Customer Reviews

The Great Depression Ahead: How to Prosper in the Debt Crisis of 2010 - 2012

5 star:		(8)
4 star:		(1)
3 star:		(2)
2 star:		(1)
1 star:		(6)

 

 

People who judge him harshly are basing their opinion on a very narrow point of view. I own his book from the 90's which predicted this huge market crash. I have his charts that accurately predict it. In 2002 when I was looking at houses to buy I decided to stay away from real estate because his charts show a bad market years ahead.(he was right) I knew from his book I had maybe five years to own the house and sell and decided rather just stay out of the housing market because timing the peak would not be easy(that save me $200,000 based on the value of homes around here). This decade he did change some predictions delaying the horrible scenerio based on immigration numbers. If he had stuck with his original forecast he would have been better off. To say he is wrong is an overstatement. Being off by a couple years does not make him wrong. Use the information wisely. Based on his original book I've been telling people we will be in a Depression around 2008-2009. That was years ago going all the way back to 1994. Now we are in a Depression, or the very beginning of one. People hate those who make predictions. The CNBC "experts" went with popular opinion saying the market will just keep going good. They were wrong, Dent was right. Get this book, it's a great resource to keep your money growing.

The "Ultimate Charlatan" Award
Winner: Harry S. Dent

The worst investing advice usually arrives near the top and bottom of stock market cycles. Demographic trends guru Harry S. Dent is making the rounds again, and touting his latest book, The Great Depression Ahead: How to Prosper in the Crash Following the Greatest Boom in History.

Out in January 2009, the book arrives just in time to profit from the market downturn. When the new book drops, those who made massive profits after reading Dent's The Next Great Bubble Boom: How to Profit from the Greatest Boom in History: 2006-2010 (published in January 2006 at the very peak of the real estate bubble) can parlay their winnings into even greater profits.

In his 2006 work, Dent predicts, "The Dow hitting 40,000 by the end of the decade, the Nasdaq advancing at least ten times from its October 2001 lows to around 13,500, and potentially as high as 20,000 by 2009...The Great Boom resurging into its final and strongest stage in 2007, and even more fully in 2008, lasting until late 2009 to early 2010."

Of course, those who read The Roaring 2000s, Dent's 1999 masterpiece, should soon be buying each of us a turkey with all the fixin's. According to the book, only a year remains before the Dow breaks 40,000 and the Nasdaq hits 20,000, at which time we'll simply amplify our fortunes by shorting stocks in the coming depression. We can't underestimate how big this final move up will be before the depression kicks in, since The Dow and Nasdaq are currently quite a bit lower than they were back in 1999 when The Roaring 2000s was published.

Of course, profiting from epic changes takes time. Perhaps the AIM Dent Demographic Trends Fund (ADDAX) - a mutual fund ascribing to the Dent path to riches - tanked after raising over $1 billion simply because short-sighted investors didn't give stocks like JDS Uniphase (JDSU) time to come back from the current blip. Merged out of existence by AIM fund executives who clearly don't understand long-term demographic trend investing, the fund didn't survive to demonstrate its full potential.

This was not the only mutual fund launched by gurus who can see the future better than the rest of us. It was not the only one quashed due to poor performance, either.

Bottom line, when investors are feeling irrationally exuberant, feed `em Dow 40,000. When they're feeling irrationally pessimistic, it's time to pull out the Depression talk. It might not make your investors money, but you'll make a killing in book sales.

The title of the review refers to numerous critics who have nit-picked this book from several angles while ignoring its basic premise. Dent is a prognosticator - not an economist much less a prophet. He studies general trends and makes fairly reasonable (and timely) assertions and sometimes correct forecasts. It is silly yet fascinating to make specific predictions adn they should not be taken seriously. There are too many unknowns for long-term pinpointing.

Dent's thesis is that economic health is a function of demographics; innovation derives from a stream of young ideas; spending is primarily a function of age and nations that grow will thrive. This is the forest. The trees are things like war, depression, bubbles, commodities and markets.

I agree with the thrust of his assertion. It's obvious that nations like Germany, Italy, Russia, Japan and others with declining populations will fare poorly in the future. They will lack not only young innovators but also the mindset required for innovation. With fewer workers and more on the dole the financial burden will become onerous. In many places it already has.

