Customer Reviews

The Great Reckoning: Protecting Yourself in the Coming Depression

5 star:		(7)
4 star:		(5)
3 star:		(0)
2 star:		(0)
1 star:		(2)

 

 

I first read this book in the early 90's and was struck by the in-depth scholarship and research the authors had invested. I felt then and still feel today that they made an insightful analysis of the forces at work in the world today as we grapple with the end of the cold war, the "new economy" and the developing clash of civilizations. I have been even more amazed over the years as the trends and forces they presented evolve along the lines forecast in the book. Especially salient are the chapters on the struggle with Islam replacing that with Marx and the effects of technological change on the scale of effective military operations.

That being said, had you followed the investment advice in the book since its pubication you would have lost a significant amount of money over the last few years. This is the only reason I rated it four stars instead of five. The investment analysis is solid, and in fact identifies facts that should be taken into account when structuring a financial portfolio, as a portion of it should be designed for worse case scenarios. The conclusions the authors arrived at were incorrect however, although it may just have been bad timing rather than incorrect prediction. As the Terrorist war heats up, (as forecast in the book), we may see an acceleration of the forces the book points out.

In sum, read this book because it will help you understand the forces going on in the world and how the real world works. Also recommended is their follow-on work, "The Sovereign Individual"

The Great Reckoning is a long but great read. It will NOT appeal to those who focus on 30 second sound bites and 120 second interviews on Good Morning America. If that's your bag, forget this book. It also requires thinking, so if you don't like to think about things in general, or dismiss history and the liberal arts in general, this book will be a total turn off.

A number of people bought this book when first published as a "trading" strategy book. I don't know where they got that idea from, perhaps they simply assumed to much. Rather, it is about probabilities and possibilites in the 1990's on the macro level with plenty of caveats.

In retrospective hindsight, the authors had some outstanding hits, and some complete misses. However, on the whole, those who dismissed this book during the tech bubble are now looking at themselves in the mirror and wondering how stupid they were to dismiss it out of hand.

If you think through what they have to say, you begin to realize that some things will take longer to work out than others. A "must" book to read if you enjoy looking beyond the daily "noise".

James Davidson and Lord Rees-Mogg have developed a truly novel way of viewing world political and economic events. Using their theory of "megapolitics", they bring numerous seemingly unrelated current events into sharper focus, and show how all are part of a broader, more basic trend. Thoroughly researched and well written, "The Great Reckoning" deals with such issues as the collapse of communism, the information revolution, the vast accumulation of both private and public debt, the impending collapse of the welfare state, the rise of violence around the globe, the signs of a coming world depression, and many other timely topics. Add to this Mr. Davidson's wonderful writing style, and what could have been a very dry analysis becomes an enthralling read. I churned through the approximately 1000 pages of this book in only two sittings! This is absolutely my favorite book of all time. If you have a keen interest in economics, politics, or even your own personal investments, I urge you to read this book. I think you will enjoy it.

This book is not politically correct, and never made the talk show circuit in the US.
I first heard of it on Canadian TV 10 years ago.

What has stayed with me for 10 years, is the notion that the time between great depressions [~60 years] is the length of living memory. That memory is to not invest speculatively with borrowed money.

It's been more than 20 years since I read the first edition which (at a time when most Americans believed that the USSR was here forever and Reagan's "Evil Empire" comments were irresponsible) accurately forecast the downfall of the Soviet Empire.

The next edition featured a new chapter, Mohammed Replaces Marx and included an extensive discussion of what we now refer to as asymmetrical warfare. The authors correctly saw Muslim fundamentalists filling the vacuum left by decline of the USSR and East European communist governments. In addition, the authors accurately identified the trends of technology as shifting the ability to manage and inflict large scale terror to small nations and stateless groups which would be difficult to track and which had no territory to defend.

Almost 20 years later it is sobering to realize that the proliferation of WMD, especially nuclear weapons, has far exceeded the pace predicted by most government officials years earlier.

