Customer Reviews

FutureConsumer.Com: The Webolution of Shopping to 2010

5 star:		(7)
4 star:		(0)
3 star:		(1)
2 star:		(0)
1 star:		(0)

 

 

This book is must for anyone who's involved with e-commerce. Very insightful, very exciting to read, especially when you know what you are doing now is exactly where we are headed.

It's funny, I wonder how many people reading the book even heard of Quixtar? And Frank predicts it to be and already is a Top 5 e-commerce company, plus it's profitable. Hmmm...who else can say that? Do any of the other 4 companies he predicts to be in the Top 5 in 2010 allow you to partner with them to get flat out wealthy?

Using this book can help you predict which companies will succeed and which will not. Thereby which ones to invest in now and which ones to dump.

I'm sure some reading this will think it's pie in the sky, but in the end, the pie will be in their face for not taking advantage of the Internet.

Most individuals and companies are making poor use of the Internet's potential because they have limited experience with it and are uncertain about its future development. So when such individuals try to think about what the Internet means to them in 2010, they draw a blank.

As Peter Drucker reminds us, the future can always be anticipated by looking at what has already happened. In the case of the Internet, many companies and individuals are making very thorough and advanced use of this medium. What are the lessons of their experiences? Frank Feather has done a superb job of examining that question. His research methodology included lots of Web content analysis, review of user patterns, access to planned new technologies not yet in use, and panels of experts estimating the future.

As a result, futureconsumer.com is the best set of scenarios I have seen for thinking about the future of the Internet. For the importance and use of such scenarios, I refer you to Arie de Geus's, The Living Company and his experiences at Royal Dutch Shell in this area.

Most people forecasting about the Internet stop around 2004 or 2005. Feather has numbers for that period as well, but also figures for 2010. He also compares his forecasts to other well-known ones, and explains the reasons for why he differs from them.

What you will find is that Feather thinks most product and service categories will develop 20 to 50 percent faster than the standard forecasts. That means that by 2010, there are enormous changes in the mix of how consumers will access products and services.

I was impressed by his logic in those areas where I am familiar with what is being done in new technology and on the Internet by major companies. He certainly reflects the best thinking that I have seen in those areas.

In a few cases, I think he is a little aggressive, but for scenarios, it doesn't matter if the scenario is a little high. In fact, as we point out in The Irresistible Growth Enterprise, Nth Degree testing (extreme scenarios) are often the most valuable because they make thinking easier.

To further help you in your scenario thinking, Feather has developed an estimate of which Web sites will be leaders in their categories and in overall traffic. This allows you to think about who your key competitors are likely to be, a valuable addition for scenario analysis.

Further, he goes on to discuss the strategy implications for start-up Web operators, existing major Web sites, and physical world companies. If you work for a large company, he probably discusses your company's issues in some detail here. That, too, can help you with your scenarios.

I read a lot, and consult regularly for the most advanced companies on the Internet. Despite that background, I learned a lot from this book. It has examples and research that I was unaware of. Also, I realized that by not thinking out to 2010 I had missed areas where our consulting firm should be taking action now. Most books on the Internet entertain me, but don't change my behavior. This one is the exception.

His overall success model for the future of the Internet is a good one. I think it needs a few more factors, but if you build on this one, you will be in the right ball park at least.

Now, I do have a quibble. This book was not as carefully edited as it should have been. For example, the Web is almost always referred to as the 'always-on' Web. After the 100th time, that gets a little tiresome. That point could have been established after the 3rd or 4th time. Also, the numbers in one part of a chapter often appear to contradict the numbers in another part of a chapter. For example, on-line trading appeared to be described as being both 18 and 37 percent of all trading at the end of 1999. I believe the latter is the correct number. Before the next printing, I hope someone goes back through and completes the editing process. I don't think these errors harm the content of the book, but they annoyed me.

Otherwise, the book is a delight to read. Mr. Feather is a fine and imaginative writing, with a flair for getting his ideas across. I particularly liked his examples of stalled thinking among bricks and mortar companies, often exemplified by a quote. He has an excellent set of 50 questions at the end to help you eliminate stalled thinking. These questions are worth buying the book for. Also, he has a wonderful description of what it is like to be engrossed in the Internet -- something he calls flow. I think that is a very useful concept, and one that I plan to share with others.

He also offers a Web site where he will update his work from time to time, so the book will stay current for you.

Have an irresistible time expanding your future success with futureconsumer.com!

Long ago when I was a high school student, one of my teachers explained that "a liquid always assumes the shape of its container." I was reminded of that comment as I began to read Feather's thought-provoking book. He examines what he calls "the Webolution of Shopping to 2010" which is perhaps best indicated by the transition from WWW to MMM (ie WorldWideWeb to MobileMediaMode). Once we understand the capabilities of a given device, we discover all manner of uses for it. That is, we fill the "container" of possibilities with the "liquid" of our ingenuity.

Feather organizes his material as follows: a Foreword, 24 Chapters divided among four Parts (The "Webolution", Who Will Shop Online, What They Will Buy, and e-Marketing Strategy: From Mall to "Mallennium"), an Afterword -- The "6-Ps" of Marketing: Value Web and Flow Experience, a "To Do" List: 50 Random Questions for Monday Morning, Appendix A -- Web-Based Research Methodology, Appendix B -- Forecasting Online Sales, and his suggestions for Further Reading. I include this information because those who read one of my reviews for Amazon.com do not have direct access to the table of contents of the book discussed. In this instance, I especially want to indicate how comprehensive and thorough Feather is. I also want to add that this book is exceptionally well-written. Unlike so many polemics of futurism, collapsing under the weight of their bloated prose and statistics, FutureConsumer.Com is enjoyable to read. Credit Feather with having a delightful sense of humor.

