Customer Reviews

The Great Boom Ahead: Your Comprehensive Guide to Personal and Business Profit in the New Era Prosperity

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If you've been invested in stocks the last 15 years, most likely you are very satisfied with your results. If I said that the recent past was just a warmup for the next 10 years, you'd probably say I was out of my mind. When you look at the facts it appears that returns in the future could very well top what we've experienced over the past few years. A confluence of factors is about to change our society for the better; far better than most anticipate. In his 1993 book, The Great Boom Ahead, author Harry S. Dent, Jr. makes a very convincing case for a renaissance in the U.S. economy in the years ahead. I was a little skeptical when I picked up this book, but when I started reading it, it was obvious that Mr. Dent had done his homework. What's nice about reading a book like this, written several years in the past, is that a theory can be exposed for what it is; gold or hogwash. When you read this book and look at what has happened to the U.S. and world economies you can see that Mr. Dent has been very close to the mark. Granted, some of his specific predictions were more than a little off, but his big picture is correct. For example, he forecasted a major recession unfolding in 1993-94, along with a weak stock market dropping the Dow down to between 1700 and 2350. The Dow never got below 3000 after he published the book. However, the market was weak in '94, characterized by sector corrections. He did say that the market would reach new highs by the third quarter 1996, which was a great call, although he didn't specify a number.

The most compelling theory Mr. Dent espouses is called the spending wave. Basically, Mr. Dent demonstrates with demographic statistics that peoples spending peaks from ages 45-49. After age 50, spending drops off dramatically. Mr. Dent also demonstrates that there is a strong correlation between the number of people in their mid-40's with the performance of the stock market. The larger the number of mid-fortyish people, the stronger the market.

We've been bombarded by articles about the baby boom generation; the massive number of babies born in the late '40s through the early '60s. The baby boomers, of which I am one, are now between the ages of 37-52. They are divided in three major waves. The first and smallest wave has recently passed their peak spending years. The second wave of baby boomers is now at the mid-point of their peak spending years. The third, and largest wave by far, will be entering the peak spending years around the year 2000. If the statistics hold true, spending is going to dramatically increase in the next 10 years, accelerating economic growth.

Another major benefit we should experience over the next 10 years is subdued inflation. Mr. Dent argues that the reason for our economic troubles in the mid-'70s to early '80s were due to the assimilation of the vast number of young baby boomers into the labor force. When young people enter the work force, their productivity leaves something to be desired. If you have enough young people entering the economy at the same time, productivity is going to suffer. This, in turn, creates problems with inflation. Now that the baby boomers have been working and gaining experience for a number of years, their productivity has improved to the point where inflation is not the problem it once was.

Now to the payoff from all this good news. What do you get when you mix a strong economy with low inflation? A booming stock market! The first two waves of baby boomers are in their peak spending years now. The largest wave has yet to hit it's highest spending years. Mr. Dent wrote in his book that he expected the Dow to reach 8500 between the years 2006 and 2010. This prediction, when made in 1993 sounded outlandish. Now it is considered ridiculously low. If the correlation between the number of births and the level of the stock market holds true, the Dow should be close to 20,000. Unfortunately, Mr. Dent believes that a great depression will ensue after 2010, when the baby boomers start retiring and become a drag on the economy. He deserves our ear.END

I recently received this book as a gift. If I had read this book when it was first published, I would be financially and intellectually wealthy. After reading it, I am at least the latter. Everyone should read this book! I am on this web site to purchase the Roaring 2000's. If it is half as good as The Great Boom Ahead, it is well worth it. Bravo Mr. Dent!

I am a real estate developer of "exurb" properties just North of Dallas Texas and was introduced to Harry Dent's books just recently by an investor in our projects. After reading this book it is almost as if I read first then developed a business around Mr. Dent's real estate predictions. In fact it was just the opposite. I highly recommend this book. I know from first hand experience that when he states 20%of Americans are leaving the cities looking for homes in the exurbs, small towns within a convenient drive to the cities, that it is happening today. I have ordered several copies of this book and have given it out to my bankers, attornies, investors and customers. It is exciting to be part of the real world as predicted by Mr. Harry S. Dent, Jr.

I read the hardback edition of this book soon after it was published. I considered it an interesting hypothesis at the time, but never expected it to be as accurate as it has proven to be. Not only have we had the incredible boom Mr Dent predicted, but now we see ample evidence of global recession orginating out of asia.

In his book, Mr Dent pretty accurately foretold the current economic boom we are in currently. His central hypothesis is extremely believable, and easy to understand. He also forecasts a coming major depression that follows this boom. I hope he updates this book! Timing is everything. Caveat: there is a lot of the vertical pronoun used throughout this book. I still recommend it for any investor.

