The Futures Of Women: Scenarios For The Twenty-first Century [Hardcover]

Pamela Mccorduck (Author), Nancy Ramsey (Author)

Book Description

Publication Date: April 22, 1996

The ”official future” says that women are moving toward equality with men. If not in our lifetime, we say, then in our children’s.Think again.If the rate of change during the last twenty years holds, it would be 2270 before women and men were equally likely to be top managers of major corporations.In The Futures of Women, Pamela McCorduck and Nancy Ramsey explore four dramatically different alternatives for the coming years. Using a powerful new way of understanding trends—scenario planning—the authors paint these vivid landscapes: ”Backlash,” ”A Golden Age of Equality,” ”Two Steps Forward, Two Steps Back,” and Separate—and Doing Fine, Thanks.” Each scenario has its own inner logic, firmly grounded in today’s events, today’s demographic and social trends, and in tomorrow’s technological promises, but each one derives from a different combination of the political, social, and economic conditions that could prevail over the next twenty years. The authors’ report from the recent UN Fourth World Conference on Women in Beijing further supports their scenarios.The book began as a project for the Global Business Network, a unique consulting firm whose scenario planning methods have helped governments, policymakers, and business leaders create effective strategies for the future. Decisions take on new meaning when we can ”live” for awhile in the world that would result from a course of action we’re now considering.Imagine a world where as many women as men are elected to the U.S. Congress. Or, a world where fear for personal safety causes women to don the Muslim chador on Western streets. Or, imagine a national economic policy influenced by giant pension funds whose managers and clients are mainly women. Or, a world where exclusive resorts cater to the sexual needs of busy women executives.Are any of these worlds in our future? Any one of them could be. Only by understanding how we could move from here to there—how the choices we make today could actually play out—can we hope to influence which future comes to pass.The official future won’t happen, but one of these four scenarios could. The compelling stories of women living in these futures give women today the reasons and the inspiration to shape their own.

Editorial Reviews

Amazon.com Review

Imagining the future is the first step toward realizing or avoiding it, say Pamela McCorduck and Nancy Ramsey. The duo use some science and a lot of art to project what women's lives might be like two decades hence. They paint four brave new worlds by mixing different driving forces--group vs. individual rights; sluggish vs. strong economic growth--with present-day events and trends. One scenario is a golden age of equality and opportunity. Another postulates nightmarish backlash. In a future Germany, for example, it is said that "The Berlin Wall fell on women" because state-supported child care, abortion rights, and employment were swept away after unification and economic backpedaling pushed women to the bottom of the job market. The third vision has international women's organizations working too hard to retain earlier gains to move forward. In the last hypothetical situation, women advance their lot through alliances with other women, separate from men and governments. McCorduck and Ramsey freely admit that the complex chaos of societies and wild cards such as biological terrorism make predictions simplistic, but as we strain toward the future, their rich, imaginative book illuminates the present.

From Publishers Weekly

McCorduck (Nuclear Weapon Decision-Making) and Ramsey (The Fifth Generation) are members of the Global Business Network, a consulting firm for the future, for which they prepared this study. In examining cultural trends and attending international women's conferences, they attempt to estimate what the status of women will be in 20 years. Their results, presented here in a scholarly tone, use scenario planning that offers four visions of the future: a worldwide backlash against women, harmonious equality of the sexes, a society where the gains and losses maintain the status quo and a separate but equal world of equality of the sexes. The authors assert that the "official future" posited by male writers such as Peter Drucker-gradual equality of men and women-won't take place, because there is a "vast and unprecedented transformation" "inside the heads of women that is making them demand faster change." Since McCorduck and Ramsey predict that parts of each scenario are likely to occur, their thesis is aimed chiefly at stimulating discussion for positive societal change.
Copyright 1996 Reed Business Information, Inc.

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Product Details

• Hardcover: 304 pages
• Publisher: Basic Books (April 22, 1996)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0201489783
• ISBN-13: 978-0201489781
• Product Dimensions: 9.3 x 6 x 1.1 inches
• Shipping Weight: 1 pounds
• Average Customer Review: 4.7 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (7 customer reviews)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #4,432,882 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

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Most Helpful Customer Reviews

3 of 3 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars A Strong Voice, January 13, 2004

By 

Pamela Stern, Doctoral Student, Pepperdine Un... (Portland, Oregon) - See all my reviews

This review is from: The Futures of Women: Scenarios for the 21st Century (Paperback)

Sometimes a book comes along at just the right time. Perhaps this is one of those for the women across several generations who may have the chance to work together towards a common vision. The Futures of Women speaks with a strong voice about four future scenarios created by the authors based on current ideas, trends and facts. The authors tell us,
"Scenarios permit us to see how the choices each of us makes in the present are linked to outcomes 20 years in the future. Imagining these four possible futures today gives us a means of grasping the consequences of choices and gives us hope of influencing the course of events."

