Great Boom Ahead: YOUR COMPREHENSIVE GUIDE TO PERSONAL AND BUSINESS PROFIT IN THE NEW ERA OF PROSPERITY [Paperback]

Harry S. Dent (Author)

Book Description

Release date: January 1, 1994

Predicting the decline of Japan and the re-emergence of the United States as the most powerful economy on the planet, the Harvard economist offers readers practical advice on taking advantage of the situation.

Editorial Reviews

From Publishers Weekly

Business consultant Dent contends that economic trends are highly predictable and forecasts an unprecedented boom in the late '90s.
Copyright 1993 Reed Business Information, Inc.

Product Details

• Paperback: 288 pages
• Publisher: Hyperion; a edition (January 1, 1994)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 1562827588
• ISBN-13: 978-1562827588
• Product Dimensions: 5.5 x 0.9 x 8.3 inches
• Shipping Weight: 12 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)
• Average Customer Review: 4.1 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (14 customer reviews)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #738,151 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

More About the Author

Harry S. Dent, Jr. mission as CEO and founder of economic research and analysis company HS Dent is 'Helping People Understand Economic Change'. As a former strategic consultant at Bain & Company, Dent's analysis states that demographic trends are the greatest drivers of our economy, along with radical new technologies, working together to follow a four-stage life cycle of innovation, growth, shakeout, and maturity. Since 1992 he has authored two consecutive best sellers The Roaring 2000s and The Roaring 2000s Investor (Simon and Schuster). In his latest book The Great Depression Ahead(Free Press), Harry Dent offers portfolio allocation strategies during an economic crisis, as well as the bad news that the worst of the housing downturn will occur between 2010 and 2013. Harry Dent also publishes the HS Dent Monthly Economic Forecast newsletter.

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

33 of 33 people found the following review helpful

5.0 out of 5 stars Great Theory...Mediocre Forecast April 14, 1998

By Bob G.

Format:Hardcover

If you've been invested in stocks the last 15 years, most likely you are very satisfied with your results. If I said that the recent past was just a warmup for the next 10 years, you'd probably say I was out of my mind. When you look at the facts it appears that returns in the future could very well top what we've experienced over the past few years. A confluence of factors is about to change our society for the better; far better than most anticipate. In his 1993 book, The Great Boom Ahead, author Harry S. Dent, Jr. makes a very convincing case for a renaissance in the U.S. economy in the years ahead. I was a little skeptical when I picked up this book, but when I started reading it, it was obvious that Mr. Dent had done his homework. What's nice about reading a book like this, written several years in the past, is that a theory can be exposed for what it is; gold or hogwash.
When you read this book and look at what has happened to the U.S. and world economies you can see that Mr. Dent has been very close to the mark. Granted, some of his specific predictions were more than a little off, but his big picture is correct. For example, he forecasted a major recession unfolding in 1993-94, along with a weak stock market dropping the Dow down
to between 1700 and 2350. The Dow never got below 3000 after he published the book. However, the market was weak in '94, characterized by sector corrections. He did say that the market would reach new highs by the third quarter 1996, which was a great call, although he didn't specify a number.

The most compelling theory Mr. Dent espouses is called the spending wave. Basically, Mr. Dent demonstrates with demographic statistics that peoples spending peaks from ages 45-49. After age 50, spending drops off dramatically. Mr....
Dent also demonstrates that there is a strong correlation between the number
of people in their mid-40's with the performance of the stock market. The
larger the number of mid-fortyish people, the stronger the market.

We've been bombarded by articles about the baby boom generation; the massive number of babies born in the late '40s through the early '60s. The baby boomers, of which
I am one, are now between the ages of 37-52. They are divided in three major waves. The first and smallest wave has recently passed their peak spending years. The second wave of baby boomers is now at the mid-point
of their peak spending years. The third, and largest wave by far, will be entering the peak spending years around the year 2000. If the statistics hold true, spending is going to dramatically increase in the next 10 years,
accelerating economic growth.

Another major benefit we should experience over the next 10 years is subdued
inflation. Mr. Dent argues that the reason for our economic troubles in the mid-'70s to early '80s were due to the assimilation of the vast number of young baby boomers into the labor force. When young people enter the work

force, their productivity leaves something to be desired. If you have enough young people entering the economy at the same time, productivity is going to suffer. This, in turn, creates problems with inflation. Now that the baby boomers have been working and gaining experience for a number of years, their
productivity has improved to the point where inflation is not the problem it once was.