In a previous work (The Future Consumer, 1993), Feather forecast how the traditional "4 Ps" of a marketing mix would be transformed (by what was then called the information highway") into a new "4 Ps" of marketing:

* Product becomes Mass-Customized Product

* Place becomes AnyTime + AnyPlace

* Price becomes Total Value Price

* Promotion becomes Precise (1:1) Positioning

To these four Feather now adds two other Ps. Personalized Service involves "high tech/high touch service to anticipate each customer's `Web Lifestyle' needs and aspirations via personalized, customized lifestyle solutions. Profound Experience involves "a Web site design that optimizes the `flow experience' to ensure a bookmark on customer's favorite list."

Feather is a courageous fellow to suggest in such detail how the "Webolution" will dramatically reshape the retailing industry over the next decade. At least some readers will disagree with him about certain details concerning what will or will not occur, what will or will not be available, by the year 2010. However, all readers will enjoy this book and most will learn a great deal while reading it. Who will derive the greatest benefit from it? I suggest two separate but related groups: Individual consumers who now wonder what may await them during the next decade, and, those who will be selling goods and services to them.

For either group, I think FutureConsumer.Com is a "must read." Those who share my high regard for it are urged to check out B. Joseph Pine & James H. Gilmore's The Experience Economy, Bernd H. Schmitt's Experiential Marketing, Peter Schwartz's The Art of the Long View, and Michael J. Wolf's The Entertainment Economy.

Frank Feather has done it again. His analytical skills and ability to integrate prophecies and projections makes him a "wizard" of some stature.

One must be impressed with his understanding of the future trends based on real numbers and moving them into a model that can be easily interpreted and applied.

As a community development consultantI have moved into the "webolution"age with some trepidation coming from an environment that was based on seeing faces and mobilizing their energy.

This book futureconsumer.com clearly identifies the "new way"

Frank Feather has influenced me in past with his excellent book in 1989;G-Forces: The 35 Global Forces Restructuring Our Future and this new proclamation allows me to substantiate the new message that all communities need to embrace if they are to be enterprising

The following quotes from his book are now part of my "mantra" as I work within communities.

"the main principle is "reversal"-you don't go to work, work comes to you"

"the Internet is a network of opportunity where those who conduct commerce in novel ways will reap huge rewards"

"consumers are voting, not with their feet but with their mouse clicks and digital wallets, for the Web economy"

"once a PC enters the household, life at home is never the same"

"the term "online newspaper is as unimaginative as horseless carriage"

"by 2010,telemedicine will be a routine part of daily life and health maintenance"

Frank Feather is fearless and he moves beyond the normal and jumps headlong in his book into the future horizon with comments -"online learning won't just replace schools. but will render them irrelevant."

The book is difficult to put down with its easy flowing statistics and futurisms.

One aspect of the book, futureconsumer.com that intrigued me was Mr. Feather's projections on which web sites will win the "webolution" in the final analysis.

If you are interested in what will happen to your family, home, business and community in the next few years, you need to read this book. You may not believe in all its projections but it will make you think about the future.

Books on future economics are interesting reading and require an open mind given that the author is providing assistance to the reader to think in another dimension. Author Feather does an excellent job of providing an understandable framework for his futuristic economy.

Most books on future economics are seemingly quite strange and require a big stretch in reader imagination (e.g. "The Third Wave"). Other books on the Internet predict the Internet will be everything to everybody, an obvious hyperbole.

Feather walks the line between a George Jetson-like future and overblown exaggeration of the Internet. From this reader's perspective, Feather's observations and/or predictions make a great deal of sense and seem to fit a resonable extrapolation of today's events in the crucible of the free market and the unfolding of time.

No, you won't find Feather predicting that all products and services will sell extremely well over the Internet and you won't find a death sentence for bricks and mortar retailing. What you will find, however, is a thoughtful analysis of broad product lines and a different expected outcome of these product lines based on current and predicted consumer behavior. Sometimes the analysis is in favor of an Internet solution (with say 50% of the sales from the Internet) and sometimes the Internet is expected to be less prone to be the "ultimate" selling machine (with say 10% of the sales from the Internet). Don't think the book is just a big broad stroke either; Feather breaks down each of the product lines into sub-groups so that you are not only clear as to his thought process but also find yourself searching the sub-groups for your own industry or market to determine Feather's prognostication.

If you have a business today, or you are employed by a business today, a small investment in this title could stimulate thinking that can assist in positioning you and your business for future success.

It's a very stimulating ride and one that should contribute to creative thought on the impact of the Internet in the reader's private and business life.

I have my own internet business and I use this book to promote the future of the internet and business. It is a great window into the future! Great E-Biz book!

This is the consultant who coined the phrase "thinking Globally, acting locally -- fabulous book -- essential for every bookshelf. Perfect to use for business presentations, great for reference material. Terrific way to find out what's next. From web to mobile and web economics and lifestyles and how to avoid being cyber-spaced-out. I especially like the chapter on buyer acquisition costs-- most people won't talk about that. Lots of great info here and it seems to be fairly up to date even in the older editions. His newer one must be fab. Smart agents are just getting started and this author envisioned them when he first wrote the book-- artificial intelligence-- next gen Web-- lots of great stuff in here. He divides the book into several parts 1-- the Weboluton 2) Who will shop online 3) what will they buy 4) and emarketing strategy....

Despite all the glowing reviews for this book, it is fairly average.

The author writes about how the internet will become an essential par of our lifestyles. Some of his notions are very interesting and could very well come true. But others are caught up in the hype surrounding the internet.

One example is that furniture.com will be one of the 5 main retailers on the internet for home furnishings. He must have only read their press releases because this company has since filed for bankruptcy.

This is an ok book that could have a must read if the author had been a bit more objective. I suppose only time will tell ...