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Heads Up: How to Anticipate Business Surprises and Seize Opportunities First

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Business "surprises" occur with an alarming frequency. It is an understatement to say they exact a considerable toll on the organization.

According to Kenneth G. McGee, even the worst catastrophes rarely happen without warning. The author is a group vice president and research fellow at Gartner, Inc., a consultancy that specializes in information technology. His book, Heads Up, is about predicting the present.

Managers need to understand what is happening now and how these current events will impact future success. This involves extracting raw empirical information, analyzing it and determining its meaning and implications.

So what is new, you ask? McGee answers managers do not need all the data to understand the present. Only enough to answer the question, "Where are we right now in meeting our corporate goals?"

To an effective executive, this current information always reveals opportunities to improve results. There is a tendency to confuse real-time information with real-time response. In the perfect situation, the following processes happen in the background between the time when an event happens and that event's impact is felt.

1. Information related to the event is monitored.
2. A change in the information is captured.
3. The information is analyzed.
4. The information is reported.
5. A response is initiated.

No manager can afford to monitor all his information sources. To determine which sources to monitor, information should be filtered using the following Identification Model:

1. List goals for the planning period.
2. Prioritize them.
3. Evaluate them.
4. List causal events.
5. Prioritize the causal events.
6. Evaluate whether the real-time information will enable the executive to respond effectively.

Each candidate generated by the Identification Model is subjected to the Justification Model:

1. Does the goal the information further the corporate vision and mission?
2. Does the goal meet current corporate priorities?
3. Is the information material to the goal?
4. What is the goal's corporate impact?

McGee's book goes beyond the usual real-time hype. It will help executives anticipate events and changes. The result: potential disasters will be transformed into opportunities.

Most of what I read about real-time business falls squarely in the internet era of overblown hype and ridiculous propositions. This book, along with a few stories I've seen in The Economist, offers realistic perspectives on what real-time enterprise really is and how it can realistically help.

In short, the author says that its not about reacting faster per se, but about getting information in real time so you know when to react.

Also in the books favor are two items: 1) lots of case studies of both failure and success due to real-time information or its lack, 2) models/methodologies that one can actually see using in a business context unlike what you so often see. The models are useful to the average manager not just to the CEO or the chairman of the board.

So all in all a very useful and helpful book for understanding the value of real-time information

What I was most impressed with about this book is that the author doesn't just preach the glories of real-time. He actually talks about what information shouldn't be real-time. In fact he says that only 5% of corporate information should be real time.

Just for that its worth reading.

One of the foundational attributes of most martial arts is the idea of avoiding the attack of the opponent. Practitioners of Judo, Kung Fu, Tai Chi and a host of other self defense disciplines spend more time avoiding the attacker's punches and kicks than developing their own offensive assault. The simple idea is that you can't be hurt by a punch that you see coming and can avoid. The same concept holds true for business and in his book "Heads Up" author Kenneth McGee says business calamities such as the recent housing collapse, the Internet implosion and S&L crisis usually give observable warning signs. Soundview likes this book because McGee doesn't offer some oversimplified silly solution to predict the future, but offers a helpful model to predict the present. He believes that a good understanding of what is occurring right at this moment, can equip the individual and organization with information that enables them to scenario plan for the future. Mapping out where those potential problems may develop, is a step toward avoiding them altogether.

Written by the group vice-president of Gartner, Inc., a research and advisory firm, Heads Up: How To Anticipae Business Surprises And Seize Opportunities First is a no-nonsense advice guide to business managers everywhere. Emphasizing that the key is being keenly aware of what is going on in the present day, and that business disasters seldom come without any kind of warning, Heads Up walks the reader through a practical methodology to paying attention of the circumstances around oneself and navigating the choppy and changeable seas of opportunity, risk, and surprise, suspected, or surmounted events. Heads Up is a highly recommended and practical guide to raising entrepreneurial and corporate awareness.