Customer Reviews

Handicapping Magic

5 star:		(14)
4 star:		(5)
3 star:		(5)
2 star:		(1)
1 star:		(3)

 

 

When I ordered Handicapping Magic, I looked forward to its arrival in the mail with great anticipation. When I finally received it, I put all my other reading aside and gave it my undivided attention. The book is an easy read, it is attractively printed, and Mr. Pizzolla's enthusiasm is infectious. I looked forward to my next visit to the track, and expected major improvements in my selections and wagering.

Handicapping Magic shows you how to calculate three simple numbers: the Fulcrum Pace, the Pizzolla Balanced Speed Rating (PBS), and the Projected Power Fraction (PPF). Most of the book's 432 pages explain how to apply these three numbers to one's handicapping.

I'm not a professional handicapper, and I can only visit the track on weekends. After much study and practice, I win 90 cents for every dollar I bet. I would like to do better, but considering that I am only a weekend player I am willing to tolerate the rate of return. I am always looking for ways to wipe out my deficit and at least break even. Swayed by the glowing reviews of Handicapping Magic and the raves about its readability, I thought I would give it a try. Alas, in actual practice, the application of these numbers in my handicapping led to a sharp decrease in my return on investment. When I applied Mr. Pizzolla's techniques at the track, my win percentage dropped to 63 cents won for each dollar bet.

The numbers are simply too unreliable. After using Mr. Pizzolla's method exclusively for almost three months, I feel that my results would have been just as good had I pinned the track program to the wall and made my selections throwing darts. If Mr. Pizzolla's ratings were reliable, I would expect that the horses I selected would finish close to the front at least most of the time (which is what happens when I apply the numbers found in Tom Brohamer's "Modern Pace Handicapping" - the best horses according to Brohamer's numbers usually finish fourth or better). But there seems to be no rhyme or reason to the results. In my experience, horses with the best PPF and PBS numbers finished last far more often than first. After a while I decided not to risk any more money and handicapped race cards without placing any bets. Maybe I was putting too much pressure on myself at the track, and would do better with a few dry runs at home. It didn't work. Whether it was for real at the track or for practice at home, the results were the same. More than once I bet exactas on the horses with the best PPF and PBS numbers, only to see them finish on the wrong end of the field, running last and next to last. Horses I would have otherwise bet in exotics, but eliminated because of the Handicapping Magic numbers, finished in the money.

My results were so poor that I thought I might be computing the numbers incorrectly. I purchased the Handicapping Magician software recommended in the book, and confirmed that my computations were accurate. (By the way, when I returned the software, my credit card account was promptly credited. Mr. Pizzolla and his associates stand by their products.)

The Fulcrum Pace, Pizzolla Balanced Speed Rating, and the Projected Power Fractions did not help me in my selections and wagering. For example, in his chapter on Fulcrum Pace, Mr. Pizzolla states, "...if you find that after setting a conservative Fulcrum Pace, that no other horse in the race can compete successfully against that pace, the Fulcrum horse is one of the safest and most consistent win bets in all of racing" (page 82). Though this situation did not arise frequently, it did happen a few of times, and not once did it result in a successful wager.

Let me give you a frustrating example of a typical Handicapping Magic experience. On Sunday, November 24, 2002 at Aqueduct, Race 5, I narrowed the field down to three horses: Panner, Baseball and Honorifico. However, in a nine horse field, Honorifico had the worst Pace Balanced Speed Rating and the next to worst Projected Power Fraction. Against my better judgment, I replaced Honorifico with Welcome Matt (whose PBS and PPF were among the best in this race; he was also the Fulcrum Pace horse) and boxed him in an exacta with Baseball and Panner. Panner finished first and Honorifico finished second. The exacta paid ($$$). Needless to say, this was the last time I used Handicapping Magic.

The book is not completely without value. Leaving the Fulcrum Pace, PBS and PPF aside (which means leaving aside most of the book, unfortunately), some of what Mr. Pizzolla teaches is sensible. The Form Cycle Window is a useful method for picking pace lines, even though it is tedious and time consuming. Chapter 8 is a helpful explanation of pace handicapping concepts.

It was with great disappointment that I put "Handicapping Magic" aside. I could not add Michael Pizzolla to my list of authors who have improved my handicapping. I recommend instead the writings of James Quinn, Tom Brohamer and Dick Mitchell.

I was informed of this book in a on-line newsletter about horse racing, and the authors were describing the successes they were having with some of Michael's methods. I am a seasoned handicapper, and the last thing I thought I needed was another handicapping book, but I was intrigued. After reading the book, I found the rating techniques described simple to anyone who has handicapping experience and is serious about the game (for the novice, it is very helpful to be good with numbers and calculations).

The techniques also seem to be quite effective. I usually handicap multiple tracks at an simulcast facility, looking for good bets (i.e. longer-priced horses that have a chance to win). The first 2 days I tried Michael's methods, I was pointed to a total of 4 longshot winners that I would have otherwise passed over using my current handicapping methods. Not bad....