Now to the payoff from all this good news. What do you get when you mix a strong economy with low inflation? A booming stock market! The first two waves of baby boomers are in their peak spending years now. The largest wave
has yet to hit it's highest spending years. Mr. Dent wrote in his book that he expected the Dow to reach 8500 between the years 2006 and 2010. This prediction, when made in 1993 sounded outlandish. Now it is considered ridiculously low. If the correlation between the number of births and the level of the stock market holds true, the Dow should be close to 20,000. Unfortunately, Mr. Dent believes that a great depression will ensue after 2010, when the baby boomers start retiring and become a drag on the economy. He deserves our ear.END Read more ›

21 of 24 people found the following review helpful

5.0 out of 5 stars A must read book for all to easily understand our economy January 18, 1999

By A Customer

Format:Paperback

I recently received this book as a gift. If I had read this book when it was first published, I would be financially and intellectually wealthy. After reading it, I am at least the latter. Everyone should read this book! I am on this web site to purchase the Roaring 2000's. If it is half as good as The Great Boom Ahead, it is well worth it. Bravo Mr. Dent!

12 of 13 people found the following review helpful

5.0 out of 5 stars Real estate predictions in this book are right on the money January 11, 1999

By J. Owen

Format:Paperback|Amazon Verified Purchase

I am a real estate developer of "exurb" properties just North of Dallas Texas and was introduced to Harry Dent's books just recently by an investor in our projects. After reading this book it is almost as if I read first then developed a business around Mr. Dent's real estate predictions. In fact it was just the opposite. I highly recommend this book. I know from first hand experience that when he states 20%of Americans are leaving the cities looking for homes in the exurbs, small towns within a convenient drive to the cities, that it is happening today. I have ordered several copies of this book and have given it out to my bankers, attornies, investors and customers. It is exciting to be part of the real world as predicted by Mr. Harry S. Dent, Jr.

6 of 6 people found the following review helpful

5.0 out of 5 stars Right on! October 6, 1998

By A Customer

Format:Paperback

I read the hardback edition of this book soon after it was published. I considered it an interesting hypothesis at the time, but never expected it to be as accurate as it has proven to be. Not only have we had the incredible boom Mr Dent predicted, but now we see ample evidence of global recession orginating out of asia.

5 of 5 people found the following review helpful

4.0 out of 5 stars Fascinating hypothesis. Read the first 30 pages! April 26, 1998

By [e-mail]

Format:Paperback

In his book, Mr Dent pretty accurately foretold the current economic boom we are in currently. His central hypothesis is extremely believable, and easy to understand. He also forecasts a coming major depression that follows this boom. I hope he updates this book! Timing is everything. Caveat: there is a lot of the vertical pronoun used throughout this book. I still recommend it for any investor.

9 of 11 people found the following review helpful

4.0 out of 5 stars Exceptional book June 18, 2000

By Christopher M. Adams

Format:Paperback|Amazon Verified Purchase

This is a very valuable book for any investor. Despite most economists' attempts to complicate matters, Dent gives the reader an invaluable insight into how profoundly simple economic prediction can be. Fundamentally, he shows how it all boils down to demographics. I'd challenge any economist to prove him wrong.

4 of 4 people found the following review helpful

5.0 out of 5 stars A simple picture of why our economy is booming. February 12, 1997

By A Customer

Format:Paperback

Harry Dent uses a simple and overlooked correlation between the age & size of the population and its relation to the value of the Standard & Poors index. The graphs in his book show a remarkable relationship between these two indices. The book, written in 1993 when the Dow Industrials stood at 2800, predicted a solid boom in the US stock market. And indeed it has happened, our current Dow in February of 1997 at 6800. A must read for the investor who wants to know why the economy is growing so prolifically, inflation is now deflation, and unemployment is so low in the USA

4 of 4 people found the following review helpful

5.0 out of 5 stars Highly Recommended! October 3, 2001

By Rolf Dobelli HALL OF FAMETOP 1000 REVIEWER

Format:Paperback

Harry S. Dent, Jr.'s book is remarkable both for the overall accuracy of its predictions and for the simplistic model upon which those predictions depend. Written in 1993, it claims a niche within the general family of "trend" books written by the likes of Alvin Toffler and John Naisbitt. The work anticipated our current era of super bullish markets, which it predicts will continue through 2007. The crystal ball drops a few items, given that a few years have passed since publication. Nonetheless, it offers a clear macroeconomic forecast and investment tool. If you sense the Fed just doesn't get the New Economy, this is the book for you. We [...] recommend this book to those seeking to understand the United States' era of record-breaking economic gains (and Japan's current hard times).