Customer Reviews

Future, Inc. How businesses can anticipate and profit from what's next

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As a newcomer to the field of information technology, I was hopeful that this book would provide insights on how to manage change from a technological viewpoint. Although the purpose of the book was not technology alone, the theme was intertwined throughout the book and explored in creative ways. The technology topics were not discussed in depth which left room to explore analysis techniques. These tools will be applicable even when current technologies are obsolete. Therefore, this book will be a reference for years to come.

The book is divided into two sections: Tools and Techniques and Drivers of the Future. In the first section, each chapter discusses one important stage of the futurism process. The second half devotes a chapter each to eight different broad categories of trends. Each chapter contains real world examples that demonstrate companies succeeding or failing at strategically planning for the future. The last page of each chapter contains a handy checklist of the important points from the chapter and a section explaining activities or implications of the topic. This provides a quick reference guide and easy access to information from the chapter.

The basic premise of the book is to introduce futurism and provide the tools necessary to develop scenarios of the future that may not be obvious to the analyst. The step by step process is easy to follow and uses graphics to illustrate key points. In fact, Garland stresses that graphical representations lead to the successful implementation of the futurist techniques. Wagner in "Partners for Progress" supports this when she explains how road maps help leaders focus on ways of conceptualizing the future. Garland uses many real business examples that illustrate his points in dramatic ways. He even manages to show how chocolate bars and bottles of beer are affected by technology trends.

In the second section of the book, Drivers of the Future, the author begins by stating that new capabilities in information technology are leading most changes. Then, he scratches the surface of other topics and devotes a chapter to each: aging, information technology, heath care, biotechnology, energy, nanotechnologies, media and communications, and ecology and sustainability trends. To my surprise, the theme of technology was present in each of the topics. From the notion of smart homes that support the changing needs of the aging population to the nanotechnologies that are changing healthcare, technology is either responsible or reactive to the evolving society. To remain competitive, businesses must stay informed on all of these topics and prepare for the future.

Of these broad topics, the aging trend was particularly interesting to me. Charles Lanigan in "Preparing a Capable Workforce for the Knowledge Economy" underscores the importance of the aging trend as he discusses the effects of the changing demographics. As the shift from physical labor to intellectual labor continues, businesses must face the fact that capturing the knowledge from retiring employees is not an easy task. Businesses must create tools to enable the proliferation of knowledge. In addition, he states that "many problems in our modern world are caused or exacerbated by human beings who fail to think and communicate, relate to others or respond mindfully to changing circumstances". This is one of many reasons why Garland's tools and techniques are valuable for the success of a company.

One other item of note is the chapter dedicated to information technology trends. Although technology plays a major role throughout the book, the ideas presented in this chapter support Nicholas Carr's controversial IT ideas in "IT Doesn't Matter." Garland acknowledges that information technology is becoming more powerful, less expensive, and available to all. Both Carr and Garland treat IT as a commodity that does not provide a strategic advantage from competitors.

After reading this book, I was left with two questions. First, how do companies assign a value to each scenario? The book successfully demonstrates the tools that are required to list possible outcomes, but it is lacking in the valuation department. Secondly, how do companies successfully implement the scenario? Andy Hines, a leading futurist by his own right, provides a complimentary process to Garland's but in six phases. He starts with understanding the present with what he calls "Framing" and "Scanning" steps. Then, he explores the future in the "Forecasting" stage. After his "Visioning" and "Planning" stages he explains the "Acting" stage where he describes how to implement the plan. Garland stops short of this final implementation phase.

In conclusion, anyone involved with strategic planning should definitely have the tools that Garland describes in this book. His step-by-step process engages the organization in seeing the value of looking at a broad range of areas and has brought many companies successfully into the future.

References

Carr, N.G. (2003), "IT Doesn't Matter." Harvard Business Review, (81:5), May 2003.

Hines, A. (2006) "Strategic Foresight." The Futurist, Sept/Oct 2006.

Lanigan, C. (2007), "Preparing a Capable Workforce for the Knowledge Economy." CIO Magazine, March 14, 2007.

