example, that a sustainable lifestyle is a realistic, attractive and powerful alternative to dependant consumerism. As well as constant involvement in the practical side of permaculture, David is passionate about the philosophical and conceptual foundations for sustainability which are highlighted in his latest book, Permaculture: Principles and Pathways Beyond Sustainability. With this book already on its second print run, and an increasingly high profile as a public speaker, David Holmgren provides leadership with his refreshing and unorthodox approach to the environmental issues of our time.

David lives with his partner Su Dennett and their son Oliver at "Melliodora", a one-hectare permaculture demonstration site at Hepburn Springs, Central Victoria, Australia. Visit his web site at http://.www.holmgren.com.au.

Product Details

• Paperback: 136 pages
• Publisher: Chelsea Green Publishing (April 14, 2009)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 1603580891
• ISBN-13: 978-1603580892
• Product Dimensions: 7.9 x 4.9 x 0.4 inches
• Shipping Weight: 6.4 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)
• Average Customer Review: 4.4 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (5 customer reviews)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #97,716 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

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Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

19 of 19 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Amazingly accessible book - Great Gift!, March 18, 2010

By 

Kevin (Point Roberts, WA USA) - See all my reviews

Amazon Verified Purchase

This review is from: Future Scenarios: How Communities Can Adapt to Peak Oil and Climate Change (Paperback)

Considering how David Holmgren and Bill Mollison created Permaculture, I thought I'd go ahead and order this book on Future Scenarios: How Communities Can Adapt to Peak Oil and Climate Change to understand David's thoughts on these subjects.

I was prepared for another hard-to-read book similiar to the author's previous book: Permaculture: Principles and Pathways Beyond Sustainability. I found that book extremely difficult to get through, although it was filled with many great ideas. I can't say I'd recommend that book to anyone outside the sustainability field. My recommendation for learning about Permaculture remains Introduction to Permaculture by Bill Mollison (pricey but by far the best).

When I started reading Future Scenarios, I was delighted to find that he must now either have a new editor or a ghost writer - This is an amazing book, relatively easy to read, and filled with ideas and perspectives on the future convergence of Peak Oil and Climate Change that I haven't read anywhere else.

I can easily recommend this book for all audiences, both experienced and those new to these concepts. I even gave this to my father to read as an introduction to Peak Oil. After reading this, he now wants to learn about Permaculture!

13 of 13 people found the following review helpful:

4.0 out of 5 stars Holmgren's 'Future Scenarios' - an essential planning resource, July 14, 2009

By 

Mr. C. Sanderson - See all my reviews
(REAL NAME)   

Amazon Verified Purchase

This review is from: Future Scenarios: How Communities Can Adapt to Peak Oil and Climate Change (Paperback)

I would recommend this short book to anyone who has the task of creating a workshop for a community to develop strategies to deal with the converging threats of Peak Oil and Climate Change. Or indeed for anyone, who wants to understand these issues.

It would be an ideal planning resource for a rural based intentional community and in particular one that has embraced permaculture principles.

The book is short but dense, in the sense that every sentence and diagram needs to be considered and understood.

David Holmgren explores the four scenarios that could each represent our most likely future, depending on how well and how quickly the world's political leaders deal with this greatest challenge humanity has ever faced.

This quote from the back cover explains it well: "Future Scenarios depicts four very different futures. Each is a permutation of mild or destructive climate change, combined with either slow or severe energy declines. Probable futures, explains Holmgren, range from the relatively benign 'Green Tech' scenario to the near catastrophic `Lifeboats' scenario." Future Scenarios: How Communities Can Adapt to Peak Oil and Climate Change

Encouragingly, the G8 have recently adopted the target of reducing emissions recommended by the world's climate scientists for not exceeding the critical 2ºC of average global warming ([...]). It remains to be seen whether individual countries will do the same.

6 of 9 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Packed with invaluable applications for survival, May 17, 2009

By 

Midwest Book Review (Oregon, WI USA) - See all my reviews

This review is from: Future Scenarios: How Communities Can Adapt to Peak Oil and Climate Change (Paperback)

FUTURE SCENARIOS: HOW COMMUNITIES CAN ADAPT TO PEAK OIL AND CLIMATE CHANGE should be in every general lending library's collection: it comes from a permaculture co-originator and sustainability innovator and shows how to adapt to the cultural, political and economic implications of two forces that will shape our world in years to come: peak oil and climate change. Packed with invaluable applications for survival, this is not to be missed.