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Global Warming: Understanding the Forecast
 
 
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Global Warming: Understanding the Forecast [Paperback]

David Archer (Author)
4.4 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (10 customer reviews)

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Book Description

December 11, 2006 1405140399 978-1405140393 1
Global Warming: Understanding the Forecast is a comprehensive introduction to all aspects of global warming. Written in an accessible style, this important book examines the processes of climate change and climate stability, from the distant past to the distant future.

Examining the greenhouse effect, the carbon cycle, and what the future may hold for global climate, this text draws on a wide range of disciplines, and summarizes not only scientific evidence, but also economic and policy issues, related to global warming. A companion web site at (http://understandingtheforecast.org) provides access to interactive computer models of the physics and chemistry behind the global warming forecast, which can be used to support suggested student projects included at the end of each chapter. Solutions and artwork from the book are available to instructors at www.blackwellpublishing.com/archer.

Global Warming: Understanding the Forecast provides an essential introduction to this vital issue for both students and general readers, with or without a science background.


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Editorial Reviews

Review

"This book is highly valuable for its description of the physics and chemistry involved in climate change." (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, September 2008)

"A useful addition to any science library in this country." (International Journal of Meteorology)

Review

Choice Outstanding Academic Title for 2007

"Rigorous but rewarding, David Archer's book takes us through the science of global warming so that we can more effectively assess where the world may be heading."
–Andrew S. Goudie, University of Oxford


"David Archer's book is an accessible, entertaining, but detailed account of how scientists are trying to predict future climate change. It is an excellent book and should be the first port of call for anyone wanting to delve deeper into exactly what goes into those global warming forecasts."
Mark Maslin, University College London, author of Global Warming: A Very Short Introduction, OUP (2004)

"David Archer has provided a masterful and lucid explanation of a complex environmental problem. This is all you need to understand the issues."
Professor Ray Bradley, University of Massachusetts

"This is a wonderful book. Between the covers of a surprisingly slim paperback, David Archer has distilled nearly everything a concerned undergraduate student could wish to know about the workings of the climate system...overall, this book perfectly hits its target audience." –Keith Alverson, Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO, Environmental Conservation, August 2007

"...a tour de force of elegant explanation and didactic brilliance...I cannot recommend this book too highly; it is a well-written, evocative exposition of one of the most important issues of our time."
Howard Falcon-Lang, University of Bristol, Geology Today, August 2007


Product Details

  • Paperback: 288 pages
  • Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell; 1 edition (December 11, 2006)
  • Language: English
  • ISBN-10: 1405140399
  • ISBN-13: 978-1405140393
  • Product Dimensions: 6.7 x 0.3 x 9.7 inches
  • Shipping Weight: 1.1 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
  • Average Customer Review: 4.4 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (10 customer reviews)
  • Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #101,613 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

More About the Author

David Archer is a computational ocean chemist, and has been a Professor at the Department of The Geophysical Sciences at the University of Chicago since 1993. He has published research on the carbon cycle of the ocean and the sea floor. He has worked on the history of atmospheric CO2 concentration, the fate of fossil fuel CO2 over geologic time scales in the future, and the impact of CO2 on future ice age cycles, ocean methane hydrate decomposition, and coral reefs.


 

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10 of 10 people found the following review helpful:
4.0 out of 5 stars Basic mechanisms demystified, May 22, 2007
This review is from: Global Warming: Understanding the Forecast (Paperback)
There are some annoying typographical errors in this book, otherwise I would give
it five stars --- visit the book's website for a list of errata.

