Futurecast: How Superpowers, Populations, and Globalization Will Change the Way You Live and Work [Hardcover]

Robert J. Shapiro (Author)

Book Description

ISBN-10: 0312352425 | ISBN-13: 978-0312352424 | Publication Date: April 1, 2008 | Edition: First Edition

What will life be like in America, Europe, Japan or China in the year 2020? 

As everyone’s lives across the world are become increasingly interconnected by globalization and new technologies quicken the pace of everything, the answer to that question depends on the fate and paths of the world’s major nations.   In Futurecast, Robert Shapiro, former U.S. Under Secretary of Commerce and Chairman/Co-founder of Sonecon, looks into the future to tell us what our world will over the next dozen years.  Though that time span seems brief, Shapiro foresees monumental changes caused by three historic new forces—globalization, the aging of societies, and the rise of America as a sole superpower with no near peer— will determine the paths of nations and the lives of countless millions. What jobs will there be for you and your children?  What will happen to your health care? How safe will you be at home or abroad?  Answers to these questions will depend, even more than today, on where you live in the world:

• Even as China expands its military and its economy, America will be the world’s sole superpower for at least the next generation, and continue to lead efforts to preserve global security and stability. 

• The U.S. and China will be the world’s two indispensable economies, dominating the course of globalization. 

• Globalization will continue to shift most heavy manufacturing and millions of high-end service jobs from advanced countries like the US, to China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Romania, Turkey and other developing nations.

• Europe’s major nations and Japan will face the prospect of genuine economic decline and critical problems in their retirement pension systems, moving further towards the periphery of global economic and geopolitical power.

• Every major country—the U.S., Europe, Japan, China—will face critical problems with their health care systems, and the entire world will face a crisis over energy and climate change.  

If one adds the wildcard of possible, catastrophic terrorist attacks to this mix, the period between now and 2020 will be as challenging as any in modern times. Taking these deep global developments into account when planning for the future isa necessity.  Robert Shapiro’s clear-eyed Futurecast is the knowledge portfolio you need to prepare for the years to come.

Editorial Reviews

From Booklist

This is one of those books that seems either prescient, or obvious, depending on how you read it. The author, a former undersecretary of commerce, now a private consultant to businesses and politicos (including Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama), sets his sights on the near horizon and paints us a picture of our world a dozen years from now. Basing his insights on solid historical data as well as contemporary trends, Shapiro predicts, among other things, that we’ll soon be buying our cars from Mexico and Turkey, that Europe will become less politically and economically relevant, and that China will emerge as a superpower rivaling the U.S. in its influence on the rest of the world. Readers who closely follow economics and politics might find many of the author’s ideas obvious (the world soon to be threatened by climate change and energy crises? Say it ain’t so!). Still, he effectively synthesizes current trends into a thought-provoking, well documented, persuasively argued treatise. --David Pitt

Review

FUTURECAST was chosen by the US Chamber of Commerce as one of the 10 "Books that Drive the Debate" for 2008

"Rob Shapiro's prescient and insightful book probes the confluence of challenges that society will face in the coming years. He argues that our world has become increasingly interdependent, and we must foster global cooperation to achieve a sustainable existence with equal opportunity for all. Futurecast is a vital resource for anyone seeking to understand the world our children will inherit."-- President Bill Clinton

“a storm warning at a time when food shortages, higher energy prices and a credit crunch are forcing our heads out of the sand: if they turn to Futurecast 2020 , they will find an argument that gives us a measure of what we should expect from our political leaders - and from ourselves - if we are to continue our civilisation on the high plateau we have managed to reach.”--The Financial Times

"Entertaining and educational. Shapiro deftly pulls together facts and figures to back up his statements. An illuminating, satisfying read."--Kirkus

"Alarming but challenging. A dense yet well-written overview of teh heavy factors that will remake the world. A thorough and gifted analysis."--Management Today

“A new world economy is emerging before our very eyes. Robert Shapiro not only understands the breadth and depth of these enormous changes but also is able to communicate them in a way that is clear, powerful and readily understandable. This is a brilliantly written book and a compelling analysis -- that provides extremely valuable insights into the enormous and historic transitions now underway that will profoundly affect the world's major economies for decades to come.”--Robert Hormats, Vice Chairman of Goldman Sachs International

“In America today, we are sorely in need of the big ideas that will elevate our electoral and legislative processes above the level of fundraising and high stakes lobbying.  In Futurecast, Robert Shapiro creates the fertile ground from which these big ideas will spring by accurately predicting how all our lives will be changed, in the near future, by aging populations, globalization and the rise and fall of the superpowers.  This book is a must-read as we head into this first half of the twenty-first century."--Al From, CEO of the Democratic Leadership Council

“Robert Shapiro understands the world and all of its complexity from the rise and fall of nations to the problem of aging populations.  No one is better equipped to tell us where we're headed in the not-so-distant future.”-- Rolf Ekeus, High Commissioner on National Minorities (UN), former Executive Chairman of the United Nations Special Commssion on Iraq and former Swedish Amassador to the United States

“In 1992 Rob Shapiro's analysis of the big changes in globalization became the intellectual framework for the Clinton campaign and Presidency.  In this new book Rob returns to the subject and has written a book that is likely to do in 2008 what he did once before - offer the economic framework for the President and the nation.   This book is a must read for any one trying to make sense of how the global economy is changing in the early part of the 21st century.”--Simon Rosenberg, chairman, New Democrat Network

