Customer Reviews

Future Wealth

5 star:		(4)
4 star:		(3)
3 star:		(2)
2 star:		(3)
1 star:		(2)

 

 

I loved their last book BLUR because it was chock full of decisive, useful insights to leverage the economic change we face. They wrote of Bowie Bonds and other interesting concepts that are just warmed-over in Future Wealth. Future Wealth would make a great essay, but there's not enough new substance for a book. Still, I'll eagerly await their next book, for I know what this duo is capable of.

Future Wealth is the second book in a trilogy that began with Blur, by Stan Davis and Chris Meyer. The book builds a full argument on a small theme in Blur concerning the issue of Bowie Bonds by the rock composer and performer David Bowie. Seldom will you find a book with such a valuable insight into the likely future of capitalism.

Unlike most business books which just describe something that has been going on for some time, Future Wealth clearly goes beyond today into tomorrow. For those who are unfamiliar with scenario-based thinking, this book will seem strange. Experience shows that such thinking is extremely valuable for helping each of us prepare for things that may well happen.

Although some see nothing new in this book beyond Blur, that is clearly not the case. Blur ends with the Bowie Bonds example and Future Wealth begins there, but that is not the end.

The biggest idea in Future Wealth is that individuals need not have the volatility exposure to risk that makes each of us take a conservative financial course. The solution to volatility is to pool risk with a statistically significant number of others. This is the solution that makes insurance and mutual funds work better. David and Meyer have the insight to see that combining all aspects of our future, including our net worth, into such pools can allow us to take greater risk that will permit the potential for much greater reward. As a result, risk is our friend if we handle it properly.

They also see the systems potential of getting the present value of our economic potential available to us. We can use the funds to both expand our future income and net worth, while diversifying our risk. That is a fundamental insight that we should each pay attention to. Instead of being limited to the resources at hand, we can have virtually unlimited potential by investing in our futures using all of the potential resources that might be available to us. A public company is like a government, in that it can issue more stock to create more resources. Now, Davis and Meyer extend that perspective to the individual.

Turning around the current company-centered economic culture, they argue that companies should invest in their employees by helping them go public and taking a position alongside of them.

One of the great strengths of this book is that it suggests a fundamental new paradigm for growth and wealth. There is a set of public policy suggestions that emphasize greater social safety nets that permit each person to take on more risk that can expand wealth for the individual, the company and the society. They point out that the connected economy favors the potential for each of us to so much more.

In the future, thoughtful readers will remember this book as The Wealth of Nations for individuals. Good luck with developing your Future Wealth!

Future Wealth is populist, upbeat and a typical product of the latter stages of a booming stock market. It succeeds Blur by the same authors. The good times are going to last for ever, risk should be seen as opportunity, the way to the future is to find ways of borrowing the cash value of your skills and to commit it to the dance. Everyone's a winner, there are no losers (or they don't rate a mention). The book is interesting primarily as an example of shrewd marketing of reassurance into a boom economy.

