The Great Boom Ahead: Your Comprehensive Guide to Personal and Business Profit in the New Era Prosperity [Hardcover]

Harry S. Dent (Author)

Book Description

Publication Date: January 1993

Predicting the decline of Japan and the re-emergence of the United States as the most powerful economy on the planet, the Harvard economist offers readers practical advice on taking advantage of the situation. 65,000 first printing.

Editorial Reviews

From Publishers Weekly

Business consultant Dent here forecasts "a long unprecedented boom without inflation" to coincide in the late 1990s with the "baby-boom" generation's years of maximum lifetime spending. Economic trends are absolutely predictable, the author claims, as he interrelates productivity, politics and demography with interest rates, inflation, deficits and unemployment to show how a post-WW II "automobile economy" will yield presently to a global, U.S.-led, "customized" economy based on minicomputers and software under personalized entrepreneurial management. Analyzing industrial cycles from 1900 into the near future, Dent postulates four product-development stages: innovation (with only high-ticket buyers), a cost-reduction-growth boom, a competitive shake-out period and a "maturity boom" at popular prices. Identifying items entering this process (winter-sports duds yes, VCRs no) is the basis for business or investment success, according to Dent, whose scenario seems to assume stable conditions with no irrational financial panics, oil crises, world epidemics, Cold War revivals or aborted population trends. Fortune Book Club alternate.
Copyright 1992 Reed Business Information, Inc.

Product Details

• Hardcover: 273 pages
• Publisher: Hyperion Books; 1st edition (January 1993)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 1562829432
• ISBN-13: 978-1562829438
• Product Dimensions: 8.2 x 5.8 x 1.3 inches
• Shipping Weight: 1.1 pounds
• Average Customer Review: 4.1 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (14 customer reviews)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #1,134,520 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

More About the Author

Harry S. Dent, Jr. mission as CEO and founder of economic research and analysis company HS Dent is 'Helping People Understand Economic Change'. As a former strategic consultant at Bain & Company, Dent's analysis states that demographic trends are the greatest drivers of our economy, along with radical new technologies, working together to follow a four-stage life cycle of innovation, growth, shakeout, and maturity. Since 1992 he has authored two consecutive best sellers The Roaring 2000s and The Roaring 2000s Investor (Simon and Schuster). In his latest book The Great Depression Ahead(Free Press), Harry Dent offers portfolio allocation strategies during an economic crisis, as well as the bad news that the worst of the housing downturn will occur between 2010 and 2013. Harry Dent also publishes the HS Dent Monthly Economic Forecast newsletter.

Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

33 of 33 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Great Theory...Mediocre Forecast, April 14, 1998

By 

Bob G. "Stock Market Advantage" (Tampa, FL USA) - See all my reviews

This review is from: The Great Boom Ahead: Your Comprehensive Guide to Personal and Business Profit in the New Era Prosperity (Hardcover)

If you've been invested in stocks the last 15 years, most likely you are very satisfied with your results. If I said that the recent past was just a warmup for the next 10 years, you'd probably say I was out of my mind. When you look at the facts it appears that returns in the future could very well top what we've experienced over the past few years. A confluence of factors is about to change our society for the better; far better than most anticipate. In his 1993 book, The Great Boom Ahead, author Harry S. Dent, Jr. makes a very convincing case for a renaissance in the U.S. economy in the years ahead. I was a little skeptical when I picked up this book, but when I started reading it, it was obvious that Mr. Dent had done his homework. What's nice about reading a book like this, written several years in the past, is that a theory can be exposed for what it is; gold or hogwash. When you read this book and look at what has happened to the U.S. and world economies you can see that Mr. Dent has been very close to the mark. Granted, some of his specific predictions were more than a little off, but his big picture is correct. For example, he forecasted a major recession unfolding in 1993-94, along with a weak stock market dropping the Dow down to between 1700 and 2350. The Dow never got below 3000 after he published the book. However, the market was weak in '94, characterized by sector corrections. He did say that the market would reach new highs by the third quarter 1996, which was a great call, although he didn't specify a number.

The most compelling theory Mr. Dent espouses is called the spending wave. Basically, Mr. Dent demonstrates with demographic statistics that peoples spending peaks from ages 45-49. After age 50, spending drops off dramatically. Mr. Dent also demonstrates that there is a strong correlation between the number of people in their mid-40's with the performance of the stock market. The larger the number of mid-fortyish people, the stronger the market.

We've been bombarded by articles about the baby boom generation; the massive number of babies born in the late '40s through the early '60s. The baby boomers, of which I am one, are now between the ages of 37-52. They are divided in three major waves. The first and smallest wave has recently passed their peak spending years. The second wave of baby boomers is now at the mid-point of their peak spending years. The third, and largest wave by far, will be entering the peak spending years around the year 2000. If the statistics hold true, spending is going to dramatically increase in the next 10 years, accelerating economic growth.

Another major benefit we should experience over the next 10 years is subdued inflation. Mr. Dent argues that the reason for our economic troubles in the mid-'70s to early '80s were due to the assimilation of the vast number of young baby boomers into the labor force. When young people enter the work force, their productivity leaves something to be desired. If you have enough young people entering the economy at the same time, productivity is going to suffer. This, in turn, creates problems with inflation. Now that the baby boomers have been working and gaining experience for a number of years, their productivity has improved to the point where inflation is not the problem it once was.

Now to the payoff from all this good news. What do you get when you mix a strong economy with low inflation? A booming stock market! The first two waves of baby boomers are in their peak spending years now. The largest wave has yet to hit it's highest spending years. Mr. Dent wrote in his book that he expected the Dow to reach 8500 between the years 2006 and 2010. This prediction, when made in 1993 sounded outlandish. Now it is considered ridiculously low. If the correlation between the number of births and the level of the stock market holds true, the Dow should be close to 20,000. Unfortunately, Mr. Dent believes that a great depression will ensue after 2010, when the baby boomers start retiring and become a drag on the economy. He deserves our ear.END

21 of 24 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars A must read book for all to easily understand our economy, January 18, 1999

By A Customer

This review is from: Great Boom Ahead: YOUR COMPREHENSIVE GUIDE TO PERSONAL AND BUSINESS PROFIT IN THE NEW ERA OF PROSPERITY (Paperback)

I recently received this book as a gift. If I had read this book when it was first published, I would be financially and intellectually wealthy. After reading it, I am at least the latter. Everyone should read this book! I am on this web site to purchase the Roaring 2000's. If it is half as good as The Great Boom Ahead, it is well worth it. Bravo Mr. Dent!

12 of 13 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Real estate predictions in this book are right on the money, January 11, 1999

By 

J. Owen (Gunter, Texas) - See all my reviews
(REAL NAME)   

Amazon Verified Purchase

This review is from: Great Boom Ahead: YOUR COMPREHENSIVE GUIDE TO PERSONAL AND BUSINESS PROFIT IN THE NEW ERA OF PROSPERITY (Paperback)

I am a real estate developer of "exurb" properties just North of Dallas Texas and was introduced to Harry Dent's books just recently by an investor in our projects. After reading this book it is almost as if I read first then developed a business around Mr. Dent's real estate predictions. In fact it was just the opposite. I highly recommend this book. I know from first hand experience that when he states 20%of Americans are leaving the cities looking for homes in the exurbs, small towns within a convenient drive to the cities, that it is happening today. I have ordered several copies of this book and have given it out to my bankers, attornies, investors and customers. It is exciting to be part of the real world as predicted by Mr. Harry S. Dent, Jr.