FutureThink: How to Think Clearly in a Time of Change [Hardcover]

Edie Weiner (Author), Arnold Brown (Author)

Book Description

Publication Date: September 25, 2005

In The Untrapped Mind, two leading futurists reveal the breakthrough thinking techniques they've developed to liberate the mind from its old assumptions, and sensitize it to the earliest signals of change. Edie Weiner and Arnold Brown show how to overcome both personal and institutional biases, to see the big picture. Learn how to recognize when trends aren't linear, and when tomorrow won't be 'just like today'.  The authors show how a football game can help clarify priorities in attracting and retaining customers; how the history of railroads can put the Internet into perspective; how the 'Law of LargeNumbers' helps one recognize the drivers behind such powerful forces as deviancy and terrorism; and much more. 

Editorial Reviews

From the Back Cover

In The Untrapped Mind, two leading futurists reveal the breakthrough thinking techniques they've developed to liberate the mind from its old assumptions, and sensitize it to the earliest signals of change. Edie Weiner and Arnold Brown show how to overcome both personal and institutional biases, to see the big picture. Learn how to recognize when trends aren't linear, and when tomorrow won't be 'just like today'.  The authors show how a football game can help clarify priorities in attracting and retaining customers; how the history of railroads can put the Internet into perspective; how the 'Law of LargeNumbers' helps one recognize the drivers behind such powerful forces as deviancy and terrorism; and much more. 

About the Author

Edie Weiner is President president of Weiner Edrich Brown, Inc., a leading futurist consultancy based in New York City. She has thirty30 years experience in issues analysis and strategic planning, and was the youngest outside woman elected to the Board of a major financial institution. A guest lecturer at Wharton and Harvard, her work has appeared in Harvard Business Review and The Wall Street Journal.

 

Arnold Brown,Chairman chairman of Weiner Edrich Brown, Inc., pioneered strategic scanning for management. His clients have included GM, 3M, the IRS, Merck, and the U.S. Congress. He is a director of the World Future Society.

 

The authors' previous books include Supermanaging and Insider's Guide to the Future.

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Product Details

• Hardcover: 304 pages
• Publisher: FT Press (September 25, 2005)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 013185674X
• ISBN-13: 978-0131856745
• Product Dimensions: 9.2 x 6 x 1.3 inches
• Shipping Weight: 1.1 pounds
• Average Customer Review: 4.8 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (10 customer reviews)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #650,387 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

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Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

7 of 9 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars How to overcome "the ideology of comfort and the tyranny of custom", October 20, 2005

By 

Robert Morris (Dallas, Texas) - See all my reviews
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This review is from: FutureThink: How to Think Clearly in a Time of Change (Hardcover)

According to Weiner and Brown, their book "defines the ABCs of clearly seeing patterns, weighing choices, understanding trends, getting the future right, making good and innovative decisions about the future, and, indeed, influencing what that future will be." Frankly, my own crystal ball imploded many years ago but, that said, I am grateful to Weiner and Brown for providing some truly unique and thought-provoking perspectives on how to "think [more] clearly in a time of change." Weiner and Brown respond to a number of critically important questions:

1. How can (and do) "personal traps" such as individual biases prevent us from recognizing and then understanding change?

2. How can (and do) "organizational traps" also do so?

3. How can we avoid (or extricate ourselves from) these "traps" in order to see what Weiner and Brown characterize as "The Big Picture"?

4. How can we use metaphors to help us to "see" more...and to see it more clearly?

Rather than "give away the plot" by attempting to summarize Weiner and Brown's responses to these questions, it would be more appropriate for me to provide some brief excerpts from their narrative. In Chapter 2, they suggest: "The important thing to remember is that both trend and countertrend present opportunities for profit. At the fork in the road, businesspeople should not merely ask which is the best road to take. We should also ask how our assets and constituencies can be used to our advantage on either or both roads." Why? "Not realizing that every trend creates a countertrend will leave you confused and surprised by unfolding events and changes ahead. Understanding the existence of countertrends will untrap your mind and allow it to process change much more accurately."

For example, understanding disintermediation which involves bypassing traditional channels for the delivery of goods and services, offering lots more options, choices, and sources of information.

