The Great Depression Ahead: How to Prosper in the Debt Crisis of 2010 - 2012 [Paperback]

Harry S. Dent (Author)

Book Description

Publication Date: December 29, 2009

Harry S. Dent predicted our current economic crisis, and he foresees still more to come. He predicts that we are headed further towards a major depression reminiscent of Japan’s major recession more than a decade ago, from which their real estate market has yet to recover. With the current state of the stock market causing investors around the world to be nervous, and searching for answers, The Great Depression Ahead offers important advice to help readers not just survive, but prosper in the face of the crash.

Dent has developed theories that have accurately predicted changes in the market. He is a frequent target of economists, yet with few exceptions, Dent has always been right about the market. With fully updated predictions and reflections on all that has happened since the hardcover came out in December of 2008, this is a book on the economic crisis that we can’t afford not to read.

Editorial Reviews

Review

"While being one of the most bullish and accurate forecasters for 20 years, Dent has always been warning that this great boom would end around 2008-2009. He now sees a bigger crash ahead and a deflationary environment that could ravage your portfolio. His warnings and predictions are well worth reading and taking seriously." -- David Bach, #1 New York Times bestselling author of Start Late, Finish Rich and The Automatic Millionaire

"While many talk of change these days, the real question lies in assessing in what direction things will change. Harry Dent does a masterful job using demographics and other key cycles to lay out where and when changes will come that will have sweeping ramifications for our pocketbooks, our way of life, and our nation. I cannot more highly recommend this book." -- Mark Sanford, governor of South Carolina

"Economists cannot forecast the economy very well, and most would admit it if their jobs didn't depend on the fiction that they can. So most economists become closet extrapolators, with some minor tweaking for visible pending developments and policy changes. Even I can see to the next corner pretty well, but I can't see around the corner. There is one exception, however. Demographics! Demography, as they say, is destiny. The reason is that you can see the future based on the facts of the present and demonstrated behavior. You can see the pig, or the pigs, going through the python. Harry Dent is the reigning expert in applying sophisticated demographic analysis to economic forecasting. His past record of getting it right speaks for itself. I hope he's wrong this time. I hope we don't have a great depression by 2010. But given his track record, I won't be betting against him." -- Robert D. McTeer, Distinguished Fellow, National Center for Policy Analysis, and former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

About the Author

Harry S. Dent, Jr. is the president of the H.S. Dent Foundation, whose mission is "Helping People Understand Change." He is the founder of HS Dent, which publishes the HS Dent Forecast and oversees the HS Dent Financial Advisors Network. He is the author of the New York Times bestseller, The Great Depression Ahead, as well as of The Great Boom Ahead, in which he stood virtually alone in accurately forecasting the unanticipated "boom" of the 1990s. A Harvard MBA, Fortune 100 consultant, new venture investor, and noted speaker, Mr. Dent is a highly respected figure in his field.

Rodney Johnson is the president of HS Dent, an independent economic research and investment management firm. He oversees the daily operations of the companies and is a regular contributor to the HS Forecast and the HS Dent Perspective. A graduate of Georgetown University and Southern Methodist University, Mr. Johnson is a frequent guest on radio and television programs to discuss economic changes in the United States and around the world.

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Product Details

• Paperback: 416 pages
• Publisher: Free Press; Rev Upd edition (December 29, 2009)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 141658899X
• ISBN-13: 978-1416588993
• Product Dimensions: 8.3 x 5.4 x 1.1 inches
• Shipping Weight: 12.8 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)
• Average Customer Review: 3.2 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (18 customer reviews)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #219,842 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

More About the Author

Harry S. Dent, Jr. mission as CEO and founder of economic research and analysis company HS Dent is 'Helping People Understand Economic Change'. As a former strategic consultant at Bain & Company, Dent's analysis states that demographic trends are the greatest drivers of our economy, along with radical new technologies, working together to follow a four-stage life cycle of innovation, growth, shakeout, and maturity. Since 1992 he has authored two consecutive best sellers The Roaring 2000s and The Roaring 2000s Investor (Simon and Schuster). In his latest book The Great Depression Ahead(Free Press), Harry Dent offers portfolio allocation strategies during an economic crisis, as well as the bad news that the worst of the housing downturn will occur between 2010 and 2013. Harry Dent also publishes the HS Dent Monthly Economic Forecast newsletter.

Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

36 of 40 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Best advice found nowhere else, March 7, 2010

By 

AC "Octopus" - See all my reviews

This review is from: The Great Depression Ahead: How to Prosper in the Debt Crisis of 2010 - 2012 (Paperback)

People who judge him harshly are basing their opinion on a very narrow point of view. I own his book from the 90's which predicted this huge market crash. I have his charts that accurately predict it. In 2002 when I was looking at houses to buy I decided to stay away from real estate because his charts show a bad market years ahead.(he was right) I knew from his book I had maybe five years to own the house and sell and decided rather just stay out of the housing market because timing the peak would not be easy(that save me $200,000 based on the value of homes around here). This decade he did change some predictions delaying the horrible scenerio based on immigration numbers. If he had stuck with his original forecast he would have been better off. To say he is wrong is an overstatement. Being off by a couple years does not make him wrong. Use the information wisely. Based on his original book I've been telling people we will be in a Depression around 2008-2009. That was years ago going all the way back to 1994. Now we are in a Depression, or the very beginning of one. People hate those who make predictions. The CNBC "experts" went with popular opinion saying the market will just keep going good. They were wrong, Dent was right. Get this book, it's a great resource to keep your money growing.