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Product Details

• Hardcover: 368 pages
• Publisher: St. Martin's Press; First Edition edition (April 1, 2008)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0312352425
• ISBN-13: 978-0312352424
• Product Dimensions: 9.3 x 6.2 x 1.5 inches
• Shipping Weight: 1.2 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
• Average Customer Review: 4.3 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (6 customer reviews)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #1,071,640 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

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Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

11 of 13 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Globalization, demographics and superpowers, April 2, 2008

By 

Emil B "Emil" (Sydney, Australia) - See all my reviews
(VINE VOICE)   

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This review is from: Futurecast: How Superpowers, Populations, and Globalization Will Change the Way You Live and Work (Hardcover)

Robert Shapiro, former Clinton Administration Under Secretary of Commerce presents his vision of the world in the near future. In his view, there are three important factors that will have an impact on the shape of the new world: globalization, demographics and the superpowers. None of this is surprising and most of the people agree with this view. His presentation is provocative though, and the simple review of facts that occurred in the recent past and their extension into the near future is challenging the mindset that most of us have. The world is fast evolving and we have to adapt.

It is difficult to grasp the massive dislocation brought to us by globalisation when you have countries like China and India entering the world stage changing completely the job market everywhere. In his view America will remain a superpower, but the rules are different. Robert focuses on US, China, Japan and Europe, with occasional touch on Ireland, UK, France, Germany, Italy and South Corea. The book has a lot of factual information and it contains, based on that information, predictions on future trends that are likely to occur until 2020. Suprisingly, there is not much about India, Canada and Australia (the last two countries have massive natural resources that have a key strategic importance in the evolution of global balance of power).

The main factors that Robert predicts will have a significant influence in the evolution of world order are demographic, economic and political. The demographic factors are staggering. For instance China will have by 2020 over 170 million people over 60. Or consider the fact that in Europe and Japan the elderly will represent over 50% of the working-age population. These developments will have impact on productivity, economic growth, social system, tax and welfare in general.

The story of China is interesting. The accelerated development is impressive, but there are huge risks lurking in the background. The eventuation of any of these risks has implications for the rest of the world. Robert Shapiro explains very well the connection between China and US as competitors fighting for leadership and partners sharing common interests.

Of course there are unanswered questions, but who can pretend or demand that they should or could be answered? This is one of those books that make people debate forever, and that is good. The book is a very interesting read.

5 of 5 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars The future, October 16, 2008

By 

Tom Carr "Tom Carr" (Atlanta, Ga. USA) - See all my reviews
(REAL NAME)   

This review is from: Futurecast: How Superpowers, Populations, and Globalization Will Change the Way You Live and Work (Hardcover)

I have been attempting to predict the future since about 1965 when I first started reading science fiction. I have almost always been wrong. I have been reading expert's attempts to predict the future since about the same time. They have almost always been wrong. In spite of that it is great fun to predict the future, and even though there are so many variables that the predictions are almost always wrong, the attempt leads to greater understanding of the present.

This book is well written and a pleasure to read. It discusses the main trends that will shape the future, and then goes on to discuss the unknowns, such as major technological changes or catastrophic terrorist events that could make major changes the current trends.

I don't doubt that if you read this book in 10 years it would seem dated and you would smile at many of the incorrect predictions, but reading it today has given me a fine experience of thinking about what is happening in the world.

3 of 3 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Must-read book of the year, bar none., August 1, 2008

By 

Paul Allaer (Cincinnati) - See all my reviews
(VINE VOICE)    (TOP 500 REVIEWER)    (REAL NAME)   

This review is from: Futurecast: How Superpowers, Populations, and Globalization Will Change the Way You Live and Work (Hardcover)

Robert Shapiro was Under-Secretary of Commerce in the Clinton administration from 1998 to 2001, and now leads a consulting firm for US and foreign companies on business issues in general. Now he brings us this book.

"Futurecast: How Superpowers, Populations, and Globalization Will Change The Way You Live and Work" (358 pages) brings the "big picture' of what we can realistically expect in the next 15 years so so. Shapiro focuses on several general themes (geopolitics, globalization of the economy, and the global demographic shift) and the incredible shifts that they will INEVITABLY will bring about. Praise yourself lucky that you are is the US, as Shapiro's outlook for Europe and Japan is bleak at best. Observes Shapiro: "The geopolitical marginalization of Europe seems all but certain. It may be hard to imagine today when much of Europe disdains America's power and its president, but these developments could strengthen the Atlantic alliance." (He goes on to explain in great detail how that would happen.) Shapiro points out there are two wild cards in all scenarios: terrorism and Islamic fundamentalism (which are not the same thing, of course). The effects of the global demographic shifts are devastating, yet certain to happen (Russia is losing about 1 million, yes you read that correctly) people every year) and certain to cause huge political consequences, particularly in Europe and Japan. And on and on...

Be forewarned: this is not a book you'll read in a couple of hours (or even days). This is dense and serious writing. It took me a good two weeks to read the book from start to finish, but it was so worth it. This book for me is as essential as Thomas Friedman's revolutionary "The World Is Flat" book 3 years ago. This book should be required reading for all college students, and frankly our politicians. Are you reading this, Wahsington? Absolutely essential reading.