Michael details his background in the book to some extent, and the reader will realize that he did not come up with these techniques overnight - years of experience and refinement have brought him to the methods he describes. Any serious bettor and student of the game can appreciate the effort. If anything, the techniques described in the book will help you find overlooked horses, as the methods seem to be very good at quickly ferreting out 'hidden ability' - ability not apparent from looking at the past performances in the public's generalized way. If the methods and rankings point to the logical favorites, pass the race. Otherwise, be prepared to play!

This book is an excellent supplement to anyone's current method of handicapping, and gave me more tools to add to my 'handicapping toolbox.' Like any handicapping method, it is desirable to show proven success over the long haul, but Michael states his case well and I am off to a flying start with the techniques - the book has already paid for itself several times over. Any book that can help someone make profits and provide enjoyment is worth its cost and deserves 5 stars.

This book is 432 pages long yet only presents two basic formulas that are supposed to be used in the handicapping process. The real key to the method is deciding which past performance line to use for a given horse. The author presents rules which are to be used when you can skip a given past performance line and use the next line down. The problem is that these rules can be applied to so many lines that it's easy to look at the outcome of a race and say, "I would have had that if only I went down one more line."

It's also interesting to note that the company that published the book is the same company that he uses for all the examples in the book and is constantly remarking how great their service is. Mr Pizzolla will also sell you a great software package to do the calculations for you. How nice. But there's one thing he doesn't mention. The software only uses the most recent past performance line in the calculations and it is up to the user to manually select a different line. This is the most difficult part of his whole theory and it's not even a part of the software he's trying to sell. The software only does the calculations which are so simple anyone can do them in their head. I can't imagine what purpose the software is supposed to serve except to make the company he is attached to more money. Lucky for me they offer a 30 day money back guarantee on the software and happily refunded my money when asked.

I have personally been handicapping horses for 15 years and did find myself agreeing with many of the principles of pace that the author discusses. But his conclusions were far too simplistic to ever produce a long term profit. At least this is what I found in the trial runs I did using his method.

I would stongly suggest anyone thinking about using this method to do several weeks of trial runs on paper before risking any money.

Mr. Pizzolla repeatedly suggests that for anyone to succeed at his method they must practice. Perhaps with enough practice someone out their will find a way to make a long term profit using this method. If anyone succeeds it would indeed be Magic!

I have read well over 20 books on handicapping, plus programs and this one actually can be understood and makes sense. Needless to say is that these tools that are presented in the book really work and I have made money with it on B C day without finishing the book !! I use it with my handicapping and it is easier to make decisions for betting. There are no stories to make the book fatter, just good stuff that works. Pizzolla's concepts are brilliant because I use the same concept only his are more effective than mine. After this book you won't need to buy any others. His ideas are used to SUPPLEMENT your handicapping but maybe used as a stand alone method. I bought this book because I have been to his seminars and they are honest and informative. You will agree that this is the best book you have ever read because this information will make you a winner !!!

The software is easy to use and the book does not teach any new principles of pace handicapping. The two simple pace rating is as good as any pace rating which one can create. The problem with the software is that it picks the last paceline of the horse for dirt races, and on turf races, it selects all the turf pacelines for the horse. This leaves the user with the task of proper contender and paceline selection. The author provides guidelines to contender and paceline selection; however the user will still need to make analysis of the race in order to succeed, if one follows blinded to the computer output, one will be greatly disappointed. It's not a black box, judgment and thinking is required to interpret the numbers. The section on money management is a little vague, the author shows in his book that he makes most of his money in exactas and trifectas betting rather than straight win bets. Unless, one has a big bankroll for exotic betting, be ready to go through a roller coaster ride in exotic betting.

One of the half dozen best (meaning most valuable in terms of actually winning money at the track) handicapping books I've read in over 30 years in the game. The best, and simplest, method for rating pace I've seen. The method of play suggested by Mr. Pizzolla is bent toward the production of longshot winners. I began playing the method within a few days of reading the book. I cashed tickets on longshots (like Statesville, at better than 19.00 to one, in the 9th at Woodbine on September 14, 2001) I'd not have given a second thought to before. You will have to accept some contrary ideas and absorb some detailed practice. It is worth the time and effort.

Michael Pizzolla, Handicapping Magic (ITS Press, 2000)

It's impossible to write a review of a handicapping book just after reading it, really, and comment on what the mechanics of the writing are all about. I'll be back in a year or so to cogitate on all that and whether it works or not. Or you can take a look at other reviews, which look like, well, reviews of almost every other handicapping book out there. Works for some folks. Not for others. We shall see.