41 of 48 people found the following review helpful:

1.0 out of 5 stars From Eighth Annual Mutual Fund Turkey Awards, February 11, 2010

By 

Ross (Louisville) - See all my reviews

This review is from: The Great Depression Ahead: How to Prosper in the Debt Crisis of 2010 - 2012 (Paperback)

The "Ultimate Charlatan" Award

Winner: Harry S. Dent

The worst investing advice usually arrives near the top and bottom of stock market cycles. Demographic trends guru Harry S. Dent is making the rounds again, and touting his latest book, The Great Depression Ahead: How to Prosper in the Crash Following the Greatest Boom in History.

Out in January 2009, the book arrives just in time to profit from the market downturn. When the new book drops, those who made massive profits after reading Dent's The Next Great Bubble Boom: How to Profit from the Greatest Boom in History: 2006-2010 (published in January 2006 at the very peak of the real estate bubble) can parlay their winnings into even greater profits.

In his 2006 work, Dent predicts, "The Dow hitting 40,000 by the end of the decade, the Nasdaq advancing at least ten times from its October 2001 lows to around 13,500, and potentially as high as 20,000 by 2009...The Great Boom resurging into its final and strongest stage in 2007, and even more fully in 2008, lasting until late 2009 to early 2010."

Of course, those who read The Roaring 2000s, Dent's 1999 masterpiece, should soon be buying each of us a turkey with all the fixin's. According to the book, only a year remains before the Dow breaks 40,000 and the Nasdaq hits 20,000, at which time we'll simply amplify our fortunes by shorting stocks in the coming depression. We can't underestimate how big this final move up will be before the depression kicks in, since The Dow and Nasdaq are currently quite a bit lower than they were back in 1999 when The Roaring 2000s was published.

Of course, profiting from epic changes takes time. Perhaps the AIM Dent Demographic Trends Fund (ADDAX) - a mutual fund ascribing to the Dent path to riches - tanked after raising over $1 billion simply because short-sighted investors didn't give stocks like JDS Uniphase (JDSU) time to come back from the current blip. Merged out of existence by AIM fund executives who clearly don't understand long-term demographic trend investing, the fund didn't survive to demonstrate its full potential.

This was not the only mutual fund launched by gurus who can see the future better than the rest of us. It was not the only one quashed due to poor performance, either.

Bottom line, when investors are feeling irrationally exuberant, feed `em Dow 40,000. When they're feeling irrationally pessimistic, it's time to pull out the Depression talk. It might not make your investors money, but you'll make a killing in book sales.

18 of 20 people found the following review helpful:

3.0 out of 5 stars Loking at the trees - not the forest, March 16, 2010

By 

Avid Reader (Franklin, Tn) - See all my reviews

This review is from: The Great Depression Ahead: How to Prosper in the Debt Crisis of 2010 - 2012 (Paperback)

The title of the review refers to numerous critics who have nit-picked this book from several angles while ignoring its basic premise. Dent is a prognosticator - not an economist much less a prophet. He studies general trends and makes fairly reasonable (and timely) assertions and sometimes correct forecasts. It is silly yet fascinating to make specific predictions adn they should not be taken seriously. There are too many unknowns for long-term pinpointing.

Dent's thesis is that economic health is a function of demographics; innovation derives from a stream of young ideas; spending is primarily a function of age and nations that grow will thrive. This is the forest. The trees are things like war, depression, bubbles, commodities and markets.

I agree with the thrust of his assertion. It's obvious that nations like Germany, Italy, Russia, Japan and others with declining populations will fare poorly in the future. They will lack not only young innovators but also the mindset required for innovation. With fewer workers and more on the dole the financial burden will become onerous. In many places it already has.

My major complaint is Dent's mixing apples and oranges. He correctly describes how the West has given the developing world a head start, compressing modern industrialization into decades rather than the centuries required by Europe. This phenomenon is a result of technological advances. Yet, he still maintains that other cycles will go on as before - 3,000 years, 500, 250, 8, 15, 10, etc. (He introduces so many cycles, charts, swings and growth curves that they become blurred.) What will happen when artificial intelligence,robotics, nanotech and bioengineering reach advanced stages of development? My guess is that all best are off.

Other uncertainties: Deflation (not inflation), a strengthening dollar, "resolution of federal debt" (not to mention solving the problem of Social Security and Medicare), a "Democratic trend" in the electorate and India as the eventual number one. My Grade: B-