The Great Depression Ahead: How to Prosper in the Crash That Follows the Greatest Boom in History [Abridged, Audiobook] [Audio CD]

Harry S. Dent (Author, Reader)

Book Description

Publication Date: January 6, 2009

The New York Times bestselling author of The Roaring 2000s guides listeners through the biggest economic crisis since the Great Depression

The first and last economic depression that you will experience in your lifetime is just ahead. The years 2009 and 2010 will be the initial end of prosperity in almost every market, ushering in a downturn like most of us have not experienced before. Renowned economic forecaster Harry S. Dent, Jr. has developed analytical techniques that allow him to predict the impact of economic trends, including the following:

• The economy appears to recover from the subprime crisis and minor recession by mid-to-late 2009 "the calm before the real storm."

• Stock prices start to crash again between mid-to-late 2009 into late 2010, and likely finally bottom around mid 2012-between Dow 3,800 and 4,500.

• The economy enters a deeper depression between mid 2010 and early 2011, likely extending off and on into late 2012 or mid 2013.

• Asian markets may bottom by late 2010, along with health care, and be the first great buy opportunities in stocks.

• The next broad-based global bull market from 2020-2023 into 2035-2036.

Conventional investment wisdom will no longer apply, and investors must drastically reevaluate their policies in order to survive. Dent offers long and short-term recommendations that will allow families, businesses, investors, and individuals to manage their assets correctly and come out on top rather than get caught in a downward spiral.

Editorial Reviews

Review

"Economists cannot forecast the economy very well, and most would admit it if their jobs didn't depend on the fiction that they can. So most economists become closet extrapolators, with some minor tweaking for visible pending developments and policy changes. Even I can see to the next corner pretty well, but I can't see around the corner.There is one exception, however. Demographics! Demography, as they say, is destiny. The reason is that you can see the future based on the facts of the present and demonstrated behavior. You can see the pig, or the pigs, going through the python.Harry Dent is the reigning expert in applying sophisticated demographic analysis to economic forecasting. His past record of getting it right speaks for itself. I hope he's wrong this time. I hope we don't have a great depression by 2010. But given his track record, I won't be betting against him." --Robert D. McTeer, Distinguished Fellow, National Center for Policy Analysis, and former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

"Dent has always been warning that this great boom would end around 2008-2009. He now sees a bigger crash ahead and a deflationary environment that could ravage your portfolio. His warnings and predictions are well worth reading and taking seriously." -- David Bach, #1 New York Times bestselling author of The Automatic Millionaire

"While many talk of change these days, the real question lies in assessing in what direction things will change. Harry Dent does a masterful job using demographics and other key cycles to lay out where and when changes will come that will have sweeping ramifications for our pocketbooks, our way of life, and our nation. I cannot more highly recommend this book." -- Mark Sanford, governor of South Carolina

"Economists cannot forecast the economy very well, and most would admit it if their jobs didn't depend on the fiction that they can. So most economists become closet extrapolators, with some minor tweaking for visible pending developments and policy changes. Even I can see to the next corner pretty well, but I can't see around the corner.There is one exception, however. Demographics! Demography, as they say, is destiny. The reason is that you can see the future based on the facts of the present and demonstrated behavior. You can see the pig, or the pigs, going through the python.Harry Dent is the reigning expert in applying sophisticated demographic analysis to economic forecasting. His past record of getting it right speaks for itself. I hope he's wrong this time. I hope we don't have a great depression by 2010. But given his track record, I won't be betting against him." --Robert D. McTeer, Distinguished Fellow, National Center for Policy Analysis, and former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

About the Author

Harry S. Dent, Jr., is President of the H. S. Dent Foundation, whose mission is "Helping People Understand Change." In his first book, The Great Boom Ahead, published in 1992, he stood virtually alone in forecasting the unanticipated boom of the 1990s. He has since authored two bestselling books, The Roaring 2000s and The Roaring 2000s Investor. A Harvard MBA, Fortune 100 consultant, new venture founder and investor, and noted speaker, Dent offers a refreshingly positive view of the future with practical applications at all levels.