Wagner, C. (2006), "Partners for Progress: Creating Global Strategies for Humanity's Future", The Futurist, Nov/Dec 2006.

This book provides an excellent breakdown of the analytical process that futurists use, allowing the common person to incorporate long-term thinking into every-day decisionmaking. Garland effectively uses examples from every-day life to provide some background on what futurism is, and why futurist thinking is important. He then proceeds to break down the process, set by step, to show the reader how he/she can adpat his/her thinking to make better decisions for the long-term.

I have to admit that I was skeptical at first that a guy calling himself a "futurist" could be taken seriously. Fortunately, I read it on a recommendation, and I'm more than willing to admit that I was wrong. What Garland is writing about could just as easily be called something more respectable, like "trend analysis." I've found, however, that futurism is a developed discipline, and I think I'm way too late to get them to change the name of their clubs, magazines, and the titles on their literature. Garland's book establishes that futurism is not a subset of business--it is a holistic way of thinking, which, in a fast past, increasingly integrated world, should permeate professional thinking. This may seem like a truism, but, as Garland points out with example after pitiful example, very smart people have failed to succeed on this point.

If you have a job where you have to make decisions or plan (I am a long-term planner for a large organization), you will find this book useful. I read it with a stack of post it notes, marking the concepts that I later used in the workplace, impressing co-workers. I haven't decided if I will tell them about Garland's book, or let them believe that I'm just a genius. The book has very good strategies for conceptualizing the "system" of factors that will impact an issue in the future, for identifying (to the extent possible) all relevant factors in the "system" that related to the issue that you are looking at, and also tools to help avoid falling into the trap of giving the answer we want, or the answer that fits best with one's own prejudices. He also explores some of the major demographic/technological trends that are likely to impact the world we live in, and which need to be taken into consideration in planning for the future. In my view, this book provides an effective tool for anyone who wants to be a successful innovator rather than a of a victim of circumstance.

As far as the writing, this book is written in a very accessible manner--first writing person with lots of jokes and color. While, in places, I would have rather had more "high falutin" tone, I think that would have done a dis-service to readers. As is, this book could be used for anyone's reading at home. The font was also very readable, which would make it ideal for assigned classroom reading. I was able to race through in one Saturday, and started using some of the ideas in the book at work the following Monday.

Garland's comments on future trends appeared to be only the surface level of much deeper thinking. The level of detail was appropriate for this volume--a "primer" or "textbook" view of futurism. That said, I'd have been interested to get more detail on Garlands thinking on key issues that will impact our future, and he believes they're likely to change the world. I suppose he doesn't want to give away all of his trade secrets...

Fantastic book!

Very interesting and well written. Connects directly "future studies" with "strategic planning". Introduces the concept of System Thinking, analizes trends and go through scenario generation, all ilustrated by good cases.

After hearing the author speak on a panel about the future, I decided to buy his book. And what a fabulous book it is! Displaying in-depth knowledge, and conveying it in an entertaining and clear manner usually don't go together. That is what makes this book a great read.

If you like ideas, thinking about them, exploring them, etc., then you will love this book.

Highly recommended reading for anyone. It contains important ideas. I think about its relevance, particularly in light of the news [daily] about an upcoming Recession. While this may tend to put us in knee-jerk reaction-mode, thinking about what we have to do presently in reaction to the possible conditions of the next 12-18 months; it is actually now more than ever that we need a framework for thinking about what is on the 10-20 year horizon. If you could effectively do that [i.e., build the scenario for 10-20 years out, and alter your current plans accordingly], imagine how far ahead of your competition you would be -- in business and in life.

I was attending a social event and bumped into Eric Garland. His ideas of the future intrigued me enough to buy my own copy of Future Inc. After reading his book, I have come to learn that the study of the future is its own discipline. Studying the future can help organizations "profit from what's next." Truly, the future is something all of us should be thinking about more.

I travel the country speaking and consulting on topics that help organizations build stronger and more profitable relationships. Meeting thousands of individuals and hearing their stories, many folks are singly focused on the short-term gains. This focus makes them miss many important direct and indirect trends and forces. Garland suggests and I agree, that we should use a model to capture the trends and forces. He recommends using the STEEP model (society, technology, economics, ecology, and politics) along with scenarios. Scenarios portray various futures to help decision makers understand the direct and indirect trends and forces that shape their own organizational stories.

