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Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds - American Intelligence Agency Report on the Megatrends, Gamechangers, and Black Swans of the Future, the Rise of China, Alternative World Scenarios [Kindle Edition]

U.S. Government , National Intelligence Council (NIC)
3.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (4 customer reviews)

Kindle Price: $8.99

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Book Description

This important report from the American National Intelligence Council (NIC) was released in December 2012. Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds is the fifth installment in the National Intelligence Council's series aimed at providing a framework for thinking about the future.

This report is intended to stimulate thinking about the rapid and vast geopolitical changes characterizing the world today and possible global trajectories during the next 15-20 years. As with the NIC's previous Global Trends reports, we do not seek to predict the future—which would be an impossible feat—but instead provide a framework for thinking about possible futures and their implications.

Potential world scenarios examined in the report: Stalled Engines - In the most plausible worst-case scenario, the risks of interstate conflict increase. The US draws inward and globalization stalls.

Fusion - In the most plausible best-case outcome, China and the US collaborate on a range of issues, leading to broader global cooperation.

Gini-Out-of-the-Bottle - Inequalities explode as some countries become big winners and others fail. Inequalities within countries increase social tensions. Without completely disengaging, the US is no longer the "global policeman."

Nonstate World - Driven by new technologies, nonstate actors take the lead in confronting global challenges.
MEGATRENDS * INDIVIDUAL EMPOWERMENT * POVERTY REDUCTION * AN EXPANDING GLOBAL MIDDLE CLASS * EDUCATION AND THE GENDER GAP * ROLE OF COMMUNICATIONS TECHNOLOGIES * IMPROVING HEALTH * A MORE CONFLICTED IDEOLOGICAL LANDSCAPE * DIFFUSION OF POWER * THE RISE AND FALL OF COUNTRIES: NOT THE SAME OLD STORY * THE LIMITS OF HARD POWER IN THE WORLD OF 2030 * DEMOGRAPHIC PATTERNS * WIDESPREAD AGING * SHRINKING NUMBER OF YOUTHFUL COUNTRIES * A NEW AGE OF MIGRATION * THE WORLD AS URBAN * GROWING FOOD, WATER, AND ENERGY NEXUS * FOOD, WATER, AND CLIMATE * A BRIGHTER ENERGY OUTLOOK * GAME-CHANGERS * THE CRISIS-PRONE GLOBAL ECONOMY * THE PLIGHT OF THE WEST * CRUNCH TIME TOO FOR THE EMERGING POWERS * A MULTIPOLAR GLOBAL ECONOMY: INHERENTLY MORE FRAGILE? * THE GOVERNANCE GAP * GOVERNANCE STARTS AT HOME: RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES * INCREASED FOCUS ON EQUALITY AND OPENNESS * NEW GOVERNMENTAL FORMS * A NEW REGIONAL ORDER? * GLOBAL MULTILATERAL COOPERATION * THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED CONFLICT * INTRASTATE CONFLICT: CONTINUED DECLINE * INTERSTATE CONFLICT: CHANCES RISING * WIDER SCOPE OF REGIONAL INSTABILITY * THE MIDDLE EAST: AT A TIPPING POINT * SOUTH ASIA: SHOCKS ON THE HORIZON * EAST ASIA: MULTIPLE STRATEGIC FUTURES * EUROPE: TRANSFORMING ITSELF * SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA: TURNING A CORNER BY 2030? * LATIN AMERICA: MORE PROSPEROUS BUT INHERENTLY FRAGILE * THE IMPACT OF NEW TECHNOLOGIES * INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES * AUTOMATION AND MANUFACTURING TECHNOLOGIES * RESOURCE TECHNOLOGIES * HEALTH TECHNOLOGIES * THE ROLE OF THE UNITED STATES * STEADY US ROLE * MULTIPLE POTENTIAL SCENARIOS FOR THE UNITED STATES' GLOBAL ROLE * ALTERNATIVE WORLDS * STALLED ENGINES * FUSION * GINI-OUT-OF-THE-BOTTLE * NONSTATE WORLD


Product Details

  • File Size: 1609 KB
  • Print Length: 248 pages
  • Simultaneous Device Usage: Unlimited
  • Publisher: Progressive Management (December 11, 2012)
  • Sold by: Amazon Digital Services, Inc.
  • Language: English
  • ASIN: B00AMQP66K
  • Text-to-Speech: Enabled
  • X-Ray:
  • Word Wise: Not Enabled
  • Lending: Enabled
  • Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #570,207 Paid in Kindle Store (See Top 100 Paid in Kindle Store)
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Customer Reviews

3.0 out of 5 stars
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1 of 1 people found the following review helpful
By KLP
There is an olde saying in business: Do whatever you can to keep your boss out of the bookstore, danger lurks within.