This is a very valuable book for any investor. Despite most economists' attempts to complicate matters, Dent gives the reader an invaluable insight into how profoundly simple economic prediction can be. Fundamentally, he shows how it all boils down to demographics. I'd challenge any economist to prove him wrong.

Harry Dent uses a simple and overlooked correlation between the age & size of the population and its relation to the value of the Standard & Poors index. The graphs in his book show a remarkable relationship between these two indices. The book, written in 1993 when the Dow Industrials stood at 2800, predicted a solid boom in the US stock market. And indeed it has happened, our current Dow in February of 1997 at 6800. A must read for the investor who wants to know why the economy is growing so prolifically, inflation is now deflation, and unemployment is so low in the USA

Harry S. Dent, Jr.'s book is remarkable both for the overall accuracy of its predictions and for the simplistic model upon which those predictions depend. Written in 1993, it claims a niche within the general family of "trend" books written by the likes of Alvin Toffler and John Naisbitt. The work anticipated our current era of super bullish markets, which it predicts will continue through 2007. The crystal ball drops a few items, given that a few years have passed since publication. Nonetheless, it offers a clear macroeconomic forecast and investment tool. If you sense the Fed just doesn't get the New Economy, this is the book for you. We [...] recommend this book to those seeking to understand the United States' era of record-breaking economic gains (and Japan's current hard times).

Harry Dent really made a spectacular call back in 1993 in this book about the tremendous rise in the Dow during the 90's. He even predicted the slump in 2002-2003. His ideas of why this happened are presented in a simple theme that I found very intuitive. This book is a gem.
As for other books by Mr. Dent, he decided to contradict himself and go for very unrealistic goals for the Dow. Read this book and ONLY this book. Too late to make a killing on the stock market but still time to get out of stocks before the coming slump.
UPDATE November, 2008:
Amazing. Forget about ALL of Mr. Dent's predictions after this book was written. Here are some direct quotes from this book. And he wrote this in 1993.
Mr. Dent states very clearly on page 16 "The next great depression will be from 2008 to 2023. How long will the depression last? 12 to 15 years. Why? The peak of the baby boom births occurred between 1957 in 1961. The next wave of births did not turn up until 1973 to 1976, or 12 to 15 years later. So you can expect a major economic downturn, starting around 2008 and lasting to around 2022 to 2023. No amount of government stimulus will prevent it, just as it didn't prevent the Great Depression of the 1930s." Now he wrote this book in 1993! Housing "housing will grow dramatically from 2000 to 2004".
Business failure. "This is a period of reckoning for the excesses that develop in the growth boom. As they prosper, industries invest far too much and building capacity in the race for leadership in growth markets. Therefore, when consumer demands drop predictably after a peak of a generation's spending wave, the economy is left with a pool of excess capacity. Price wars result from everybody dumping product at lower prices. A shakeout occurs, leading to the survival of the fittest. Only strong companies with greatest economic scale and brand loyalties will survive these times. This shakeout process results in layoffs and bankruptcies, which generate persistently high levels of unemployment and deflation in prices. Depressions occur at very specific time in the industry cycle. They can be predicted, and even tempered, but not prevented."
1993. He predicted this in 1993.

It was interesting book and having read it in 2001, I can see that many of his simple forecasts in the 90's are often on the mark. However there are many flaws that reflects his boomer navel-gazing. Why, I wonder, did Dent never chart the population surges of Silent Generation or Generation X? Moreover, where did all the immigrants disappeared to? Did they fell into the black hole after entering America? What about the inner-city blacks with unusally high crime-imprisoned rate? What about the endless resources from nanotech, biotech, and outer space? What about the cracking of welfare states now that communism is no longer a threat? I am sure that if Dent have charted all these information, the picture will look striking different.For example, many boomers prided themselves on being "largest generation". Based on simple birth rate, this is correct, but the picture is incomplete. The busters or Gen X may have smaller birth rate, but far higher immigrantion since the 60's, particulary after Vietnam War when many young people and children escaped dictatorships from Asia and Eastern Europe. Taken together, the Gen X is actually a far larger generation in simple numbers than so-called Boomers. At same time, it also have smaller capital to start business with and must struggle with crack-up of welfare state at same time. Yet, the Xers are more likely and more willing to start businesses and freelance than Boomers who must deal with downsizing from comfortable white and blue collar jobs that they were trained for all their lives.

So as far as I am concerned, there may be a big recession as the boomers retired (certainly, there will certainly be a death of welfare state by that time, and with it, the politics as the driving force of economy) but there will not be a great depression like or greater than that of the 1930's.