Greenspan's Taming of the Wave: Or a Golden Age Revisited [Hardcover]

Francois-Xavier Chevallier (Author)

Book Description

Publication Date: January 6, 2001 | ISBN-10: 0312238592 | ISBN-13: 978-0312238599

During Alan Greenspan's tenure at the US Federal Reserve Board, the US economy has consistently outperformed expectations. Greenspan has not been panicked by recessionary pressures and has held faith in the view that, despite short-term setbacks, the world economy is locked into a steady long-term upward cycle and is about to enter another "Golden Age" comparable to that of the late 19th century. The world's rapid recovery from the 1998 Asian crisis supports this theory almost conclusively and has drawn considerable interest from the world's financial and business community. This unique book explains the theory, presents its historical context, shows how Greenspan has harnessed it, and predicts how the "Golden Age" might develop.

Editorial Reviews

From Publishers Weekly

In 1990, with the Dow Industrial Average under 3,000, French portfolio manager Chevallier gave a famous interview in Paris Match in which he predicted "we are on the eve of a world stock market crash of world proportions, much worse than the previous one." Instead, the U.S. stock market enjoyed its best decade ever, with the Dow Industrials rising almost uninterruptedly to near 12,000. Unabashed, Chevallier argues that the world did indeed go through a Great Depression in the 1990s, but U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan's economic management disguised the pain for Americans. Those who can accept this may also believe the author's current prediction that we are on the eve of a 30-year period of great prosperity that will rival the golden ages of 1789-1814, 1847-1866, 1896-1920 and 1940-1980. The economic theory underlying these claims is that of the Russian economist Nikolai Kondratiev, who, in the 1920s and '30s, traced 40-to-60-year cycles in wholesale prices, interest rates, wages and production back to 1790. Chevallier updates Kondratiev's work and refines it by postulating three out-of-phase cycles of growth, rising prices and debt. The original French title of this work, Le Bonheur ?conomique (Economical Happiness), is more descriptive of the contents, and positions it as an answer to Viviane Forrester's popular 1996 book, L'Horreur ?conomique (Economical Horror). (Jan. 29) Forecast: Breezy and dramatic (as demonstrated by the potent cover photo of a tsunami inundating Wall Street), this book also conveys an optimistic message that may get some media play and compel sophisticated stock market watchers to seek it out.
Copyright 2000 Reed Business Information, Inc.

From the Publisher

Francois-Xavier Chevallier has 25 years experience in portfolio management. A former student of Laffer, Miller, Friedman, Fama and Black, he has worked in the French bond market and the US & Japanese Equity markets. He was until recently Chief Investment Strategist at BNP Paribas and is now Head of Equity Strategy at CIC-EIFB in Paris. --This text refers to the Paperback edition.

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Product Details

• Hardcover: 205 pages
• Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan (January 6, 2001)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0312238592
• ISBN-13: 978-0312238599
• Product Dimensions: 9.5 x 6.3 x 0.8 inches
• Shipping Weight: 1.1 pounds
• Average Customer Review: 4.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (1 customer review)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #6,353,138 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

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Most Helpful Customer Reviews

0 of 1 people found the following review helpful:

4.0 out of 5 stars Truly Marvellous, February 3, 2001

By 

Chandra Sekhar (ICFAI, Hyderabad, India) - See all my reviews

This review is from: Greenspan's Taming of the Wave: Or a Golden Age Revisited (Hardcover)

Francois-Xavier Chevallier's work is truly exceptional. The book has given the right momentum to the thought of economic phenomena proceeding by alternative phases of expansion and comparison. The book has certainly taken me to the Golden Age. The Marvellous clock depicted in the book has made me think about the next up wave that is round the corner as suggested by the book. If the Central Bankers would have thought in the lines of Fed's Chairman and emphasized on the long wave phenomena then they would have been able to avert the recessionary period the world is witnessing now. This book is definitely worth having in the Library. It would have scored a top star rating if the author had explained how Greenspan read the early signals and pulled out the US from the down wave. However, the author requires aprreciation for his work in putting forward the Long Wave Theory through this book with statistical validation. The best part of the book is how the Kondrateiff Cycle is examined and compared with the present scenarios.