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Product Details

• Audio CD
• Publisher: Simon & Schuster Audio; Abridged edition (January 6, 2009)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0743580753
• ISBN-13: 978-0743580755
• Product Dimensions: 5.8 x 5.3 x 1 inches
• Shipping Weight: 6.4 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)
• Average Customer Review: 3.5 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (8 customer reviews)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #770,309 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

48 of 68 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars GIVE THE GUY A BREAK!, December 31, 2008

By 

David J. Easterla "work hard, play hard" (Sacramento, Ca) - See all my reviews
(REAL NAME)   

This review is from: The Great Depression Ahead: How to Prosper in the Crash That Follows the Greatest Boom in History (Audio CD)

No economist is always right. Dent's basic concept of predicting the economy is spot on. It's just the more finer details that get him into trouble. That's what happens when you start writing books instead of just sticking with what you do best. To Dent's credit he has stuck his neck out on some big calls against all other economist and he prevailed. He was actually one of the earliest if not the first to call this coming depression in his first book published in 1993 called "The Great Boom Ahead." Page 16 - "The next great depression will be from 2008 to 2023" "the mother of all depressions" "No amount of government stimulus will prevent it, just as it didn't prevent the Great Depression of the 1930's." Some big words considering he said them 15 years ago. Yah, Harry has called some bad ones over the years but unfortunatly I think he got this one right. I hope he's wrong!

2 of 2 people found the following review helpful:

1.0 out of 5 stars untrustworthy, fundamentally wrong, and very subtle propaganda, April 1, 2011

By 

Jake Gay "Slap" (LA, CA) - See all my reviews

This review is from: The Great Depression Ahead: How to Prosper in the Crash That Follows the Greatest Boom in History (Audio CD)

This is not a book for the ages, i.e. this book will not be read at all ten years from now. But even as for reading it in the present, this book pretends to be an exhaustive summary of today's illness rather than what it actually is: amongst other things, a play to get scared folk, wannabe financiers and wannabe real-estate types to shell out the cash to subscribe to Harry Dent's newsletter.

The only positive about this book is that if you are completely ignorant, then this book has some information. But it is precisely these people that are easy to lead down the wrong path. The information about demographics is illustrative and makes sense, if you can separate it from the claims and propaganda that surround it. And finally, none of this book will be new at all to those who are interested in such things, the information all being available.

This book is shilled by plenty of financial people, a head of a Federal Reserve bank and even a governor. To counter such power, let me critique it chapter by chapter:
Prologue - Sounds very reasonable. Makes the case for everything being explained by an analysis of a lot of 'cycles' in history, and the process of Dent's continuing evolution of his research methods.
1.The Great Crash of late 2009-2010 - A full chapter of forecasts without any explanation why. Many of them sound reasonable, but it slowly starts to stretch your belief.
2.The Fundamental Trends that drive our economy - Contains the two cycles that make sense, a demographic cycle and a technology cycle. However, the combination of the two cycles at the end of the chapter seems wrong.
3.New Geopolitical, Commodity and Recurring cycles - Is he dreaming? This chapter seems fantastical. A civilization cycle every 5000 years?? A terrorist cycle every 8-9 years (based on 1993 WTC and 9/11, and therefore 2010!)??? Or, is that some kind of warning?
4.The Greatest Bubble ever in real estate - This seems to be his area of expertise. Combines demographics to make sense in different real estate categories.
5.Echo boomers continue to move - This chapter on migration makes sense ONLY given existing assumptions. But what if Americans cannot as many cars as they have in the past? What if oil reaches new peaks? These fundamentals will change migration trends.
6.Changing Global Demographic trends - This might be new to many people, but if you're aware of this already, again there's nothing new. There is an investigation of many individual countries across the world.
7.The Clustering of Risks and Returns - Seems designed to intimidate and seems out of place in a supposedly non-technical book. A clustering of various mathematical concepts and didn't seem to have any connection (at least to me, and I don't think I'm dumb), and the chapter ends by stating, out of the blue, that conventional investing strategies won't work.
8.Investment, Business and Life Strategies for the great winter - This chapter has his investing ideas. Invest in bonds; How to invest each year from now on; and what to do with your business, education and healthcare in the coming years.
9.Political and Social impacts of the Great Depression - This chapter makes sense and ends with forecasts that might or might not be true.

All in all, this book sounds like a wishlist of what Dent wants to come true. But is it reliable? He states that inflation cannot happen, but what if it does. Will you lose your money? Wolves like these among the sheep make this book dangerous, which is why the book insert has the 'Read this at your Own Risk' disclaimer. Ultimately, the topic he is addressing is a very complex topic which needs time and effort to be understood. But there is a mass market for instant comprehension that Dent is trying to satisfy. All said and done, in the Great Depression, the financial sector will collapse from being 15% of the US economy to less than 5%, and people like Dent have to find ways and means to survive. What better than coming up with a mass-market bestseller to enrich oneself and continue doing so.

2 of 4 people found the following review helpful:

4.0 out of 5 stars The Great Depression Ahead, September 22, 2009

By 

Richard Arlen - See all my reviews
(REAL NAME)   

Amazon Verified Purchase

This review is from: The Great Depression Ahead: How to Prosper in the Crash That Follows the Greatest Boom in History (Audio CD)

A very good analysis. Too long and wordy. Too much over lap of histroical info. Should have been about 1/3 shorter.