Customer Reviews

The Great Depression Ahead: How to Prosper in the Crash That Follows the Greatest Boom in History

5 star:		(3)
4 star:		(2)
3 star:		(1)
2 star:		(0)
1 star:		(2)

 

 

No economist is always right. Dent's basic concept of predicting the economy is spot on. It's just the more finer details that get him into trouble. That's what happens when you start writing books instead of just sticking with what you do best. To Dent's credit he has stuck his neck out on some big calls against all other economist and he prevailed. He was actually one of the earliest if not the first to call this coming depression in his first book published in 1993 called "The Great Boom Ahead." Page 16 - "The next great depression will be from 2008 to 2023" "the mother of all depressions" "No amount of government stimulus will prevent it, just as it didn't prevent the Great Depression of the 1930's." Some big words considering he said them 15 years ago. Yah, Harry has called some bad ones over the years but unfortunatly I think he got this one right. I hope he's wrong!

This is not a book for the ages, i.e. this book will not be read at all ten years from now. But even as for reading it in the present, this book pretends to be an exhaustive summary of today's illness rather than what it actually is: amongst other things, a play to get scared folk, wannabe financiers and wannabe real-estate types to shell out the cash to subscribe to Harry Dent's newsletter.

The only positive about this book is that if you are completely ignorant, then this book has some information. But it is precisely these people that are easy to lead down the wrong path. The information about demographics is illustrative and makes sense, if you can separate it from the claims and propaganda that surround it. And finally, none of this book will be new at all to those who are interested in such things, the information all being available.

This book is shilled by plenty of financial people, a head of a Federal Reserve bank and even a governor. To counter such power, let me critique it chapter by chapter:
Prologue - Sounds very reasonable. Makes the case for everything being explained by an analysis of a lot of 'cycles' in history, and the process of Dent's continuing evolution of his research methods.
1.The Great Crash of late 2009-2010 - A full chapter of forecasts without any explanation why. Many of them sound reasonable, but it slowly starts to stretch your belief.
2.The Fundamental Trends that drive our economy - Contains the two cycles that make sense, a demographic cycle and a technology cycle. However, the combination of the two cycles at the end of the chapter seems wrong.
3.New Geopolitical, Commodity and Recurring cycles - Is he dreaming? This chapter seems fantastical. A civilization cycle every 5000 years?? A terrorist cycle every 8-9 years (based on 1993 WTC and 9/11, and therefore 2010!)??? Or, is that some kind of warning?
4.The Greatest Bubble ever in real estate - This seems to be his area of expertise. Combines demographics to make sense in different real estate categories.
5.Echo boomers continue to move - This chapter on migration makes sense ONLY given existing assumptions. But what if Americans cannot as many cars as they have in the past? What if oil reaches new peaks? These fundamentals will change migration trends.
6.Changing Global Demographic trends - This might be new to many people, but if you're aware of this already, again there's nothing new. There is an investigation of many individual countries across the world.
7.The Clustering of Risks and Returns - Seems designed to intimidate and seems out of place in a supposedly non-technical book. A clustering of various mathematical concepts and didn't seem to have any connection (at least to me, and I don't think I'm dumb), and the chapter ends by stating, out of the blue, that conventional investing strategies won't work.
8.Investment, Business and Life Strategies for the great winter - This chapter has his investing ideas. Invest in bonds; How to invest each year from now on; and what to do with your business, education and healthcare in the coming years.
9.Political and Social impacts of the Great Depression - This chapter makes sense and ends with forecasts that might or might not be true.

All in all, this book sounds like a wishlist of what Dent wants to come true. But is it reliable? He states that inflation cannot happen, but what if it does. Will you lose your money? Wolves like these among the sheep make this book dangerous, which is why the book insert has the 'Read this at your Own Risk' disclaimer. Ultimately, the topic he is addressing is a very complex topic which needs time and effort to be understood. But there is a mass market for instant comprehension that Dent is trying to satisfy. All said and done, in the Great Depression, the financial sector will collapse from being 15% of the US economy to less than 5%, and people like Dent have to find ways and means to survive. What better than coming up with a mass-market bestseller to enrich oneself and continue doing so.

A very good analysis. Too long and wordy. Too much over lap of histroical info. Should have been about 1/3 shorter.

Reviewing this book is simple. It is fluid,unadulterated crap.But what would you expect from an author that credits Mitch Romney,the personified crapmeister as a "mentor" (?).
A waste of time and money.

Many Many cycles. Over all advice is accurate in my opinion. A depression is coming. But the repeat references to the same cycles is time consuming. I suggest listening while driving, or skimming the chapters for the first and last pages (I bought both CD and Text). And focus on what to do, not why it is going to happen.

It was an interesting audio book with boatloads of information but I'm not so sure I buy it. It's hard for me to buy into a persons beliefs who feels that we should spend our way out of the recession. In the Carter days we had a recession significantly worse than today. Today an average 9% unemployment rate. Carters days 15%. Today 0% interest rates which get you about 4.25% on a mortgage, Carters days 25%. And Carter didn't have a bailout which lead to a quick recession. Our liberals of today have decided to have bailout after bailout to create hyper inflation.

Also the author calls for a deflationary period but didn't forecast the effect of the Federal government printing literally trillions of dollars that we don't have and then buying government debt with the money.

The author also goes into global warming which is nothing but bunk science. Anyone knows that if they have thoroughly researched the evidence on both sides.

I smell liberal and you should never mix the words liberal and economics in the same sentence. Therefore I can not be convinced to believe the backwards logic of the left and take all information obtained from the audio book with a big grain of salt.

However, I'm not saying the audio book was a waste of my time. I think it is always important to understand what both sides of the political spectrum think. Good investing requires a thorough understanding of what makes people tick and there are enough lefties out there to sway the market one way or another based on irrational thought. And there are some good points in the book that I consider bi partisan.

Absolutely awesome yet again Harry. You must get this book and read or listen to it several times. Unbelievable that someone could predict with any degree of accuracy like Harry. Get it! Don't Delay!

I would recommend this book. I purchased the Audio good information. Read all of his books...........