Customer Reviews

Future Wars: The World's Most Dangerous Flashpoints

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This was a 1993 book. Dupuy thought India could take Pakistan before the Paks could use their nukes, but he thought it would be really close. Even in 1993. Now Pakistan has a cheap cruise missile and a good shot at civil war.

Dupuy warns that the Intifada could block off Israeli roads and slow the IDF even if they killed 'hundreds of civilians'; which probably understates what the IDF would do.

This is not the late Col. Dupuys best work. It is a 'what if' book that goes beyond his normal mathematical approach to human events. Dupuy correctly illustrates the many'flash points' in the world, places like Israel, Pakistan, Central America, Russia, the Balkans. Yet he goes to far in 'forcasing' war in these regions. For instance: Egypt-Libya; their is almost no chance these nations would go to war and if they did the Libyans would be no match for the american/soviet equipped Egyptian army. Central america: The peace process here has brought and end to the 1980s style struggle and honestly these nations internal problems would not spill over the way Dupuy forcasts.

Dupuys worst scenario if the 6th arab-israeli war. Why? Normally Dupuy has been at the forefront of those that say history is important to analyze the future. But he is using bad history(odd for someone who wrote a book on the arb-israeli conflict) in his look at the 6th arab israeli war. First: he forecasts a staggering intifada that would help slow down the IDF in its lightning blitzkrieg to take out the combined arab armies. Dupuy for all is knowledge doesnt seem to realize that in 1967 when Israel took over the west bank the palistinains had a chance to fight alongside the jordanian protectors but they did little to know damage and had no effect on the war in the west bank. So how could they be any more successful now? Your telling me a bunch of rock throwing youth and a few guys with old AKs are going to stop the Israeli army, not this is just not the case. The palistinians wouldnt dent anything and the Israelis wouldnt be forced to 'massacre' them to get through.

A flawed book.

An author is a brave one indeed who writes about what might likely happen in the short future. Colonel Dupuy picks 10 different trouble spots in the world where he game-plays a complex conflict that might break out in just a few short years after publication of his book. Since there is no way all 10 could happen all at once in so short a time, probably only one -- at most two -- could even remotely happen. This does not matter. In fact, none of the scenarios occurred. At least not until this present day (2008). What matters is that the 10 global flash points selected take little mental prodding to believe in their possibility.

There are more obvious possibilities such as a sixth Arab-Israeli war, or a fourth India-Pakistan war. Then there are less obvious, but nevertheless quite plausible possibilities such as a Sandinista-Central America conflict, or a Libya-Egypt war, or a battle for control of Transylvania. None happened for real, but the thoroughness of research in "Future Wars" makes for fascinating reading. Especially well done are the preliminary excerpts in each conflict dealing with actual regional history leading up to the outbreak, and with brief rationales as causes for the "trigger to be pulled."

An endorsement by British General Sir John Hackett should be a huge testimonial for the experienced military history reader and analyst. Were it possible to be a reader of "Future Wars" in the year 1992, the book would certainly make one lose sleep!