Each of the four futures has been extrapolated to provide a vision into "what might happen if" scenarios entitled Backlash; The Golden Age of Equality; Two Steps Forward, Two Steps Back; and Separate and Doing Fine, Thanks! As we read the scenarios we bring personal view points to whether this or that envisioned future will be predominant. What matters to the scenario process, however, is that we expand our view of what is possible as we read them and allow the process of thought to promote individual understanding.

Innovation requires that we expand our understanding of what is possible and to "see" problems, opportunities and solutions before others see them. Perhaps scenarios are most effective as development tools in the innovation process rather than the divining rod for innovative ideas. The simple act of gathering the material to use for imagining variations of what the future may hold drives one of its most important benefits. In understanding where we are and what could happen through sifting evidence of our culture and time, a foreshadowing of who we might become is unearthed within several possible futures. The storytelling in the scenario weaving process then provides the context for relationships between ideas that may lead us to imagining futures whose paths are trajectories that we can either access or build towards.

3 of 3 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars An intelligent look at the future, June 6, 1999

By A Customer

This review is from: The Futures Of Women: Scenarios For The Twenty-first Century (Hardcover)

Tired of the banalities of "futurists" who are either dead wrong or tell you what you already knew? McCorduck and Ramsey offer an *intelligent* exploration of several possible futures for women. They have done their analysis carefully, and have woven together the facts and some believable creativity into four scenarios for women.

The scenarios are richly detailed, and many aspects of each are hauntingly familiar-- as if some of these futures have already happened. Set aside your preconceived views about what you believe the future holds, and embark on this journey. It will be an eye-opening adventure.

I have written a longer review of this excellent book [online].

2 of 2 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars The Women in the First Twenty Years of the New Millennium, May 7, 2001

By 

mehri hagar (Culver City, CA United States) - See all my reviews

This review is from: The Futures of Women: Scenarios for the 21st Century (Paperback)

The Futures of Women The Authors' Perspectives

PAMELA MCCORDUCK is the author of Machines Who Think and The Fifth Generation.

NANCY RAMSEY is a former legislative director to Senator John Kerry and co-author of Nuclear Weapons Decision-Making.

The Futures of Women began as a project for the clients of Global Business Network (GBN), Emeryville, California. The central business of GBN is the planning and creation of scenarios for corporate, government, and nongovernment long-range planners. The principals of GBN are encapsulated in the Shell Oil team that in 1968 predicted both the sharp rise in oil prices and in the early 1970's the fall of the Soviet Union. GBN claims not to have predicted either event. Rather, "they examined the predetermined elements and identified what they viewed as the driving forces." (p. xi) In 1993, from October through December, GBN gathered in two meetings to examine facts and trends, destroy complacency, and predicate thoughts about the roles of women in the next twenty years-a generation into the future. The two conferences, on-line and face-to-face, generated many novel ideas, one of which is the fact that "most women are years ahead of most men in thinking about changing roles. Most men are just now beginning to [admit] to women, 'You really mean it.' Many men are confused; some are resentful. They consider themselves decent and good and are pained to be perceived as obstacles. They also realize that the privileges their sex enjoyed for centuries are threatened with extinction." (p. xiii) The on-line conference produced so many emotional stymies that as a model of the real world, it is clear that unfulfilled emotional business will play a role in the real future. "The on-line conference was evidence that men especially are anguished about pending changes....McCorduck had never seen so much raw emotion on the computer screen. The face-to-face meeting, on the other hand, provided exhilarating evidence that women and men working as respectful partners can envisage a world that meets, even exceeds, our rosiest expectations." (pp. xiv-xv)

