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Futurecast: How Superpowers, Populations, and Globalization Will Change the Way You Live and Work

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Robert Shapiro, former Clinton Administration Under Secretary of Commerce presents his vision of the world in the near future. In his view, there are three important factors that will have an impact on the shape of the new world: globalization, demographics and the superpowers. None of this is surprising and most of the people agree with this view. His presentation is provocative though, and the simple review of facts that occurred in the recent past and their extension into the near future is challenging the mindset that most of us have. The world is fast evolving and we have to adapt.

It is difficult to grasp the massive dislocation brought to us by globalisation when you have countries like China and India entering the world stage changing completely the job market everywhere. In his view America will remain a superpower, but the rules are different. Robert focuses on US, China, Japan and Europe, with occasional touch on Ireland, UK, France, Germany, Italy and South Corea. The book has a lot of factual information and it contains, based on that information, predictions on future trends that are likely to occur until 2020. Suprisingly, there is not much about India, Canada and Australia (the last two countries have massive natural resources that have a key strategic importance in the evolution of global balance of power).

The main factors that Robert predicts will have a significant influence in the evolution of world order are demographic, economic and political. The demographic factors are staggering. For instance China will have by 2020 over 170 million people over 60. Or consider the fact that in Europe and Japan the elderly will represent over 50% of the working-age population. These developments will have impact on productivity, economic growth, social system, tax and welfare in general.

The story of China is interesting. The accelerated development is impressive, but there are huge risks lurking in the background. The eventuation of any of these risks has implications for the rest of the world. Robert Shapiro explains very well the connection between China and US as competitors fighting for leadership and partners sharing common interests.

Of course there are unanswered questions, but who can pretend or demand that they should or could be answered? This is one of those books that make people debate forever, and that is good. The book is a very interesting read.

I have been attempting to predict the future since about 1965 when I first started reading science fiction. I have almost always been wrong. I have been reading expert's attempts to predict the future since about the same time. They have almost always been wrong. In spite of that it is great fun to predict the future, and even though there are so many variables that the predictions are almost always wrong, the attempt leads to greater understanding of the present.

This book is well written and a pleasure to read. It discusses the main trends that will shape the future, and then goes on to discuss the unknowns, such as major technological changes or catastrophic terrorist events that could make major changes the current trends.

I don't doubt that if you read this book in 10 years it would seem dated and you would smile at many of the incorrect predictions, but reading it today has given me a fine experience of thinking about what is happening in the world.

Robert Shapiro was Under-Secretary of Commerce in the Clinton administration from 1998 to 2001, and now leads a consulting firm for US and foreign companies on business issues in general. Now he brings us this book.

"Futurecast: How Superpowers, Populations, and Globalization Will Change The Way You Live and Work" (358 pages) brings the "big picture' of what we can realistically expect in the next 15 years so so. Shapiro focuses on several general themes (geopolitics, globalization of the economy, and the global demographic shift) and the incredible shifts that they will INEVITABLY will bring about. Praise yourself lucky that you are is the US, as Shapiro's outlook for Europe and Japan is bleak at best. Observes Shapiro: "The geopolitical marginalization of Europe seems all but certain. It may be hard to imagine today when much of Europe disdains America's power and its president, but these developments could strengthen the Atlantic alliance." (He goes on to explain in great detail how that would happen.) Shapiro points out there are two wild cards in all scenarios: terrorism and Islamic fundamentalism (which are not the same thing, of course). The effects of the global demographic shifts are devastating, yet certain to happen (Russia is losing about 1 million, yes you read that correctly) people every year) and certain to cause huge political consequences, particularly in Europe and Japan. And on and on...

Be forewarned: this is not a book you'll read in a couple of hours (or even days). This is dense and serious writing. It took me a good two weeks to read the book from start to finish, but it was so worth it. This book for me is as essential as Thomas Friedman's revolutionary "The World Is Flat" book 3 years ago. This book should be required reading for all college students, and frankly our politicians. Are you reading this, Wahsington? Absolutely essential reading.

Overall, the author does a good job of describing the
megatrends he sees in our future. For instance,
globalization will shift labor intensive jobs to
areas of the world where labor costs are cheaper.
The USA and China will emerge as superpowers and
dominate globalization. As the number of working people
go down- the quality of life goes down and the various
social programs will be under funding strains as in
Europe.

The author sees overall challenges in health care,
globalization and climate change. The traditional
economies will experience slower growth with higher
taxes, more elderly and a shrinking labor force.
Globalization also encourages costly new medical
procedures due to technological improvements.
The government must find ways to control costs in
this area by merging partnerships with industry.

The USA will build and maintain global information
networks. This is our area of strength. The USA
labor force will grow decently over the next few
decades due to the current stock of immigration.
The new immigrants are needed to replace the labor
pool of retiring baby boomers. There will be no
baby boom in Sub Sahara Africa and Russia. These
countries may suffer for the lack of a labor pool.
In summary, Americans have produced more children
than Europeans or the Japanese. The price of the
baby bust is the end of strong growth in Europe
and Japan according to the author.

China must build its infrastructure and manage the
coastal information technologies with the needs of
inland China. Outsourcing does cause the loss of
some jobs; however, there is a counterbalance to
increments in productivity. I happen to believe that
outsourcing is not a panacea or cure-all for a
number of reasons. i.e. enforcement of corporate
standards is more difficult; Random Acts of G-d
can obliterate operations overnight etc.

The author poses the question concerning oil demand
and prices. Ultimately, oil prices will rise and
stabilize at various equilibrium levels. The new
technological advances may serve to keep oil prices
in check , if there is a serious effort to seek
new oil sources and build cars that are energy efficient.

The book provides a serious perspective on the
challenge we face in the future. Policymakers in
Washington, DC and elsewhere should take note !

This book is a great read for anybody who needs to hear solid reasons as to why the United States is still the most competitive and innovative economy in the world and will continue to be so in the near future. If you peruse around the web, most of the commentaries and videos on Youtube are doom and gloom visions for the prospects of America. But the fact is that people have been betting against America for decades and they always lose. Sure the country has its problems, but Americans don't shy away from competition, America is a relatively young country and not set in archaic ways like places such as Europe, and people from around the world are banging on its doors to come in. But there are winners and losers in globalization. US workers at large manufacturing firms (especially cars) and even software designers are going to continue to lose jobs. The winners are going to be the people who get a solid education, learn a second language, and develop skills that aren't easily duplicated by a low-wage earner in India or China. Eventually, production jobs will become automated and low-wage labor will become irrelevant. The world leader right now in robotics is Japan, but the US military has been investing heavily in robotics for years. Expect another technological boom originating in the US in the field of robotics in 10 to 15 years. This country lives and dies with innovation and the infrastructure to produce it is alive and well.

Talk about things moving fast... I was hoping that since this book was just released, that the recent financial issues(housing implosion, credit crisis, food/gas price inflation) etc. would be part of the "Futurecast".
I have read to the end of the fourth chapter, where details of how foreign holders of us $S MAY GET DISGUSTED AND PULL THE RUG OUT FROM UNDER US OVERCONSUMING AMERICANS and cause a run on the dollar and thereby a(guess what?) recession. Well....? didnt Bernanke just attest to the fact wee are in a recession now? and it's not because of the reasons given in this book so far.. Peter Schiff detailed the dollar run scenario in his "Crash Proof" book over a year ago, so I knew about that. I was hoping to see how, with the events of the last 6+ months Americans would fare in the coming years, vis a vis China and all the other forces at work on the Amercan and/or global economy. I will reaD ON, BUT I am very disappointed that recent events arent inclusive.