Customer Reviews

High Probability ETF Trading: 7 Professional Strategies To Improve Your ETF Trading

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1 star:		(5)

 

 

Using short term RSI for temporary overbought/oversold in a market headed the other way is a notion that these authors have presented before. However, by torturing the poor old RSI, they have found an additional trick for the pony. They also tortured John Bollinger's %b to produce pretty much the same signals found in the two RSI conditions.

A second approach, perhaps less familiar, is using highs/lows to create set-ups (highs/lows adverse to the market flow). Two variations on this, along with some scale down/up and scale in complete the eight entry strategems.

The authors have basically three varietals of exits. All are perfectly reasonable and appropriate to the work at hand. Two of these may be unfamiliar to many readers, thus making the book a worthwhile purchase without more.

I sound rather negative largely because those who have preceded me here are unjustifiably wildly optimistic. The book really covers very little ground, none of which is new.

At this update writing, I returned my book some three weeks ago. The company is claiming it didn't arrive and is declining to honor their guarantee. I also should note that Dave's wild enthusiasm may relate to his undisclosed business arrangements with the author/publisher of the book.

Larry Connors and Cesar Alvarez' new book, "High Probability ETF Trading," can be considered a continuation of the research Connors published in his earlier books, most recently in "Short Term Trading Strategies That Work." Written for short-term traders, the format is similar to his other books:

1. An introduction that lays out a trading philosophy;
2. General rules for setting up the trade, e.g., only take long trades when the S&P 500 Index is above its 200-day moving average;
3. Specific and simple entry and exit rules for a number of different trading systems;
4. Charts showing the entries and exits on various ETFs, with a step by step description of each part of the trade: setup, entry, and exit;
5. Trade results for these systems; and
6. Thoughts on scaling in and out of trades, as well as thoughts on money management.

Readers of "how-to" books generally worry about whether the published trades were "cherry-picked" to make the systems look better than they really are in practice. Connors and Alvarez point out the introduction to "High Probability ETF Trading" that the systems' rules are robust, not curve-fitted, and backed by years of statistical test results.

I know from reading his earlier books that Connors seeks to develop strategies with a high probability of success. He and Alvarez hit the mark in this new book, which describes various strategies they developed and tested on various non-leveraged ETFs. Some of the strategies, like RSI 25, were developed years ago and described in Connors' earlier books. Other strategies are brand new, like RSI 75 for shorting.

Unlike in Connors' earlier books, this book discusses both standard and aggressive entries. "Aggressive" entries are second buys that are scaled in when the ETF becomes more oversold (for a long entry) or overbought (for a short entry). For example, buy the first unit when the 4-period RSI is below 25. Buy the second unit if the 4-period RSI is below 20.

As an investment advisor, I have neither the time nor the temperament to wade through books with chapter after chapter of musings, personal thoughts, and disjointed ideas. What I appreciate most about this book, as with Connors' other books, is that the authors lay out their strategies in a no-nonsense, nuts-and-bolts fashion: "If this and this, then do that."

I've traded Connors' strategies for years and they work. No one trade will make you rich but the consistent small winners add up. I highly recommend reading "High Probability ETF Trading" if you are a short-term trader looking for strategies that will help you make money.

After having traded stocks for over 10 years, I've recently begun trading ETFs more and more because I simply find them easier to trade, less risky and more flexible. In generally, I've done okay adapting my stock trading methods to ETFs trading. But I was disappointed at the lack of professional level education available that would enable me to improve my profitability. Then along came Larry Connors' book, "High Probability ETF Trading." It is a collection of eight well-thought out strategies that are laid out in a clear and concise manner. It is written in a way that all trading books should be written -- you quickly read it and then apply it. There are indicators that these strategies employ are all readily available through standard chart packages. All the rules are black and white with no subjective judgment required. If you trade ETFs are planning to in the future, all I can say is that you must own this book.

Larry Connors' latest published work "High Probability ETF Trading" (along with Cesar Alvarez the Connors Research Group) is some of the best trading information and strategies available for trading the ETFs.

Let me give you a little background on my experience and why I feel I am that I can make such a strong statement.

I have been involved in trading and trading education for about 13 years. I have had the time and opportunity to review and utilize information from many different sources over these past 13 years. Not all of the information that I have received had been subjected to rigorous study and sound scientific methods. I would learn this the hard way as I put money to work using this information. I would learn terms like "over optimized", "varied inputs", "wrong time frame" as strategies that had looked fabulous on paper turned out to be the road to financial loss with losing streak after losing streak.

I discovered that the art of lying with statistics had been honed to a fine art by many trading educators and system and strategy developers.

I also discovered that Larry Connors was not a part of this group. Larry's work has always incorporated the highest standards for back testing and strategy development.

I have used the precursors to these latest strategies since 2004. I have had consistent profitability in my stock index futures trading using these older strategies. The latest publication has improved and enhanced these earlier strategies. I look forward to adding them to my trading plan.

The strategies published in this book should work very well the increasing number of double and triple ETFs.

The underlying diversification of the new ETFs with their resistance to event risk is well suited to the "reversion to the mean" strategies that are published in the book.

I can only thank Larry for continuing to provide solid strategy development and making them available to the pubic.

I give Mr.Conners much credit for laying out his trading rules with exceptional clarity, and for presenting the backtested results across many markets. The book is not vague and subjective. One rarely sees this in the, sadly, very questionable industry of trading advice. He is sharing an authentic "edge" he has discovered, which is more than one can say for the vast majority in this field.

The book is not perfect. He emphasizes the percentage of profitable trades and the average profit per trade. All well and good. But what was the worst trade? What was the maximum drawdown of a portfolio taking all his signals? What would the results be subtracting typical slippage and commissions? What was the longest losing period? One needs to know these data before starting a do-it-yourself trading program.

For the small price you pay, you get more than your money's worth in useful ideas from a brilliant, creative trading mind. In my opinion it would take prior trading experience, more research, and/or the purchase of one of the author's very expensive related services to implement the ideas safely and effectively. Indeed, the book seems to be a loss-leader for the advanced products. That stated, I liked it much more than most trading books I've read.

Purchased book, returned it for credit. The pump says strategies yield up to 90% winners, the dump is max gains are 2%! Unless you are trading a LARGE account, commissions would eat up any gains on the trade.

I'm currently reading the digital version of this book at [...] for the third time over the past few days. I'm looking at my ETF charts and I'm impressed at just how reliable Larry's trading setups are. I can confidently state that this book is showing me how to become a better and more profitable ETF trader by teaching me eight simple strategies with rules I can easily follow. I'm looking forward to profiting from it in months and years to come. I recommend it highly.

When massive numbers of traders and investors fled the markets as it crashed in 2008, there were plenty of opportunities for the methodical ETF trader. I know some ETF traders that did well and I since then I have wanted to become one of them! I read the few ETF books I could find but most of them told me about ETFs but not how to trade them. This new book from Larry Connors contains 7 strategies that allow you to trade successfully by following simple rules. It's exactly what I was looking for. Thanks! I was a fan of his last book, Short Term Trading Strategies That Work, and after reading his latest book I now have another great trading book on my bookshelf.

The book may have some value, but it's just a big come-on for his web based services. Save your money. There aren't enough details in the book to do you any good.

This book is ok. It will give you an idea what to do with ETFs. It wont necesserily make you money, because if it did Larry wouldnt write it, and instead he will be trading and chilling in Asia, where he lives. I reccomend you take a look if you want to learn how to trade at Toby Crabel, Linda Raschke, Ed Seykota's articles on Ebay. At least this people trade for a living, you can trust their strategies work.