How I Predicted the Global Economic Crisis*: The Most Amazing Book You'll Never Read [Paperback]

Mr. John R. Talbott (Author)

Book Description

Publication Date: March 15, 2011

How I Predicted the Global Economic Crisis*: The Most Amazing Book You’ll Never Read * and the dot.com collapse, the housing crash, the banking crisis, the stock market plunge, the length and depth of the current recession, the bankrupting of Fannie and Freddie, Europe’s debt problems, the muni-bond meltdown, a doubling of gold prices and the even bigger world economic crisis yet to come Think it’s over? If you don’t understand the real causes of the current crisis, it may cost you your job, your savings, your home and your country This is an introduction to the writings of the best selling author John R. Talbott, a former investment banker for Goldman Sachs and previously a Visiting Scholar at UCLA's Anderson School. In his books, Talbott, called an oracle with a track record by Bloomberg News, has accurately predicted every single financial crisis for the last twelve years. In this book he summarizes what he believes are the key underlying causes of the current crisis and explains why you better understand them if you are to protect your wealth and your family as there is an even bigger crisis coming on the horizon. In down to earth, easy to understand prose, Talbott relies on excerpts from his previous books along with new exposition to explain to all type readers, not just economists, that it makes little sense to attempt reform of Wall Street as long as the banking industry controls our congress through lobbying and campaign contributions. You will quickly realize the genius of this straight talking progressive who thinks the biggest crime of this crisis is that no banking executive has been imprisoned. A must read for serious investors, home owners and anyone interested in understanding how we can get out of this recession and avoid economic crises in the future. It has been said that if you want to know what people will be talking about years in the future, read Talbott now. John R. Talbott is the bestselling author of eight books on economics and politics that have accurately detailed and predicted the causes and devastating effects of this entire financial crisis including, in 2003, The Coming Crash in the Housing Market. In 2004, he correctly identified corporate and banking lobbyists and big money in politics as the major underlying cause of the current crisis with, Where America Went Wrong. In January 2006, he called the absolute peak month of home prices in the US by releasing, Sell Now! The End of the Housing Bubble and warned that the problem was not local, or even national, but international. In 2008, his book, Contagion: The Financial Epidemic That Is Sweeping the Global Economy predicted the subprime mortgage problem developing in the US would mutate and grow and infect not only prime mortgages, but other markets such as the stock market, commercial real estate, the municipal bond market, as well as threaten the solvency of banks and governments around the globe leading to a very long, deep and painful global recession. In 2009, The 86 Biggest Lies on Wall Street exposed the ineptness of the government’s response to the crisis and the futility of enacting real reform of Wall Street when Wall Street itself is the biggest lobbyist of our congress. Talbott has written peer reviewed academic research on democracy, inequality, AIDS prevention and developing country economics and has acted as an economic adviser to Jordan and Russia. He graduated from Cornell’s School of Engineering and received an MBA from UCLA. His work has appeared in the Wall Street Journal, the Financial Times, the Boston Globe, the San Francisco Chronicle, the Herald Tribune, the New Republic, the Huffington Post and salon.com. He has appeared as a financial expert on television for CNN, CBS, Fox News, CNBC, FBN, CSPAN and MSNBC as well as on hundreds of radio programs. The media can contact Talbott at [e-mail] as well as anyone who might be interested in discussing possible speaking engagements.

Editorial Reviews

About the Author

About the Author John R. Talbott is the bestselling author of eight books on economics and politics that have accurately detailed and predicted the causes and devastating effects of this entire financial crisis including, in 2003, The Coming Crash in the Housing Market. In 2004, he correctly identified corporate and banking lobbyists and big corporate money in politics as the major underlying cause of the current crisis with, Where America Went Wrong. In January 2006, he called the absolute peak month of home prices in the US by releasing, Sell Now! The End of the Housing Bubble and warned that the problem was not local, or even national, but international. In 2008, his book, Contagion: The Financial Epidemic That Is Sweeping the Global Economy predicted the subprime mortgage problem developing in the US would mutate and grow and infect not only prime mortgages, but other markets such as the stock market, commercial real estate, the municipal bond market, as well as threaten the solvency of banks and governments around the globe leading to a very long, deep and painful global recession. In 2009, The 86 Biggest Lies on Wall Street exposed the ineptness of the government’s response to the crisis and the futility of enacting real reform of Wall Street when Wall Street itself is the biggest lobbyist of our congress. Formerly, an investment banker for Goldman Sachs and a Visiting Scholar at UCLA’s Anderson School of Management, Talbott has written peer reviewed academic research on democracy, inequality, AIDS prevention and developing country economics and has acted as an economic adviser to Jordan and Russia. He has made presentations on economics and politics throughout the United States and in Italy and Australia. He graduated from Cornell’s School of Engineering and received an MBA from UCLA. His work has appeared in the Wall Street Journal, the Financial Times, the Boston Globe, the San Francisco Chronicle, the Herald Tribune, the New Republic, the Huffington Post and salon.com. He has appeared as a financial expert on television for CNN, CBS, Fox News, CNBC, FBN, CSPAN and MSNBC as well as on hundreds of radio programs. Talbott, whose family has lived in Kentucky for 230 years is the son of a career Army officer, is 56 years old, single, an avid college football and basketball fan and lives with his faithful companion, Boca Jr., who rarely objects to any of Talbott’s writings or politics except when it is time to go for a walk.