Page 27 sums this concept nicely, "When you think about a problem or anything else, no matter how complex, take it apart. If it's a product, find out where its supplies or components came from, who participated in its creation, and where it all began. If you can see all parts of the system, then you have a much better chance of seeing where the next change will come from."

I appreciate the thorough approach to the study of the future along with the practical tools you can use today. I especially enjoyed chapters 5 (Strategic Implications: What the Future Means to You), 6 (Scenario Generation: Drawing a Picture of the Future), and 7 (Communicating the Future--Even to the Skeptical).

Reading this book makes you wonder why futurists didn't foresee the need for it earlier. But then, that's one of the major purposes of Future, Inc.: to de-mystify futures studies, so that people stop thinking of it as a way of predicting the future, with all the negative, crystal-ball charlatanism that evokes. I read futurist magazines and attended futurist conferences during the 90's, but was turned-off by two things: 1) the boring predictability of most of the speakers/writers, and 2) the irrelevance of their methods, most of them seeming to have been devised in tremendous isolation from the real world. Garland's book cuts through all that ingrown navel-gazing and gets straight to what most readers (especially business readers) care about: is there any way I can get a better handle on what might be coming down the pike, as it relates to my work? This should be on every executive's bookshelf (AFTER being read, of course).

The start of this book hits it right on the head- no company wants to be the record industry, one day suing its customers. If they had seen into the future, they (record companies) would have known what trouble they were heading for, and turned that trouble into profit. This book teaches you how to think critically about the future as it relates to your business. It should be required reading in business schools. Great writing and clear tips for success make it stand out from boring business books.

I think knowing about trends and anticipating the future is an invaluable skill for consultants and senior HR people. This is especially true for the latter if they want to be a strategic player. If you truly want to make your "place at the table" being a "business futurist" is one way to do it. I just finished reading Eric Garland's Future Inc.: How Businesses Can Anticipate and Profit from What's Next and I think it is excellent. Garland steps you through the process of viewing the world as a system, recognizing trends, developing scenarios, drawing pictures to make those scenarios easier to communicate and then actually communicating the future to your target audience. One tool that I found to be very helpful, in fact I have already applied it to one consulting situation, is what he called the STEEP model. It is a model that you can use to think about all the potential impacts on your situation, as an example, your current recruiting method. STEEP stands for:

Society

Technology

Economics

Ecology

Politics

Thus, if you were trying to determine what future recruitment for you company might look like you would consider these areas and what their impact might be on recruiting. For example, society might include, Gen Y considerations, talent shortages, demographics, migration patterns, and educational shortages. Technology might include the impact of Internet recruiting and video resumes. Economics might include inflation, cost-of-living, and relocation expense. Ecology might include "green" considerations and your company's reputation. Politics might include federal and state legislative changes that would change discrimination definitions. If you get nothing else out of this book other than the use of this tool it will be well worth the price of the book.

Garland then finishes the book with his take on what he calls the "Drivers of the Future." He discusses: Aging, Information Technology, Health Care (versus what we do today which is 'sick care'), Biotechnology, Energy, Nanotechnology, Media and Communications, and Ecology and Sustainability. All of them are important, but for the HR professional the first three are of particular importance.

The key point of his book is to view the world as a system and to realize that there are multiple impacts on whatever you are working on and to be effective in anticipating the future you must consider this system. That is why the STEEP tool is so effective. This can be put to use today in ALL HR departments and it will have an immediate impact on how you view the strategic aspect of your job and how you are viewed as a contributor to strategy.

Eric Garland's FUTURE INC: HOW BUSINESSES CAN ANTICIPATE AND PROFIT FROM WHAT'S NEXT tells how companies spend millions to turn future predictions and uncertainties into reality, charting the courses such professionals take to become proactive, reveal new business trends, and benefit from future predictions. Here is the key to in-house development of future ideas, offering the tools professionals use to analyze what things will look like years ahead. It's a 'must' for company leaders looking to get ahead.