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5 of 5 people found the following review helpful:
5.0 out of 5 stars
Politics made Systematic, May 30, 2004
By A Customer
Dick Stoken's newest book is his latest in a string of thought provoking efforts to develop and apply a systematic methodology to important social or economic themes-this time to the understanding of the uniquely American social organization known as the 2-party system. His previous books have dealt with popular economic topics such as market timing and long term economic cycles. This time, he carries his methodology into to the often passionate, partisan realm of presidential politics, as played out in the shifts between the two opposing political parties. The book lays out a sensible approach to understanding the unique characteristics of each party, identifies the dynamics at work both between the parties and, more importantly, among the general electorate as they vote to either maintain the status quo, or to reject the party in power, in favor of a new political direction. There is a little something for every reader here-social psychology, US political history and systems theory. Stoken's approach should hardly come as a surprise to those familiar with The University of Chicago, where he did his graduate work. The UOC is well known for its theoretical approach, and this book follows in this proud, if unconventional, tradition. Noteworthy also is Stoken's background as a financial historian and practitioner (he's a hedge fund manager, and former floor trader on Chicago's derivatives exchanges), which adds a practical dimension that traditional historians tend to overlook or (better yet) ignore-namely the market-like interplay between presidential politics and the ebb and flow between political cycles, which Stoken identifies and quantifies through an analysis of voting patterns, giving rise to "paradigm" setting presidential administrations. Stoken sees this interplay (and, yes, clash) between two opposing political tenets as essential to the evolution of US politics, and something to be encouraged and appreciated. It is this 2 party dynamic that both helps define the distinctives of both parties, and allows for quick, decisive change and transition from one "paradigm" to the next. Stoken's quantitative approach to understanding US elections and his belief that the voter is always right in the end (after all, voters ultimately determine outcomes) is a refreshing departure from doctrinaire, overly politicized methods of viewing party politics. In this vein, a warning: Stoken's perspective may not appeal to readers of all political persuasions. Diehard political ideologues may object to the (perceived) simplification of Stoken's quest for a unifying theme to tie together all the loose ends. Indeed, one comes away from the book much more inclined to view politics through the eyes of a dispassionate and objective observer, than as a passionate firebrand. Stoken seems to be suggesting that it's only by distancing yourself from this passionate enterprise that you gain an appreciation for the role that both sides play in the evolution of our "great game of politics." In the end, it's not an "either or" game-that is, one party more "correct" than the other. Instead, Stoken suggests that it takes two healthy, opposing viewpoints to create a dynamic political system. You'll find this book a refreshing departure from traditional approaches to understanding US politics and American history.
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2 of 2 people found the following review helpful:
5.0 out of 5 stars
The Presidency, Systematically Analyzed, January 26, 2006
Stoken looks in depth at the Presidency and why we elect who we elect. His main these is that there are paradigm setting presidents -- those presidents who are elected, reelected by a majority, and then ensure the election of their successor. The 9 presidents this applies to are Washington, Jefferson, Madison, Jackson, Lincoln, T. Roosevelt, Harding/Coolidge, F. Roosevelt and Reagan. These then are the "leaders" with other presidents either working to moderate the prevailing philosophy (Clinton) or "restorers" of the prevailing tradition (Kennedy/Johnson). The later restorers are less successful as the prevailing paradigm becomes less able to deal with the world (Pierce, Buchanan, Carter) until it utterly collapses. Paradigms alternate between those of the "right" and the "left."
I found the arguments Stoken makes quite persuasive, including the justification of the Harding/Coolidge administration as being quite influential as well as showing that Grant and Nixon are quite "underrated" Presidents for the impact that they had (they both just miss being paradigm setters) The leaders of the "dominant paradigm" also win close elections. Bush in 2000, Carter in 1976, Kennedy in 1960, Hayes, Garfield, Harrison in the late 19th Century, Polk, Pierce in the mid-19th century. Ties go to the dominant (not necessarily the incumbent) party.
While the discussion is largely domestic and economic focused, there is some discussion about a Bush paradigm in foreign relations possibly taking over from the earlier Wilsonian one. Stoken also discusses the role of third parties and their influence. Excellent read and really gets you thinking.
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5.0 out of 5 stars
"My policy is to have no policy." Lincoln, March 25, 2007
This inoculous looking little book was a great surprise to me.When I bought it,I thought it would be just a light hearted read of politics and ,as is the case,with most political books;would have a left or right slant. It didn't take long to realize that this was a book with a great deal of merit. It is a wonderful insight into the Politics and History of America.
I won't try to summarize the book;as it suffices to say that the author contends that the real thing that happens is what he calls Paradigms.It is these Paradigms, more so than basic party philosophy and beliefs, that influence Presidents in their greatness and affect how their actions are judged by the electorate,and hence influence elections.For this reason,sometimes Democrats act like Republicans and Republicans act like Democrats.Not on all issues nor at all times.The author analyses the results over history and shows that the Presidents who start,recognize and adapt to paradigms are successful and those who do not,or cannot, become the lesser for it.
He covers the Parties,including the 3rd parties in a fair and balanced manner and shows what they fundamentally believe and why they have their strengths and weaknesses. Try as I may;I could not find any bias on the author's part. He simply tells it as it is .
He shows that politics is an Art and definately not a Science.Paradigms are hard to predict,often not recognized until late into their course,and hard for the party to alter in the end;resulting in a change in the Administration.One also sees that the thing that gave the party the strength in the beginning is the same thing that when carried to excess becomes its downfall. Thus, it is the balance between Left and Right which ,in the final analysis,is what gives America her strength.
I have no idea of what textbooks are used in schools and universities today to teach Political Science (a term I've always considered an oxymoron);But I believe this book would be an excellent source for students to help them understand why and by whom eletions are won and lost.
Don't expect this book to be an end all in helping to predict elections.The author shows that even after elections are over ,it is still very unclear what things had what effect on the results.
If you follow politics you will find this a most unusual book and one that will give you much insight into it all.It is not an easy thing to look at over 200 years of history and politics and make sense of it all,but Stoken has done an excellent job of it here.This book is a real keeper to me and I am sure I will turn to it often in the future.
Canada's history and politics is immensely influenced by what happens in the United States,and this book explains much of what happened here.
A great book to read at the present time ,particularly with the world events taking place. Are we already into a new Paradigm,are we soon to face one;time will tell.
Remember the words of President Reagan in his inaugural address;
"The government is not the solution to our probmems...IT IS THE
PROBLEM."
...and he is considered one of the great Presidents.
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