The Great Cycle: Predicting and Profiting from Crowd Behavior, the Kondratieff Wave, and Long-Term Cycles [Hardcover]

Dick Stoken (Author)

Book Description

Publication Date: April 1993

Informative grade on long-term economic cycles and how they impact our financial lives. We must understand the past in order to forecast the future, and no other book explains where we've been and where we're going as this one does. Find out why Stoken believes we are now in a period of major transition and what you should do about it.

Product Details

• Hardcover: 225 pages
• Publisher: Probus Professional Pub; Rev Sub edition (April 1993)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 1557384878
• ISBN-13: 978-1557384874
• Product Dimensions: 9 x 6 x 0.9 inches
• Shipping Weight: 1.2 pounds
• Average Customer Review: 4.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (1 customer review)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #930,544 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

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1 of 1 people found the following review helpful:

4.0 out of 5 stars Dow 40,000, Dow 1,700, February 19, 2006

By 

D. Nishimoto "Golden Lion" (USA) - See all my reviews
(REAL NAME)   

This review is from: The Great Cycle: Predicting and Profiting from Crowd Behavior, the Kondratieff Wave, and Long-Term Cycles (Hardcover)

Anytime the DOW average falls 16 2/3 percent or more and reaches the lowest level for the year, we can consider it a bear trend. When determining when to buy, watch for the following pattern: during a Kondratieff upswing, the low of the bear trend prior to the last bull market high is the important prior low because, when it is broken, it tells us that we are near the low of a major bear market. The generally weak financial conditions make it unlikely the DOW will rally back and make a new high following a bear trend. At the beginning of the depression phase it appears that for a bear trend to be an important prior low, it must be a five year low or more. A buy opportunity occurs shortly after the break of the important prior low. It takes courage to buy at this moment and the investor will need to break the prevailing pessimism and buy. In this case the investor could wait three months before buying.

The following pattern signals its time to sell. During Kondratieff up waves, a psychology of increasing optimism leads people to extend their economic commitments. The result is a three stage bull market, these secular bull markets generally last eight years and sometimes longer. The first stage is recovery and lasts until the DOW has hit an all time high. The second phase induces major changes in perception and represents a shift in investor sentiment where the investor suddenly turns his economic outlook to a favorable economic prospective. Suddenly there is a significant number of new risk takers, who are attract to buying stocks and this creates a vast reservoir of buying power and a new bull market emerges for a minimum of four years too 49 months, a 16 2/3 percent or more break occurs downward price pressure, but too many people believe the stock market is a good place to be and are willing to buy back the break. The DOW returns to a new all time high following the setback and investors think they are on the brink of perpetual prosperity, 49 months pass in the third stage and its time to think about selling.

If the past is any guide to the future, we can expect to see a series of bear markets, during which there is a chance the DOW will shrink to at least 1,700. We are in the last up third wave, as the DOW has surged past 11,000 mark and third wave, peaking around 40,000. If the third wave started in 2002 and it will run between 4 year too 49 months and should peak around 2009. 2009 would complete the four year - 49 month cycle and should signal its is time to sell. By selling the investor acts prudently waiting waiting for a new long wave buy pattern too emerge.