Product Details

• Paperback: 222 pages
• Publisher: CreateSpace Independent Publishing Platform (March 15, 2011)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 1461013860
• ISBN-13: 978-1461013860
• Product Dimensions: 6 x 9 x 0.5 inches
• Shipping Weight: 12 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)
• Average Customer Review: 4.5 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (4 customer reviews)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #141,250 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

More About the Author

John offers financial consulting advice on a very personal and confidential basis to individuals and families. You can learn more about his One on One consulting activities at www.StopTheLying.com

John R. Talbott is the bestselling author of nine books on economics and politics that have accurately detailed and predicted the causes and devastating effects of this entire financial crisis including, in 2003, The Coming Crash in the Housing Market. In 2004, he correctly identified corporate and banking lobbyists and big corporate money in politics as the major underlying cause of the current crisis with, Where America Went Wrong. In January 2006, he called the absolute peak month of home prices in the US by releasing, Sell Now! The End of the Housing Bubble and warned that the problem was not local, or even national, but international. In 2008, his book, Contagion: The Financial Epidemic That Is Sweeping the Global Economy predicted the subprime mortgage problem developing in the US would mutate and grow and infect not only prime mortgages, but other markets such as the stock market, commercial real estate, the municipal bond market, as well as threaten the solvency of banks and governments around the globe leading to a very long, deep and painful global recession. In 2009, The 86 Biggest Lies on Wall Street exposed the ineptness of the government's response to the crisis and the futility of enacting real reform of Wall Street when Wall Street itself is the biggest lobbyist of our congress.

Formerly, an investment banker for Goldman Sachs and a Visiting Scholar at UCLA's Anderson School of Management, Talbott has written peer reviewed academic research on democracy, inequality, AIDS prevention and developing country economics and has acted as an economic adviser to Jordan and Russia. He has made presentations on economics and politics throughout the United States and in Italy and Australia. He graduated from Cornell's School of Engineering and received an MBA from UCLA. His work has appeared in the Wall Street Journal, the Financial Times, the Boston Globe, the San Francisco Chronicle, the Herald Tribune, the New Republic, the Huffington Post and salon.com. He has appeared as a financial expert on television for CNN, CBS, Fox News, CNBC, FBN, CSPAN and MSNBC as well as on hundreds of radio programs. Talbott, whose family has lived in Kentucky for 230 years is the son of a career Army officer, is 57 years old, single, an avid college football and basketball fan and lives on the left coast with his faithful companion, Boca Jr., who rarely objects to any of Talbott's writings or politics except when it is time to go for a walk.

The media can contact Talbott at [e-mail] as well as anyone who might be interested in discussing possible speaking engagements. Those interested in learning more about Talbott's one on one consulting service can find information here www.StopTheLying.com

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

6 of 6 people found the following review helpful

5.0 out of 5 stars Excellent Book April 23, 2011

By Cuz

Format:Paperback|Amazon Verified Purchase

Unlike one of the other "reviewers", I have not read all of Talbott's books. This is my first one. In reading this book, which is essentially made up of parts of his previous ones, with some additional insights, it is amazing to learn not only his insight in predicting the disasters in world finance, but also the root cause of the problems. The book takes you through the last ten or so years, correctly predicting the national and world financial problems as he goes along. Reading the book and comparing his predictions to what has actually occurred is amazing. What I found even more evocative was his analysis of the unchecked power of large corporations, not only in finance, but reaching into and controlling government and other seemingly independent agents such as the media and universities to benefit the corporations.