From the standpoint of logic, clarity, theory, and understanding, though, Handicapping Magic is simply the holy grail of handicapping books. I've probably read two hundred books on handicapping in the past ten years, ranging from the sublime (Brohamer, Quinn, etc.) to the ridiculous (any book whose handicapping method is based on "smart money", etc.), and despite having read all those and more, there were still some great unanswered questions about handicapping. I've asked them, at the risk of sounding like a rank beginner, on for a far and wide over the course of those ten years, to weekend warriors and professional handicappers alike, to those who author handicapping books and those who run handicapping websites, to the guys in thousand-dollar suits in the clubhouse and the guys in tattered shorts on the apron. Ask a hundred people you get a hundred answers, at least ninety-five of which will be "I don't know" in some dialect of horse. They're simple questions, too, or seem so. "How can you tell if a horse is in good form?" "What IS good form?" "How can you tell where a horse is in his form cycle?" "How do you tell what horse in a race is most likely to be on the lead?" "If a horse isn't on the lead, what are the chances he'll still manage to run well?" (I've gotten many, many answers to that last one, and I still wonder if some of the people who expounded on that one for ten minutes managed to cash tickets on the 2002 Blue Grass Stakes, where perennial frontrunner Millennium Wind, who'd never managed to press a pace in his life, finished second after not once getting his nose in front. I suspect I know the answer.) It is the stuff pace handicapping is made of, and no one from Lucky Jim, the other guy who chainsmokes his tickets at Thistledown, to Tom Brohamer, author of Modern Pace Handicapping, has ever managed to set me straight on any of those questions.

Along comes Michael Pizzolla. And he makes the same basic assumptions most racing writers do, I think-that if you're reading a handicapping book for the "advanced" set, you probably already know those answers. But Pizzolla doesn't make the mistake of then assuming that you can skate by those questions and their all-too-elusive answers to get to the meat of the matter; he actually gives you the answers. I'd have been a convert for life halfway through chapter two on Pizzolla's easy-to-follow description of whether a horse is in form and capable of competing in today's race alone.

Without testing the actual methods Pizzolla gives us in the book, which is of course the acid test of any handicapping manual, the test of a handicapping book for me is the same as the test for a book of poetry: did I find something in it I can steal, and is the stuff around the stealable material at least readable? In both cases Handicapping Magic gets the loudest "YES!" I've managed since Composer, Jambalaya Jazz, and Knockadoon kicked back twenty-four grand in a minor stakes race at Keeneland in April 1997 on a two-dollar ticket. (And that was the simplest system ever, which I'll give you free: they were the only three also-rans in Triple Crown races competing in the race. No-thought trifecta box. Glory be and alli-lujah.)

A number of other reviewers have called this the best book on handicapping they've read, hands down. I'm not sure I'd go that far, but it is without doubt on a par with Modern Pace Handicapping, Beyer on Speed, William Quirin's High-Tech Handicapping in the Information Age, Mark Cramer's The Odds on Your Side, Ziemba and Hausch's Inefficiencies in Racetrack Betting Markets, and other such rarefied tomes. Even if you end up not pulling a profit out of the methods listed herein, there is a great deal to be learned, and while it's probably not the best first book one could buy on handicapping, anyone who's read one of the fine primers on the sport to be found (Ainslie's books, Davidowitz' Betting Thoroughbreds, or Chuck Badone's painfully-titled but brilliant Winning Horseracing Handicapping) shouldn't be too far underwater with this. **** ½

Why do you lose at the track?? Ever thought about it..Is it the inside information you heard and played and it lost?? Want to know the REAL inside information on winning at ANY TRACK?? Are you looking the secret to winning..well let's start off by saying there is NO INSIDE SECRETS to winning at the track!! Get this book and I assure you that it will put you on the right track and you will NEVER LOOK back ever again!! This one is going to unlock what you have been looking for!! Mr. Pizzolla takes you by the hand and walks you thru every step that he does to WIN. Remember if you work with a WINNER..YOU WILL BE A WINNER with this book. Really this book should be RATED A STRONG 10 +!! I have purchased almost all the big name author books and I would give them ALL UP for this one!! You will feel the same after reading this one and doing it exactly like Mr. Pizzolla tells you..His book is very easy reading with a LOT of examples of real races with the pp's and charts and so on.. If you play the races then don't let Handicapping Magic pass you by. Bill Zettler St. Louis, Mo b_zettler@yahoo.com

While not a beginners text by any means, this work can be helpful to both beginners and aspiring advanced players alike. There are already many basic works on handicapping. Pizzolla's work complements them and presents both a fundamental and workable method for betting the horses, which is excellent in it's clarity and succinctness. The basic ideas are to rank the horses and then rank how the public will bet them. Once that is done possible opportunities may be evaluated. It's a great system explained.

I used to pass turf races with large fields or else take stabs at longshots who looked promising because many turf races, both in California and back east, can yield large payoffs. Pizzola's method is simplistic and doesn't always work, but I've hit enough well paying trifectas to make his method the only one I use. I recently hit a 1500 tri at Saratoga simply by choosing the horses with the best closing fraction chosen from all their races. I boxed four horses and they came 1-2-3-4. Anyway, I've been using his method for several months now, and while it certainly doesn't work all the time, it points out a lot of winners and longshots who get in the money.