My major complaint is Dent's mixing apples and oranges. He correctly describes how the West has given the developing world a head start, compressing modern industrialization into decades rather than the centuries required by Europe. This phenomenon is a result of technological advances. Yet, he still maintains that other cycles will go on as before - 3,000 years, 500, 250, 8, 15, 10, etc. (He introduces so many cycles, charts, swings and growth curves that they become blurred.) What will happen when artificial intelligence,robotics, nanotech and bioengineering reach advanced stages of development? My guess is that all best are off.

Other uncertainties: Deflation (not inflation), a strengthening dollar, "resolution of federal debt" (not to mention solving the problem of Social Security and Medicare), a "Democratic trend" in the electorate and India as the eventual number one. My Grade: B-

This is not a book for the ages, i.e. this book will not be read at all ten years from now. But even as for reading it in the present, this book pretends to be an exhaustive summary of today's illness rather than what it actually is: amongst other things, a play to get scared folk, wannabe financiers and wannabe real-estate types to shell out the cash to subscribe to Harry Dent's newsletter.

The only positive about this book is that if you are completely ignorant, then this book has some information. But it is precisely these people that are easy to lead down the wrong path. The information about demographics is illustrative and makes sense, if you can separate it from the claims and propaganda that surround it. And finally, none of this book will be new at all to those who are interested in such things, the information all being available.

This book is shilled by plenty of financial people, a head of a Federal Reserve bank and even a governor. To counter such power, let me critique it chapter by chapter:
Prologue - Sounds very reasonable. Makes the case for everything being explained by an analysis of a lot of 'cycles' in history, and the process of Dent's continuing evolution of his research methods.
1.The Great Crash of late 2009-2010 - A full chapter of forecasts without any explanation why. Many of them sound reasonable, but it slowly starts to stretch your belief.
2.The Fundamental Trends that drive our economy - Contains the two cycles that make sense, a demographic cycle and a technology cycle. However, the combination of the two cycles at the end of the chapter seems wrong.
3.New Geopolitical, Commodity and Recurring cycles - Is he dreaming? This chapter seems fantastical. A civilization cycle every 5000 years?? A terrorist cycle every 8-9 years (based on 1993 WTC and 9/11, and therefore 2010!)??? Or, is that some kind of warning?
4.The Greatest Bubble ever in real estate - This seems to be his area of expertise. Combines demographics to make sense in different real estate categories.
5.Echo boomers continue to move - This chapter on migration makes sense ONLY given existing assumptions. But what if Americans cannot as many cars as they have in the past? What if oil reaches new peaks? These fundamentals will change migration trends.
6.Changing Global Demographic trends - This might be new to many people, but if you're aware of this already, again there's nothing new. There is an investigation of many individual countries across the world.
7.The Clustering of Risks and Returns - Seems designed to intimidate and seems out of place in a supposedly non-technical book. A clustering of various mathematical concepts and didn't seem to have any connection (at least to me, and I don't think I'm dumb), and the chapter ends by stating, out of the blue, that conventional investing strategies won't work.
8.Investment, Business and Life Strategies for the great winter - This chapter has his investing ideas. Invest in bonds; How to invest each year from now on; and what to do with your business, education and healthcare in the coming years.
9.Political and Social impacts of the Great Depression - This chapter makes sense and ends with forecasts that might or might not be true.

All in all, this book sounds like a wishlist of what Dent wants to come true. But is it reliable? He states that inflation cannot happen, but what if it does. Will you lose your money? Wolves like these among the sheep make this book dangerous, which is why the book insert has the 'Read this at your Own Risk' disclaimer. Ultimately, the topic he is addressing is a very complex topic which needs time and effort to be understood. But there is a mass market for instant comprehension that Dent is trying to satisfy. All said and done, in the Great Depression, the financial sector will collapse from being 15% of the US economy to less than 5%, and people like Dent have to find ways and means to survive. What better than coming up with a mass-market bestseller to enrich oneself and continue doing so.

This book presents a comprehensive analysis of the global demographic trends which led to the economic crisis we are now enjoying and describes what that analysis and those trends portend for America's and the world's economic future. The statistical data analyzed include the number of people being born each year and the average age at which they enter the workforce, marry, have children, buy a home, reach their spending peak, begin saving in earnest, retire, etc. Nothing, it would seem, was overlooked in this analysis and, as near as I can tell, no detail was too small for Mr. Dent to consider. As a result, it would be quite difficult for anyone to argue with the contents of this book or with the forecasts of its author.

The author contends that based on an analysis of past history -- historical demographic data correlated with the economic events of the times, e.g. the Great Depression of the 1930s -- the current economic crisis was unavoidable regardless of what the U.S. Government/FED did or didn't do; and nothing the government/FED can do or not do will prevent the equally inevitable "shakeout" or depression to follow. And he demonstrates, at least to the satisfaction any reasonable jury, why this, in all probability, is true. This makes this a compelling book and an absolute must read.