In this day and age, when General Electric owns GE Capital, NBC and MSNBC, its CEO is the President's Czar on employment and it earns $15 Billion, yet pays no taxes, but rather receives $3 Billion in tax credits, every citizen should educate themselves on the unchecked and dangerous power of these large corporations and banks. They lobby government to write the laws to benefit themselves and then pay no taxes to the very government which allows them to profit. This book does an excellent job of explaining the problems of our country and knowing the author predicted the fallout of these problems years before they occurred gives his thoughts added clout and significance.

7 of 8 people found the following review helpful

5.0 out of 5 stars MUST READ April 19, 2011

By CF

Format:Kindle Edition|Amazon Verified Purchase

I've read every single book by this author - I truly appreciate his foresight. If you really want to know what's going on in America, and the direction that we're heading, you need not look any further. You'll find that many books on Finance will end up confirming what the author has been saying all along. It's impossible not to read his books and not get angry with our current system! We need to wake up to the fact that the government is placing the needs of corporations and the corporation elite above those of its citizens. In 'Contagion', Mr. Talbott predicted the countries that would be seeking a financial bailout - well before it made the news! Mr. Talbott's books have helped guide my financial planning in terms of what to expect next. My husband chooses to believe the media (and deal with the situations as they come), I rather prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Read this book if you'd like to know what's in store for the next couple of years - you'll soon find that it's not too pretty. I know that the author is holding out hope that America will wake up and collectively work to improve our current system by becoming more involved - we can only do so when we educate themselves instead of accepting what we're given at face value.

This book is a MUST READ.

11 of 15 people found the following review helpful

3.0 out of 5 stars Are Corporations More Problem than Solution? April 13, 2011

By Paul Dueweke

Format:Paperback|Amazon Verified Purchase

PROBLEM

Talbott's sense of the problem with modern America is embodied in a single word that he uses probably hundreds of times in this book--corporations--and on that most destructive subset of corporations--banks. This focus on corporations and banks has a great deal of merit. Americans' awareness of the "problem of the corporation" has been underscored by two recent events: 1) the collapse of the largest financial corporations, both in America and elsewhere, and 2) the even more recent Supreme Court decision in Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission giving corporations broad new power to influence elections in addition to their existing vast army of lobbyists concentrating on both elected and non-elected government officials.

Talbott's book presents excerpts from a dozen of his writings over the last twelve years about this very problem. His last two chapters--"When Corporations and Banks Ruled the World" and "What Does the Future Hold?" summarize the present situation and his proposals for solutions. The book is a credible presentation of the recent evolution of the power of corporations, especially financial corporations. Talbott understands the technical details of the problem and explains them effectively.

SOLUTIONS

His primary proposed solution for banks is further regulation and for other corporations is to start an organization to track corporate lobbying and to get its members to boycott the products of the most egregious offenders. He thinks that one to ten million members doing their boycotts would have a significant effect on corporate lobbying. He's probably right about that. But the larger problem of how to motivate that many of the American consumption cult to care enough about some arcane principle or some speculated future to postpone their child-like craving is a whole other problem that he seems to likewise appreciate. In my simple view, we haven't yet experienced enough pain to fundamentally change our habits. Talbott does not comment on social motivation's relationship to pain experienced. I believe that's the critical weakness in anyone's proposed solutions. Sadly, by the time sufficient pain has been delivered to us, the correction window may be shut.

As much as I applaud Talbott's rationale, approach, and enthusiasm, and as much as I agree that America is approaching some edge from which we may not be able to retreat, I don't think this book is a well-designed tool to achieve his objective. In fact it's not clear from either the title or the content just what his objective is. His definition of the problem as residing in corporations is overly simplistic. He also dwells on the issue of greed, but greed is a basic characteristic of human nature, and we have no power over such human motivations as greed, sex, and food. So if greed cannot be controlled and the corporation is not the real problem, then what is?

We have created Government so it is directly under the control of We The People. Corporations are not. Government is the source of the favors and the subsidies that turns the natural greed of corporate executives against the best interests of society. The government/business alliance is a very efficient machine. Corporations provide the funds for politicians to build their power; politicians use their power to enrich corporations. All it takes for this alliance to prosper is for We The People to be kept safely sated in our consumption cocoon. The alliance is also very good at that. And I should mention here that "corporations" refer to all incorporated organizations, including labor unions, trade associations, universities, and a whole host of other institutions, all of which feast at the trough of government favors.