I have much the same reaction to this latest Megatrends book that I did after reading the first one years ago that was authored by Naisbitt: It's kind of an interesting read, but for the most part it is an ego trip by a bunch of non-producers sitting in conference rooms and going to academic conferences. I'll bet they wore out those white boards!

I was all prepared to give the book three stars until I hit the last 10% of the book that finally dealt with the "Alternative Worlds" that were promised in the title. In fact, I would recommend to a prospective reader that you just read the last 10% or so of the book, and then go back and get more details if needed.
In all fairness this is one book that really does not lend itself to reading on a Kindle. The formatting is just not appropriate to a Kindle. This is not the fault of the authors, of course, but needs to be taken into consideration if you are planning on reading the book on a Kindle - or any other notebook.
I would have to say that I really did not learn much or acquire new information when reading this book.
In fact, I thought there would have been more treatment of two key impacting phenomena that I believe will have more effect on the world's future than several of the ones cited. First, is the declining population that will occur in most, if not all, of the world over the next 40 years, but will begin to manifest itself in the next 15 years. I know the authors paid a little attention to this, but it was not called out to the degree it warrants. Second, religious fanaticism was not emphasized enough as a deal breaker.
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3.0 out of 5 stars I fall asleep every time I read it. February 15, 2014
Verified Purchase
This is straight forward facts and not a good read unless your into that. I was expecting something different. The ideas are good and logical. Seemed like more of a research book than a book to have conversation with.
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0 of 1 people found the following review helpful
Certainly worth reading, along with other and generally better reports linked below, but a huge disappointment. There is nothing here actually useful to a national or corporate leader, and generally nothing new. To take one small example upfront, the so-called "disruptive technologies" are pedestrian in the extreme. My disruptive technologies are Open Source Everything (OSE) starting with OpenBTS (Base Transceiver Station) -- essentially a free cell phone for every person on the planet from birth -- unlimited clean water from the ocean, and free energy. My most significant concern, apart from the fact that this report persists with all of the flaws I pointed out a year ago, is the continued lack of integrity -- ethics -- a deep commitment to telling the truth about the FACT that government corruption is half the problem, the FACT that half of every US tax dollar is demonstrably spent on fraud, waste, or abuse. Until the National Intelligence Council is capable of telling the truth about our own worst enemy -- us -- it will be nothing more than an over-paid over-hyped largely useless coffee klatch.

Thoughts in passing as I go through this final report:

01 Still oblivious to rest of the world routing around the USA, e.g. CELAC (Community of Latin American States), the Asian Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), Haiti joining the African Union, the 57-nation alternative global financial network adopting the Yuan and the Chinese alternative to SWIFT, and so on.

02 Still state-centric, I like the individual empowerment, but the entire report is written from a state-centric point of view and individual empowerment is a virtual footnote.
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2 of 6 people found the following review helpful
2.0 out of 5 stars No alternatives allowed - same old apologetics December 15, 2012
By BroBeer
This "Alternative Worlds" is another attempt to dish out regurgitated Western-based apologetics and get some naive and eager reader to fork over $. A "sexy" title; a few cliches; and the product is ready. The same stale assertions we heard 20 year ago - seriously - the same as 20 years ago. For example, in the sphere of Russia, most of the writers - who have no command of the Russian language - do not actually study Russian's strategic contexts, its relations with China, nor are able to view NATO-USA from the perspective of Moscow and Beijing. The same approach is for the rest of the regions and countries. Instead the unfortunate buyer-reader is forced into adopting the same stances, "perspectives", and spins (a more appropriate word for the alleged analyses) of the writers - current and former U.S. officials, reliable analysts, and loyal academics that actually DON'T bother with alternative perspectives, arguments, and evaluations, in spite of the title.
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