First of all, when you look at the "Advance praise" section, you will see that one of the sources is Kenneth Lay, former chairman/CEO of the now-defunct Enron. If that doesn't scare you off, I don't know what will. In a book chock full of the bygone-Internet-era business terms, I did NOT find anything particularly novel or ground-breaking with this work. The concept of "human capital" is not a new idea; certainly Bill Gates has already put this concept to good use for nearly two decades. Also, the concept of marketing one's talents, while a sound idea, has major consequences which I'm surprised the authors did not place much emphasis on: Given the constant emphasis on training in school to improve your job skills, there has been and always will be growing intensity and competition in the job market -- this can already be seen in the market for engineers, where more versatile candidates get a better shot than specialists; the disastrous result would be a glut of engineers and techs, most whom will be unemployed (or underemployed). The same thing happened to lawyers in the 60's and 70's, MBA's in the 80's, and most recently, to doctors. Add to this the fact that a direct correlation between deteriorating skills and age has been established. So the whole "human intellect" as capital, while noble, is practically unsound. The sad reality is that we as human cogs in the wheel of work (skilled or not) are still depreciable assets. I am also surprised that the authors placed some emphasis on the efficient market as a basis for companies, etc. EMT is a theory whose soundness has been invalidated time and time again. Even more so recently, with all the "creative accounting" that has caused the market to crash just recently. Assuming that the book was written during the wave of post-Internet wealth euphoria, it must be only natural that there was no expectation that the markets would ever get into a downturn once the plain, good-ol' economics set in, and the poorly-managed, overvalued companies imploded unto themselves. I would strongly suggest that business owners NOT try their hand at doing any human capital accounting just yet, until they prove themselves competent at doing conventional (and legal) accounting practices. I would also strongly advise against running your business to market standards. I know that's a loaded statement, as businesses indeed do have to watch the market to stay competetive and retain their assets (especially employees), but to keep on changing just for the market's sake is just pure nonsense. As with a lot of the ideas here, most of it is speculative and defies common sense. Theoretical, yes; just not sensible. In general, economic theories should never, ever be taught unless proven experimentally, i.e., the battlefield of business, with a reasonable degree of success... this coming from an experimental physicist who knows damn well what he's talking about. The book lacks clear organization, and therefore does a poor job of relating their points, much less arguing the validity of such. As I said before, the main idea of treating human capital as assets is not a new idea. There are indeed sound ideas that could be manipulated in harnessing this vast pool of knowledge for the benefit of the greater good, but they aren't here in this book. I flatly recommend against ever buying this book -- just check it out at your local library, if a copy is available.

In their "Invitation to the Reader", the authors explain that they "strive to connect -- ourselves with you, you with each other, and all of us with the economic issues that define our times and our futures. Connect with us, and lob a grenade or two. Our conversation with each other is always respectful but not always polite." As they then explain, their book has five parts. "In the first, we outline our three themes [ie the growing efficiency of financial and real markets, the primacy of human capital, and the obsolescence of social capital] and the economic forces that are driving them. Then, in Parts II through IV, we look at how the themes play out for individuals, businesses, and society. We close with twenty "Perfect Futures" on the horizon (Part V)." As the authors already understand, the speed of change resembles a Blur but the same word can be used to describe the confusion which often results from high-speed change.

The authors seem to have several separate but related objectives, most of which are indicated in the brief excerpt just quoted. First, to explain certain themes as well as the economic forces which drive them. These themes are subject to change or at least to revision; also, the forces which now drive them may be replaced by others. Some of the authors' best thinking is found in Parts II through IV. Once again, in a Blur, the specifics in their analyses of individuals, businesses, and society may change but, in my opinion, the rationale for analysis which they follow will remain sound. With regard to Part V, Horizons", it is likely (if not certain) that several of the "Twenty Perfect Futures" will never materialize. But, again my opinion, that is not the salient point. Rather, the authors correctly insist that we must constantly formulate "perfect futures" in whatever number we prefer. Peter Schwartz and others have stressed the importance of mastering what Schwartz calls "the art of the long view." Presumably Davis and Meyer agree.

If after reading this book you think other themes driven by other forces are more important, fine. Presumably you will be as well-prepared to support your selections as Davis and Meyer are to support theirs. Also, if after reading this book, you have entirely different opinions about the nature and extent of interrelationships between and among individuals, businesses, and society, fine. (My personal preference is to focus on "organizations" which include but are not limited to companies. Also, I have some different perspectives on "society", believing that much closer attention should be given to elements such as symbol and ritual.) As for "perfect futures", Davis and Meyer select 20. Given your own circumstances, it may make much more sense to formulate and then extrapolate (with "the art of the long view") more or fewer.

I rate this book so highly because it poses so many important questions, and, because the answers provided are both thoughtful and thought-provoking. Do I totally agree with Davis and Meyer? Certainly not, as already indicated, but I am grateful to them for stimulating me to think about the issues they raise. For less than the cost of dinner in a world-class restaurant, you can feed your brain (and your organization) with ideas provided by world-class thinkers. Judge for yourself which ideas have value to you as all of us proceed into the Blur which awaits.

This book picks on a couple of transient epi-phenomena of a crazed stock market and interprets them as new verities. But the market is returning to reality as they speak. The authors' attempt to ride the latest intellectual fad has backfired this time since the ideas in this book were obsolete before the book was published.