In the financial sector, these favors and subsidies flow mostly through the Federal Reserve Bank. Most people consider the Fed to be a part of Government, despite its so-called "independence." Others think of Government as a part of the Fed. Considering the actions of the last two presidential administrations, one can make a strong case for the later hierarchy. No matter which one is in control, Congress ultimately has the power of life or death over the Fed, and We The People--if awakened--ultimately have the power of life or death over Congress.

MONEY

Though corporations do tremendous good for the world, Talbott is right that they also do much evil. Let's find the common element in the evil they do. On p. 11 Talbott says in recapping earlier bank excesses:
"In the early 80's, the banks overextended themselves in farm lending. Later in the decade they loaned way too much money on far too aggressive terms to the real estate developers. During the late 80's they loaned too much money to corporations in the form of leveraged buyouts."
What is the common element in "overextended themselves," "loaned way too much money," and "loaned too much money"? It is, of course, "too much money." If too much money had not been available to the banks, they would not have made such unwise loans. That "too much money" didn't just happen to be on their balance sheets. Where did all that money come from to force home prices so high and expand consumer debt so grossly?

It was there because of two things: the Federal Reserve Bank and fractional reserve banking. Both of these were brought to us by the United States Government--the Fed by an act of Congress (Federal Reserve Act of 1913) and fractional reserve banking as a tradition of the Bank of England and mandated in the Federal Reserve Act. The bottom line is that the Fed, created as a creature of Government, has subsidized economic growth and corporate profits with cheap and abundant credit for a long time. In addition, federal and state governments have been the biggest long-term growth sector in our whole economy, and the Fed has provided abundant funds for that also. The abundance of cheap credit reached an absurd level before the 2007 financial crisis and has even risen since then. To define corporations as the problem and to suggest a solution in terms of further regulation and boycotts misdirects our corrective efforts and thus keeps us busy attending to symptoms rather than to the real problem.

One action that would at least shed some daylight on the presently secret acts of the Fed is an act in the House of Representatives that simply requires that a full audit of the Fed be performed--the Federal Reserve Transparency Act (H.R. 459). A similar bill died in committee last Congress, and this new bill likely will do the same this year since mainstream Republicans and Democrats do not want to threaten the source of cheap money for their benefactors.

SUBSIDIES

But in the end, the one thing that would do the most to stamp out all corporate political power (not just banks) would be to get rid of ALL Federal Government corporate subsidies. What are these subsidies? Here are a few: cheap credit, cheap energy, cheap imported labor, agriculture, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, education, security of the high seas, assassinations, coups, security of much of the world (including Europe, Israel, the Middle East, and Asia), and so much more. Putting an end to corporate subsidies would: 1) reduce our foreign interventionism, 2) reduce America's internal political empires, 3) reduce the soaring chronic disease rates of people eating subsidized western factory food as opposed to the traditional products of local farms, 4) bring education management back to the local level, and 5) reduce the hundreds of billions of annual taxpayer dollars to maintain the millions of legal and illegal aliens whose primary justification is to drive the cost of labor to rock bottom.

But the chance of our stopping subsidies is probably no better than boycotting corporations. And it is totally impossible so long as we continue to elect mainstream politicians like Bush, Obama, Pelosi, Reid, Boehner, and McCain. The apathy of voters is a human nature issue, which, in my view, we have no chance of influencing. But if you really want to boycott something, try the mainstream media (including the much-exalted PBS) who don't give any coverage of the third part candidates. And while you're at it, boycott the Commission on Presidential Debates that gives us those worthless debates between two worthless candidates falling all over themselves to not offend their worthless parties--or voting blocks. If you want a really novel approach to reigning in our out-of-control politicians, check out the book "This Bloodless Liberty" by David Zuniga.

REFERENCES

Finally there is a technical issue that is a serious problem with this book. There are no footnotes (or even endnotes), no references, no index, no appendices, no charts or tables, almost no supporting data of any kind. Let me just pick on the references. The real purpose of references is not just to provide sources for readers to check if they choose. More importantly, scrupulous commitment to referencing enforces a discipline on the writer. If the writer must back up every fact with a source, then that requirement puts an effective damper on presenting speculative or unconfirmed statements as fact rather than opinion. Talbott does not use that discipline tool, and thus his text contains many questionable statements disguised as facts. An alternative to credible references is credible data. That is also largely absent. For example:
p. 206 - "Even after the crisis, bankers are now paying themselves record bonuses as the world's citizens suffer a loss of 50 million jobs, 20 million homes and approximately $30 trillion of accumulated wealth."
p. 199 - "...most sovereign country debt is rated AAA..."
p. 197 - "... Read more ›