Growth Triumphant: The Twenty-first Century in Historical Perspective (Economics, Cognition, and Society) [Paperback]

Richard A. Easterlin (Author)

Book Description

ISBN-10: 0472085530 | ISBN-13: 978-0472085538 | Publication Date: December 1, 1998

Taking a longer view than most literature on economic development, Richard A. Easterlin stresses the enormous contrast between the collective experience of the last half century in both developed and developing countries and what has gone before. An economic historian and demographer, the author writes in the tradition of the "new economic history," drawing on economic theory and quantitative evidence to interpret the historical experience of economic theory and population growth. He reaches beyond the usual disciplinary limits to draw, as appropriate, on sociology, political science, psychology, anthropology, and the history of science. The book will be of interest not only to social scientists but to all readers concerned with where we have been and where we are going.

". . . Easterlin is both an economic historian and a demographer, and it is the combination of these two disciplines and the fine balance between theory and experience that make this well-written, refreshingly optimistic book excellent reading." --Population and Development Review

"In this masterful synthesis, Richard Easterlin draws on the disciplines of economic history, demography, sociology, political science, psychology, and the history of science to present an integrated explation of the origins of modern economic growth and of the mortality revolution. . . . His book should be easily accessible to non-specialists and will give them a sense of why economic history can inform our understanding of the future." --Dora L. Costa, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, EH.Net and H-Net

"Growth Triumphant is, simply, a fascinating book. Easterlin has woven together a history of economic growth, economic development, human mortality and morbidity, the connections each has with the others, and the implications of this nexus of forces on the future. . . . This book deserves a wide audience." --Choice

"In what must surely be the most fair-minded, well-balanced, and scrupulously reasoned and researched book on the sensational subjects implied in its title--the Industrial Revolution, the mortality and fertility revolutions, and the prospects for future happiness for the human race--Professor Easterlin has set in place the capstone of his research career." --Journal of Economic History

Richard A. Easterlin is Professor of Economics, University of Southern California.

Product Details

• Paperback: 216 pages
• Publisher: University of Michigan Press (December 1, 1998)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0472085530
• ISBN-13: 978-0472085538
• Product Dimensions: 9 x 5.9 x 0.7 inches
• Shipping Weight: 12.6 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)
• Average Customer Review: 3.5 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (2 customer reviews)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #946,747 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

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6 of 6 people found the following review helpful:

4.0 out of 5 stars Good overview of modern global economic development, August 23, 1998

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[e-mail] (Madison, Wisconsin) - See all my reviews

This review is from: Growth Triumphant: The Twenty-first Century in Historical Perspective (Economics, Cognition, and Society) (Hardcover)

The sweep of human history and it's follow-through to the mid-21st Century are the subject of this remarkably short (154 pages excluding reference material) yet lucid volume. Easterlin abstracts the major trends in economic history, focussing on "the epoch of modern economic growth" and it's relationship with human population dynamics.

Analyzing these trends into a series of interrelated technological, organizational, and behavioral factors, he constructs a framework for projecting his view of the human condition over the next 50 years: "The future, then, to which the epoch of modern economic growth is leading is one of never ending economic growth, a world in which ever growing abundance is matched by ever rising aspirations, a world in which cultural differences are leveled in the constant race to achieve the good life of material plenty" (p. 153).

Lest critics be too hasty to reject this as so much cheerleading for a conventional Western world view, let them note that the author also questions whether this future will increase human happiness - he concludes that "in the end, the triumph of economic growth is not a triumph of humanity over material wants; rather, it is a triumph of material wants over humanity." (p. 154)

The major strength of this work is that it presents a concise, non-technical understanding of economic and social development as that understanding has been gained through the work of major theorists in the field of economic demography, such as Kuznets, Solow, Rostow, and Easterlin himself. Yet these theories are not accepted uncritically: the author places each in contex and considers several alternatives, then presents comparative and historical data to resolve the theoretical questions in simple intuitive terms.

In this manner he quickly covers the long-contested grounds of international relations, the growth of national economies and supporting social institutions, health and population growth, and the relationship between material progress and happiness. Drawing conclusions from the resolution of one theoretical problem with emipircal evidence, he proceeds to the next in a cumulative sequence that culminates in a compelling, logically integrated argument to support his view of the future.

This sequential construction is especially apparent in his explanation of how the rise of institutions conducive to techical innovation together with the accumulation of wealth preceded the wide spread application of health technology and subsequent "mortality revoultion", which cut mortality rates in half in just over a century. Following from the decline in mortality, he examines a model of decisions regarding family size and shows how the "fertility transition" follows as a logical consequence of the mortality revolution. He makes a solid case to support the expectation of continued economic growth with slowing population growth, and in the process introduces the reader to the major acievements of economic, demographic, and sociological studies of international development in a coherent analytic framework.

The weakness of this work lies in the necessarily high level of abstraction required to concisely analyze modern economic history. The prose is "high and dry", requiring frequent infusions of coffee for the reader to make much headway before losing consciousness. While he has created a skeletal outline of history, it is not fleshed out with the jucy details of the dramatic conflict and wrenching socio-cultural change that has characterized the rapid transition from the second to the third economic epoch. It is precisely in this chaotic turbulence following the various revolutionary changes that give rise to the more vocal criticisms of rapid growth, global economic convergence, and unlimited material progress.

Easterlin puts aside the whole literature comprising the "postmodern" critique of society in order to clearly delineate the modern. While this lets him project the broad outlines of what will follow for the next two generations, it may lead the reader to believe that further material progress is unproblematic. Despite a brief discussion of the potential barriers to further global expansion of modern economic growth, which he sees as rooted primarily in international power conflicts, and despite his conclusion that happiness will not ultimately be achieved through material progress, he makes a case for the inevitability of further material growth without questioning its desireability -- that, we suppose, is left as an exercise for the reader.

1 of 1 people found the following review helpful:

3.0 out of 5 stars Environmental Constraints Not Included, July 10, 2010

By 

Karen Keim (Harvard University) - See all my reviews
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This review is from: Growth Triumphant: The Twenty-first Century in Historical Perspective (Economics, Cognition, and Society) (Paperback)

Growth Triumphant is first rate social science for the 20th Century. Environmental constraints that have moved us into the environmental paradigm at this point in human development [development not necessarily being a linear process.]are forming the parameters within which policy decisions are being made. The 21st Century analysis of the next fifty years, a major theme of Easterlin, is not consistant with what we know the environmental constraints will be. I view Easterlin's book as development historigraphy of what views emerged in the late 20th C before the environmental component was incorporated into everything we plan, and the constrasts that emerged.