Introduction

Main Idea: The Reality of the Present--Women Are Not Achieving Equality. "Statistics collected by the United Nations since 1975 show that in most economic respects, things are getting worse, not better for most women in the world. (p. 320) In 1970, the top managers of major American Corporations were 99 % male. Twenty years later, only 95% of top mangers were men. At this rate, it will be the year 2270 before women and men are equally likely to be top managers of major corporations. In Congress, were 6 % of elected representatives in the mid-1990s, a tripling of the 2% they were in 1950. At this rate, Congress will achieve equality between men and women by the year 2500. The percentage of high-level women may remain frozen forever at under 10% in business and in politics....Women generally avoid thinking about these numbers and the difficulties they represent because nobody has the stomach for confrontation and battle, or for large-scale organizing efforts, the traditional means of achieving what women want and of preserving what they have. (pp. 9-10) Should this trend continue into the future, we might think of it as a more subtle form of Backlash." (p. 320) Main Idea: The Wish List of Problems for Desired Equality. In an upbeat response, women from all over the world identified a list of problems common to them: they desire autonomy over their own bodies, they desire health and education, they desire equality in the workplace, they desire freedom from violence, and they desire a share of political and economic power. "All over the world, women will recognize an internal change in themselves, and they are preparing to seize...their own futures.... Women's transformed view of themselves, combined with other global seismic shifts-the restructuring economy and the rapid spread of information technology-means that this is a very new future we all face."(p. 5) "If the genuinely powerful, nearly all of them men, view the world as a zero-sum game, convinced that the gains of others must be their loss, then even those modest but real advances that women have made toward equality in the last few decades of the twentieth century seem to be a startling threat to the powerful. (p. 10) Main Idea--Future Implications: With No Common Standard of Law, Women Will "Go Backward" in Equality. Moreover, the Western notion of individual rights, protected by national law and international action, is being ferociously resisted as an international norm. With no common standard of law, and with nations powerless to enforce that standard if it existed, women go backward." (p. 17) The book offers four possible views of the future world in the form of four scenarios: (1) Backlash; (2) A Golden Age of Equality; (3) Two Steps Forward, Two Steps Back; and (4) Separate and Doing Fine, Thanks! Each scenario is written as a blend of description, novel, and biography-graphic, ripping with emotional truths of the abuse of women and of the fundamental resistance to the changing roles of women, and intellectually connected with both history and future. One must read carefully to discern the thin line, where real events of the late twentieth century end and the fiction of a possible future begins. Contemporary abuses against women throughout the world, in every culture, leap out of the pages to enlighten the reader of the collaborative, collusive containment of women in the culturally and worldly traditional roles-both metaphoric and real-of mother, of housewife, of "harlot," and of "slave" in restricted positions of responsibility and/or of salary in the western corporate world and in the primeval third world countries sans technology. The common thread that is embedded in and generates each scenario is the state of the global economy and the political and philosophical factions that govern a country or rule a company. "In one of our scenarios, individual rights generally prevail and the global economy grows robustly. Result: 'A Golden Age of Equality.' In another scenario, the rights of groups-religious, political, tribal, or national-tend to prevail over individual rights, and the economy grows robustly: 'Separate and Doing Fine, Thanks!' When individual rights prevail over group rights, but the global economy is depressed, the scenario is 'Two Steps Forward, Two Steps back.' In another scenario, group rights prevail over individual rights, but the global economy is depressed, resulting in 'Backlash.'" (p. 21) In each scenario the same predetermined elements play a role-demographics and technology for two-but the plot line differs in each scenario. "Electronic money may encourage easy buying in one scenario, but it could camouflage fraud and crime in another. Money itself disappears in some places, to be replaced by barter...The voices of imaginary women who have lived through them help to give realism and texture. Thus [the four] scenarios are a textual form of virtual reality.... (p. 21) Main Idea--Future Implications: One of the main purposes of a scenario is to illuminate the present, not necessarily to predict the future." (p. 311)

Scenario 1: Backlash. "In this scenario the priorities, mores, and values of religious, tribal, political, or national groups dominate over individual rights in a depressed, no-growth, regionally oriented economy. A black economy, far larger than a local black market, is itself fueled by international narcotics trade.... For women things have seldom been so grim: If they work for pay, they are the last hired and first fired; they get the worst jobs and differential wages. They are expendable." (p. 28) In this futuristic world, Christian and Islamic fundamentalist leaders lay the troubles of a suffering people-crime, poverty, political corruption, disease, failing schools-at the feet of women. "It was women's unnatural ambitions for themselves that had caused them to neglect their duty to their husbands and children and upset the old, peaceful, natural, and God-ordained order." (p. 29) By 2005, women were bound to their guardian husbands and fathers. "Women who had once been fearful only of going out after dark now needed to fear the daylight too. Thus many consented to having homing devices placed under their skin, which certainly permitted them to be found in emergencies, but which also offered them up as victims of spying." (pp. 31-32) By 2015, sex was perceived as a weapon. "Men accused women of using sex to exert power in business, to get extra business, to get promotions, whatever they wanted. Conversely, many women argued for asexuality-avoiding anything but electronic communications with men, refusing to talk or think about sex. [These women] believed that if they denied their sexuality they would be safe." (p. 36) In the 1990s men were determined "to put women back into their traditional place. If beating women is traditional, then beating wo