Customer Reviews

High Expectations & False Dreams: One Hundred Years of Stock Market History Applied to Retirement Planning

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Jim Otar first came to my attention when I read his article explaining variable annuities with guaranteed minimum withdrawal benefits in the Advisor's Edge Report.

It so impressed me with its cogency, and clarity that I wanted to read more of this author's thinking. So I bought his book, "High Expectations & False Dreams".

I read it completely on the day it arrived, and was only slightly disappointed.

The same logic I saw in his article pervades Mr. Otar's book. In it he applies such investment concepts as asset allocation, dollar-cost averaging, and cyclical investing to one hundred years of stock market history.

A lot of mathematical analysis went into the results, but he graphs them all to produce an easy read.

I was most impressed with his "Fingerprinting" of mutual funds to discover which funds to keep (or buy), and which to drop (or ignore). He explains this technique in such a way that it is easily reproduced by anyone familiar with spreadsheets. An important benefit, as you will want to keep tracking those you buy, so you know when to drop them.

In his wrap-up he tells which investment methods are the most potent boosters of portfolio longevity.

I recommend this book to anyone who wonders if his investments will adequately sustain him during retirement, and how to keep them going as long as possible.

It's rigorously based on empirical data, which I found a more credible approach than any others on investing and retirement.

My only disappointment is that I wished he'd explained how to optimize the benefits of a RRIF, a Canadian retirement device. But as his book is intended for a wider audience than just Canadians, one can understand its omission.

As a financial planner with over half a century's experience I've read a lot of books about retirement and investing. This is the most believable of them all.

Buy it!

Don Pooley, CFP, CLU, CHFP