Sadly most readers focused instead on the financial predictions which they saw as the most important to their self interests. Thus they were unprepared for either the fall of the Soviet empire or the continued rise of Muslim fundamentalist based terror, either state sponsored as in the cases of Iran, Iraq and others or that sponsored by leaders such as Bin Laden. Too many Americans still fail to realize that we are in a state of war and have never learned or forgotten the lessons of the early days of WWII when action instead of "Peace In Our Time" appeasement, might have prevented the slaughter to tens of millions of people.

Predicting the future is always a dangerous exercise. It is an interesting exercise to pull the book off the shelf years later and thumb through the early editions. As one author noted, the futurists and economists are always wrong and the science fiction writers usually right. Certainly recent history has shown that the author's predictions are not 100% right, but they understand some of the most important forces shaping the world of tomorrow. As a result the value of their thinking puts them at the top of the list.

It is interesting to note that while most books sell on the used market for a fraction of their original cost, the single copy available through Amazon's resellers is listed at 400%+ of the cost new.

UPDATE - When I wrote the review in 2006 I was a little troubled in that the second of their transforming predictions had not occurred, there was no great deflation. If only I had waited another 24 months.

Here we sit in 2011 with home prices back to their levels of 20 years ago. Perhaps more importantly, while we dance on the grave of bin Laden, far more important and dangerous events are taking place that are, in effect, the second wave of the transformation of power from Africa to the Chinese border. In these post Arab Spring, giddy days the press and leadership avoids any discussion of the geopolitical changes that are likely to bring cataclysmic war to the middle east and perhaps adjacent regions within a few years.

What the authors would probably have called a major evolution is occurring and and it is not at all good for western democracies and very likely fatal for Israel.

Who would have expected that the Internet and Telecom bubbles would delay the 'great reckoning?' If this book is correct, we have only a short time to get our financial houses in order. This is a long read and yet a good one.

This is for those who wish to conserve and preserve what they have. Recommendations not to eat in certain restaurants and the like....interesting in light of the food poisonings of late.

Our national and international money woes. Economists, historians, business professional and the clergy would benefit from this book. The recommendations were too soon, so they sounded a little early and the 'cry wolf' scenario seems to creep in. Well, look at where we are today. We can rebound, if it is the right time.

All those who, in 1999 and 2000, rated this book 1-star should sit down and re-read this greatly informative and prescient book! Because its "timing" was off by a decade does not render this book useless, though it may indeed have cost investors lost profits. For this reason only do I give it 4-stars. HIGHLY recommended read!

Absolutely prescient...

Although written in the late eighties, it rings a resounding bell today.

In my humble opinion, it's a window on the past, present, and future - a condensation of controversial, yet seminal truths.

It is a must read for any person with an inquiring mind. It is required mental luggage.

Read it!

With the sickening drop in the stock market the past September and October 2008 impelled me to reread this book. The prediction of the market crash in the 1990's appears to be off by a decade. Will the markets stabilize with the concerted help of world governments or will the market, and Western civilization, continue its death plunge to a watery grave? The authors give some good advice, but as always, take with a grain of salt.

I first met James in 1993 when he was giving a lecture at Michigan State University. I was well acquainted with him through his newsletter and economic theories that were more than just that. I have the utmost respect for him and have earnestly recommended THIS book to friends who want to build as solid a financial future as they can.

I purchased and studied this book the year it came out - it is foundational wisdom. Imagine...what would you do on the day that note for our trillion dollar deficit comes due? The day the US goes up for grabs? It is not unfathonable. Why not work on a plan for protecting your wealth that CAN span through the ages?

The Great Reckoning dispells any myths. It is strong medicine for those who believe the gravy train will not end and a plan of action for those who know it is already ending. It helps you to better plan your future, your investments and grow your wealth. I only have RAVES to give for this book - and have referred it to any THINKING friend/associate who wants to better prepare themselves, their family and their finances for the future.

Companion books - it took me YEARS to find Blood In The Streets (it was out of print), written by James and Lord Rees Mogg. Buy it! Also Harry Figgie's Bankruptcy 1995 is a must read. You will be surprised by how many of the steps that OTHER countries have taken to prevent capital flight have already been taken by the US. An eye opener.

And...round it off with The Sovereign Individual. It actually takes one tenet from The Great Reckoning and expands upon it a little more. It is not the tome, like the prior 2. However if you are foreign to the idea of you as your own country, well, explore it in that book.