Then in Chapter 7, Weiner and Brown example the mental trap of entropy which can be especially difficult because its requires thought and action which most people prefer to avoid. What to do? "Give up many `sacred cows' and start over...Pick your fights more wisely...Lose the fear of experimenting, particularly with less significant things...Be more aware, active, and informed politically...Give up relying solely on the best practices of others in running your business...[and finally] Stop trying to fit every opportunity or challenge into an old framework."

Weiner and Brown conclude Chapter 14 with a recap, noting that "football is a useful metaphor for how sellers must approach the modern marketplace. There's first down, which is some combination or price, quality, convenience, and assortment. Second down is personalization or customization. Third down is company reputation. Fourth down is the punt (giving up and going on defense), the field goal (a business-to-business strategy), or the touchdown (the relationship)."

Granted, these brief excerpts are taken out of context but they at least offer a sense of how innovatively Weiner and Brown think when focusing their attention on situations and circumstances which seem so familiar that most people give them little (if any) rigorous thought.

To me, Chapter 15 (all by itself) is worth far more than the cost of this book. Weiner and Brown suggest how to manage effectively by "harnessing evolution." Darwin's Theory of Evolution has two major components: differential reproduction and sexual selection. Weiner and Brown observe that a "newer, disputed addition to evolution theory is [in italics] punctuated equilibrium [end italics], which is when a sudden event, such as a natural catastrophe (a crisis) or a mutation (a new development) creates an abrupt new path toward development." That is, it disrupts what is generally referred to as the process of natural selection. To decision-makers in all organizations (regardless of size or nature), Weiner and Brown recommend what they consider to be "the next big management tool." Specifically, the idea of time-pacing which involves "deliberate recombination, procreation, and mutation [in all areas of operation within an organization] at predetermined intervals." Only then can flexibility be the central characteristic of an organization's culture. And only in such a culture can those who share it function effectively at a time "when evolution moves so quickly that it becomes revolution."

In Leading Change, Jim O'Toole examines various barriers to change, suggesting that the worst of them is what he calls "the ideology of comfort and the tyranny of custom." Presumably Weiner and Brown agree. In FutureThink, they suggest that, in fact, there are no effective barriers to the process of natural selection and that the velocity of this process continues to accelerate rapidly and irrevocably.

One final point. If I understand Weiner and Brown correctly (and I may not), what we do now to avoid or extricate ourselves from the personal and organization "traps" they have identified may not be wholly sufficient in years, perhaps even in months ahead. But at least understanding the "16 proven mental paths to insight and foresight" which they recommend in this volume will help us to respond to change in the future, whatever its nature and extent may prove to be.

3 of 4 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars A must read for marketers and strategists..., October 20, 2005

By 

Vance W. Lavelle (New York) - See all my reviews
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This review is from: FutureThink: How to Think Clearly in a Time of Change (Hardcover)

Thought provoking and instructional, Weiner and Brown's FutureThink shares the thinking tools to keep an organization's offerings relevant in a contstantly transforming world. I found it particularly helpful in innovating consumer experiences with services.

Vance LaVelle, Former Chief Marketing Officer, PNC Financial Services Group

7 of 10 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Fearless Approach to the Future, October 5, 2005

By 

Warren Alexander - See all my reviews
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This review is from: FutureThink: How to Think Clearly in a Time of Change (Hardcover)

Economists and historians predict the past, while futurists, well, they predict the future. There are pitfalls for both. For those who want to prepare for, understand, or capitalize on the future, Future Think is an extremely is a valuable tool or weapon. Weiner and Brown are fearless as to how to identify, measure, and apply current happenstances to possible future consequences, trends, and events. This is critical for those who work in institutions where they must convince traditonal or freightened decision makers that their new vision is well founded.

Future Think offers numerous methods of how to assess the future including Trend/Countertrend. This is when two contradictory effects emanate from the same cause. They suggest instead of denying either side of the contradiction, try to understand and apply the lessons from both.

They also cite specifics trends regarding ageing, technology, and social behavior. These can be employed by just about any profit and non-for-profit entity. Future Think is not an amorphous compendium of tenuous suppositions and tedious equations but a valuable and conversational guide for the mining and refining of information