Customer Reviews

Half Gone

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These words concluded an article on global warming by Melanie Phillips, columnist on the London Daily Mail, published on 13 January 2006.

Ms Phillips is not alone in suffering from a delusional state on this issue, as you learn from this book.

Geologist Jeremy Leggett recounts that Colin Campbell and Chris Skrebowski - both with oil industry backgrounds - organised a seminar in July 2004 to warn members of the UK Parliament about the coming depletion of oil. In 2004 there were 659 MPs in the House of Commons - very roughly equivalent to the US House of representatives - of whom a mere three attended.

In Part One he details the run-up to what he calls "the topping point". Like other writers on this issue, he argues that it lies somewhere between 2005 and 2015.

He is pessimistic about the discovery of new oil fields - the peak year for oil discovery was, he claims, 1965 - and he is also pessimistic about what he calls "unconventional" oil, such as shale and tar sands.

Like other writers he believes they will demand at least as much energy in recovery as they will offer.

The second part of the book is a detailed examination of global warming. He cites the view of Sir David King, the UK government's Chief Scientific Adviser, that global warming is a greater threat than any weapons of mass destruction.

He poses the question: how much warming, how much danger? and forecasts that, at current rates, CO2 concentrations will reach 700 parts per million, as opposed to the 300 ppm in the 400,000 years up to the beginning of the last century.

By this scenario global temperatures are set to rise by the so-called "hockey stick" curve.

He again quotes Sir David King as believing that 550 ppm is way above the danger threshold.

The author then goes on to list the "sleeping giants" which will be triggered by these rising temperatures: methane-hydrate destabilization - launching billions of tons of carbon into the atmosphere - the shut-down of the Gulf Stream; the melting of the Greenland ice cap, and other dire news.

The catalogue is exhaustive (and depressing!) before then going on to examine "How we got into this mess", and he concludes that, after 1990, there was no excuse for inaction.

Finally, in "What can we do about it?" we get the do's and don'ts.

First he argues we CAN get plentiful renewable energy - that's the good news, but the bad news is one of time: we've left it too late!

Among the guilty, who seemed as if they knew what was happening, was George Bush's good buddy from Downing Street. The man who outlined what needed to be done in 2003; the man who seemed to realise that nuclear power wasn't an option.

Jeremy Leggett was at the 2003 meeting when Blair launched the results of the last UK energy review.

He is not impressed with the follow-up, or lack of it!

Second, he warns against the trap of going for the nuclear option, which he dismisses comprehensively.

Like other, he wishes to see "selfless collective thinking" from the international community. You will be unsurprised by his pessimism on this score.

"The most probably outcome," he writes, "is that the world will drift on in overall collective denial."

But he ends by reminding us of the case of Woking, in Surrey England. It cut its carbon emissions by 77 per cent!

There will need to be a lot of Wokings before too long, if we are to pull through.

Johan Hari, columnist for the London paper The Independent, concluded a typically trenchant piece on climate change by asking the $64,000 question:

"What we choose to do about these scientific warnings will answer a fundamental question about human beings.

"Are we a rational species, capable of understanding the damage we are doing and acting in our own self-defence - or are we addled hedonists, too high on our fumes to see the truth?"

If you read one book this year on what James Lovelock has called the world's "morbid fever", try this one. It is truly comprehensive.

I agree with the other reviewer that this book is better in some sections than others. That said, however, it is an important book. It opened my eyes to the way in which 'remaining reserves' have been subject to gross over-estimation, and also to a lot of the politics behind big oil. Its other virtue is that it is not apocalyptic or overly polemical; it has an important point to make and it makes it quite soberly.

Look at what is happening in the world oil markets now; this book saw this coming some years back.

This is a fantastic look at oil peaks and future energy supplies. As typical for Leggett, it is written very clearly and is completely engaging. It has the potential to change the way you view your dependence on oil and on how you live in the world. Most books of this nature tend to leave you feeling a little hopeless and depressed, but I'm delighted to say this isn't one of them. Jeremy Leggett manages to give you all the information you could need in an entertaining and informative way and leaves you feeling invigorated to go out there and make a difference. If you like this I highly recommend his other book, Carbon War, about the Kyoto agreement.

Feel free to check out my blog which can be found on my profile page.

Sums up the current crisis in a excellent and lucid fashion (five stars), but the second part of the book - 'what to do about it' appears to suffer from substantial bias, oversimplification and inaccuracy to put it politely. Which is odd considering the author runs an alternative energy company - or maybe not.

I have been studying the energy depletion for some time and didn't feel that this book added anything to what I have already read. I also thought that it was not as comprensive and complete as other books.