Plenty of books tell you about global warming, but this book really does
dymystify the nuts and bolts of how climate scientists know what they
say they know. The book says it is based on a course for non-scientists and
it shows --- the explanations are clearly honed from experience of explaining
scientific concepts to non-scientists. It is always difficult for scientists
in any field to convey the depth of knowledge which has accumulated over
a long period of time to people coming from other disciplines, but this book
does a pretty good job.
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13 of 14 people found the following review helpful:
4.0 out of 5 stars Needs some repair., December 17, 2008
Amazon Verified Purchase(What's this?)
This review is from: Global Warming: Understanding the Forecast (Paperback)
You will need to visit understandingtheforecast.org right away, to download the errata. There are 32 errors listed in the errata, as of 17 December 2008. Four figures need to be replaced, though one is an update to reflect the 2007 IPCC report. Unfortunately, the replacement figures are not the same size as those in the book. You cannot merely paste them over; you will need to tape them as a flap, so that you can still read the caption. You will likely find more typos in the book than those listed in the errata. Depending on how valuable your time is, you may effectively double the price of the book.

In addition to the typos, there are some serious errors in the book. The author is a geochemist. The opening chapter on the greenhouse effect, "The layer model", is incorrect for anything but epsilon=1 (epsilon being the emissivity). A term for radiation from the surface is missing entirely from the last equation on page 25. That term would have a factor of (1-epsilon). Fortunately, the solutions listed in Table 3.1 are for epsilon=1, but that is not stated explicitly in the text. Furthermore, there is confusion about the use of the same symbol, epsilon, for both the emissivity of the atmosphere and the surface. You can repair Chapter 3 (or ignore it) by referring to the Wikipedia for "Idealized greenhouse model".

A minor error appears on 157, in regards to the storm surge associated with a hurricane. We read "These are caused by the low atmospheric pressure inside a hurricane lifting up the sea surface". An elementary hydrostatic calculation reveals the a 100 millibar pressure deficit would lift the ocean surface by merely one meter. Storm surges associated with hurricanes are cause by the wind. See the Wikipedia for "Storm Surge".

On page 89: "If we were to precipitate the CO2 into a snowfall of dry ice ... 7cm of snow on the ground." The correct answer is 4 mm. In Figure 9.2: the label should be Gton C/TW yr.

Some of the presentation of the greenhouse effect is outstanding. Chapter 4, and particularly the figures of the spectra at the top of the atmosphere, give a wonderful graphic presentation of radiative forcing and its logarithmic dependence on carbon dioxide concentration. The equilibrium warming that would result from the radiative forcing is again shown with recourse to a spectra. These spectra for the warmed atmosphere provide a excellent starting point for a discussion of the feedbacks (assuming the discussants understand the spectra), which make the forecast uncertain.

The book really shines in the presentation of the chemistry, the carbon cycle and energy policy.

With a little repair by the reader, the book is turned into a five star book.
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19 of 23 people found the following review helpful:
5.0 out of 5 stars The next best thing to enrolling at U. of Chicago, February 24, 2007
By 
This review is from: Global Warming: Understanding the Forecast (Paperback)
I wish to commend this wonderful book written by my colleague, David Archer. The class upon which this book is based is a runaway success, and each year it seems they need to find a bigger lecture hall. When you have read the books like "The Weather Makers," and "Field Notes from a Catastrophe," and are ready for something more quantitative but still fairly gentle on the math, this is the one for you. I think it's the best source around for people who want to get a true scientific understanding of the physics and chemistry of climate change.
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Inside This Book (learn more)
Key Phrases - Statistically Improbable Phrases (SIPs): (learn more)
skin altitude, anthropogenic climate forcings, outgoing energy flux, water vapor feedback, band saturation, moist adiabat, global warming forecast, geopotential surface, blackbody spectra, ice albedo feedback, carbon cycle model, terrestrial biosphere, overturning circulation
Key Phrases - Capitalized Phrases (CAPs): (learn more)
North Atlantic, United States, Year Fig, Kyoto Protocol, Little Ice Age, Southern Ocean, Scientific Assessment, West Antarctic, Cambridge University Press, Gulf Stream, Medieval Warm, American Southwest, Projects Answer, Thermometers Models, Maunder Minimum, German Advisory Council, Pacific Ocean
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