Here are a few tidbits from the book which may peak a reader's interest: The author fully explains how and why the "baby boom" generation -- simply by being born, going about its business, raising its children and aging -- brought about the recent economic boom. He argues that, as a result of this surge and ultimate bubble, another "Great Depression" is inevitable and -- in an economic sense -- is a good thing since it will bring the over-leveraged U.S. economy back in line with historical trends by de-leveraging the existing massive public and private debt. He also reasons that the other developed nations of the world won't allow the U.S. dollar to fail unless the U.S. government does something really stupid, simply because those governments hold so many U.S. dollars in their reserves. On the contrary, he asserts that when the U.S. economy begins to collapse in earnest, the resulting loan defaults will precipitate so many bank failures that their magnitude will overwhelm any attempts by the government/FED to stimulate the economy. This will result in a global "deflationary" depression in which the value of the dollar will fall, but will fall far less than that of precious metals such as gold. This is a far different forecast than that of many other recognized experts who expect precious metals to rise as the dollar collapses. Dollars, liquid assets, the author declares, are what one should hold while waiting for the once in a lifetime investment opportunities which the depression will present. By comparing the present situation with that of the Great Depression of the 1930s, the author identifies just what those opportunities might be and when they are most likely to occur from approximately 2010 to 2022.

With all this in mind: It seems to me that anyone concerned about the immediate future (~2010-2036) and the possibility of a second Great Depression would be a fool not to take these analyses into consideration -- especially if that person has been led to believe that investments in precious metals may be his or her economic salvation in the years to come. For, if nothing else, Mr. Dent has certainly thrown another puck on the economic ice. The question is: Who's off sides, and which is the real puck.

Mr. Dent continues to masquerade as a market savant but in reality continues merely as a shameless huckster. At least this time I borrowed his latest puff-piece from my local library and didn't waste my money by purchasing it. Sadly, I can't get my time back. Don't waste either of yours.

I labored through this book and found absolutely nothing in it worthwhile to me as a speculator and investor. If you are a budding economist or stat geek this is the book for you. If you are seeking information and techniques to protect your money during the current market and banking fiasco there are other and much better books out there. Mr. Dent does not take a break from beginning to end to promote his products, website or services. This gets EXTREMELY tiresome quickly! If you want me to read your advertisement please do not charge me $17.00 to do so. Frustrating, confusing and nebulous are other words that I would use to describe this book. Read Martin D. Weiss, Peter D. Schiff, Howard Ruff or Warren Brussee if you are in search of timely and pertinent investing/speculation information. Their books are much better than this one.

Relevant, comprehensive and timely. This economist has done his homework. We are right in the middle of this 3 year transition in global crisis. The middle east, europe, asia will all add to the financial crisis. There was no "recovery" after the HEIST in Sept. 2008. You don't "recover" from the trillions that went missing. You don't make invented assets out of thin air. They knew it was coming. Prepare for changes people...BIG changes in the monetary system. Enron was not an accident. We are living a script. Read it here.

Between these 2 books I have selected, I have gained immense insight on some perplexing items we are dealing with in this country. A repeat of the 1929 Crash, to lead into one of the worse depression eras this country ever saw. Repeating the cycle is just a doorstep away if our politicians don't wake up and the economic structure does not change, Mistakes were made and repairs are in order, hopefully not to late. Much of it to do with this failing economy. This is to help prove a point in my mind that the certain few want the certain group of many to fall and in respect be able to bring to it knees, those that lived in comfortable living situations and funds, to care for family and loved ones to change that and propel this economy back into depression era's, hurting the unfortuate large population of people, those who lost so much already. Fairness is not what is in this book, but reality, that if you are aware of your surroundings, then being one step in front may just make a survivor out of you. Nothing is for sure but knowledge is surperb next to closing your eyes and all of it just might go away. It won't, buck up and dust yourself off, change it, make things go to work for you. Read for future reference>>The Great Crash Ahead: Strategies for a World Turned Upside Down

The first book i read of Harry Dent's was "the great boom ahead" writing about the great baby boomer retirement. i cannot believe how right on track Harry was. and NOW, he's done it again with the "Great Depression Ahead" - you ever want to know what's going to happen in the economy - just read one of Harry Dent's books.
Fantastic read, written for the lay person without an economics degree to understand.