This book was required reading for one of my doctoral classes, it raises some interesting thoughts and opinions. It is worth the time to read it regardless of whether you agree with the authors' conclusions. It brings to light many of the changes that should (or have) come along with our new connected world and economy. Their ideas on the individual were especially thought provoking - their section on society was interesting despite the fact that I frequently disagreed with their conclusions.

Again - definitely worth the time to read.

As communications improve, everyone wants to be entertained or helped by the best in the world. This means an incredible shortage of top talent and a glut of all other talent. In such a world, how will the market allocate resources? This book uses existing trends to extrapolate into a free market economy for talent that will be patterned along the lines of stocks and time share units. It all makes sense, once you get past the initial shock of thinking about yourself potentially as being a public version as YOU, Inc.

Future Wealth is the second book in a trilogy that began with Blur, by Stan Davis and Chris Meyer. The book builds a full argument on the most intriguing, but small, theme in Blur concerning the issue of Bowie Bonds by the rock composer and performer David Bowie. Seldom will you find a book with such a valuable insight into the likely future of capitalism.

Unlike most business books which just describe something that has been going on for some time, Future Wealth clearly goes beyond today into tomorrow. For those who are unfamiliar with scenario-based thinking, this book will seem strange. Experience shows that such thinking is extremely valuable for helping each of us prepare for things that may well happen when the exact shape of the future is unknowable.

Although some will see nothing new in this book beyond Blur, that is clearly not the case. Blur ends with the Bowie Bonds example and Future Wealth begins there, but that is not the end of the thinking.

The biggest idea in Future Wealth is that individuals need not have the exposure to volatility risk that makes each of us take a conservative financial course. The solution to volatility for each person is to pool risk with a statistically significant number of others. This is the solution that makes insurance and mutual funds work better. Davis and Meyer have the insight to see that combining all aspects of our future, including our net worth, into such pools can allow us to take greater risk that will permit the potential for achieving much greater rewards. As a result, risk is our friend when we handle it properly. This is a powerful insight that will change the way almost all human beings conduct their lives.

They also see the systems potential of getting the present value of our economic potential available to us when we most need it. Then, we can use the funds to both expand our future income and net worth, while diversifying our risk. That is a fundamental insight that we should each pay attention to.

Instead of being limited to the resources at hand, we can have virtually unlimited potential by investing in our futures using all of the potential resources that might be available to us. A public company is like a government, in that it can issue more stock to create more resources. Now, Davis and Meyer point out the important benefits of extending that perspective to the individual.

Turning around the current company-centered economic culture, they argue that companies should invest in their employees by helping them go public and taking a position alongside of them. By making every employee a shareowner in many firms, companies are already started down this path. This next step will work even better. Imagine how much more incentive you would have to hire and nurture the best, if you could always get benefit from that relationship . . . even after they left the firm.

One of the great strengths of this book is that it suggests a fundamental new paradigm for growth and wealth. There is a set of public policy suggestions that emphasize greater social safety nets that permit each person to take on more risk that can expand wealth for the individual, the company and the society. They point out that the connected economy favors the potential for each of us to so much more.

In the future, thoughtful readers will remember this book as The Wealth of Nations for individuals. Good luck with developing your Future Wealth!

I also encourage you to find ways to diversify your risk in advance of these new market mechanisms being available. In that way, you can make progress faster now. That is an important part of the lesson of Rich Dad, Poor Dad . . . seen from this perspective.

When the market mechanism is in place, the paths to entrepreneurship will be much more available. That will be good for us all!

In their earlier book "Blur" Davis and Meyer had blurred the difference between many things ( the difference between product and service for example ) . In this book the difference between fiction and reality gets blurred !

The common thread that runs across all chapters is - Connectivity, Speed and Intangibles, and it is certainly advisable to read "Blur" before reading this book. I find it very difficult to visualize many events that are forecast in this book. The main effects of IT (Information Technology) in the new economy seem to be the phenomenal increase in the ratio between I (Intangibles) and T (Tangibles) ; the redistribution of wealth wherein the individuals manage their own risks; securitization of talent ; and virtually trade in everything thereby creating new markets and opportunities.

A word of caution. Check your vision both before and after reading this book!

I am not a financial wizard by far, however I did learn alot from listening to these two CD's. I feel anytime you can learn anything to help you in this life - it's worth while. These were definitely worth my time.