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How Terrorism Ends: Understanding the Decline and Demise of Terrorist Campaigns
 
 
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How Terrorism Ends: Understanding the Decline and Demise of Terrorist Campaigns [Hardcover]

Audrey Kurth Cronin (Author)
4.5 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (2 customer reviews)

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Book Description

0691139482 978-0691139487 August 24, 2009

Amid the fear following 9/11 and other recent terror attacks, it is easy to forget the most important fact about terrorist campaigns: they always come to an end--and often far more quickly than expected. Contrary to what many assume, when it comes to dealing with terrorism it may be more important to understand how it ends than how it begins. Only by understanding the common ways in which terrorist movements have died out or been eradicated in the past can we hope to figure out how to speed the decline of today's terrorist groups, while avoiding unnecessary fears and costly overreactions. In How Terrorism Ends, Audrey Kurth Cronin examines how terrorist campaigns have met their demise over the past two centuries, and applies these enduring lessons to outline a new strategy against al-Qaeda.

This book answers questions such as: How long do terrorist campaigns last? When does targeting the leadership finish a group? When do negotiations lead to the end? Under what conditions do groups transition to other forms of violence, such as insurgency or civil war? How and when do they succeed or fail, and then disappear? Examining a wide range of historical examples--including the anti-tsarist Narodnaya Volya, the Provisional IRA, Peru's Shining Path, Japan's Aum Shinrikyo, and various Palestinian groups--Cronin identifies the ways in which almost all terrorist groups die out, including decapitation (catching or killing the leader), negotiation, repression, and implosion.

How Terrorism Ends is the only comprehensive book on its subject and a rarity among all the books on terrorism--at once practical, optimistic, rigorous, and historical.



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Editorial Reviews

Review


Cronin makes a significant contribution to the scholarly literature on terrorism and counterterrorism. While other scholars have written extensively on the motivations, methods, and means of terrorism, Cronin is the first to look seriously and historically at how terrorist campaigns come to an end. -- Choice



While the causes of terrorism have long been subject to avid research, Audrey Kurth Cronin's cogent and thoughtful text responds to the curious dearth of works attending to its ends. This is clearly a timely project, coming as policy-makers and academics are increasingly seeking alternative ways to think about and practice terrorism. . . . [The] case-studies are easily the most gripping and readable sections of the text. Cronin never flattens for the sake of parsimonious argumentation, rather allowing the specificity of each case to enlighten us for the continuities and differences at work. As a consequence, they are rich in fascinating detail and her derived conclusions are sophisticated. . . . Such insights should rightly guarantee the text a wide readership. . . . The timeliness, clarity and simplicity of the project contained in How Terrorism Ends should commend it to readers of all descriptions. Above all, Cronin's sensible and well-argued call for 'smarter'(pg. 193) strategies for dealing with terrorism today is one that deserves to be widely heard. -- Nicholas Michelsen, International Affairs



By writing How Terrorism Ends, Audrey Kurth Cronin . . . has provided a service to everyone with an interest in counterterrorism by providing much-needed perspective. . . . Cronin's analysis is textured, challenging and insightful. And, as with all good analyses, the assertions at the heart of the argument prompt further lines of inquiry for scholars and practitioners to explore. . . . How Terrorism Ends shines a light on the key issues that relate to an al-Qa'eda threat that is becoming increasingly diffuse, diverse and devolved--and, even with the benefit of Cronin's perspective, difficult to predict. -- Christopher Mackmurdo, Global Policy



In a new book with the blunt title How Terrorism Ends, Cronin . . . has filled that gap by collecting and analyzing as much information as possible about the demise of past terrorist campaigns and organizations. Eschewing sociological or psychological speculation about why groups opt to use terrorism, she focuses instead on the strategic consequences of their actions. The result is a refreshingly sober treatment of the subject. -- Justin Vogt, The National



Serious work on this subject has begun to emerge with Audrey Kurth Cronin's splendid recent study, How Terrorism Ends, providing a strong example. -- Richard English, International Affairs



I applaud the outstanding analysis in this book. By meticulously selecting, recording, and examining terrorism, Cronin has provided an excellent foundation for the planners and implementers of counterterrorism. -- Terence Parker, Michigan War Studies Review



The fact that Cronin's book raises more questions than it answers may ultimately be a positive, because she aims to provide a wide ranging analysis of a subject in its early phases that can serve as a springboard to future studies. How Terrorism Ends is, therefore, a worthwhile book for both academics and policymakers. If a reader agrees with some points and finds others lacking, but ultimately considers how to grapple with terrorism from a new perspective, Cronin will have succeeded in her aims. -- Peter J. P. Krause, Journal of Strategic Studies



Cronin has written an important book on how terrorism ends. Her analysis is equally illuminating for its insights into why people engage in terrorism in the first place. -- Max Abrahms, Middle East Quarterly



[A] broad variety of approaches benefit from Cronin's work. It is hard to imagine a thoughtful reader who won't be provoked by something in this book. It is still harder to imagine one who won't fine his or her work enriched by it. -- Thomas Maddux, H-Diplo ISSF



How Terrorism Ends is comprehensive, historical, and academically rigorous. Terror campaigns might seem endless, but as Cronin has so accurately depicted, terror campaigns always end and usually not in the favor of the terrorists organization. I highly recommend the book to anyone with an interest in understanding terrorist organizations and the political and military means to defeat them. -- Ken Miller, Military Review

From the Inside Flap


"A truly superb book that addresses the actual resolution of terrorist movements. It has a clarity and definitiveness that is rare in the literature and, moreover, will be of special interest to any official or analyst endeavoring to cope with this threatening and sinister problem. Its careful and rigorous message is one of hope."--Philip Bobbitt, author of Terror and Consent: The Wars for the Twenty-first Century

"Thoughtful books on terrorism are sadly a rarity. How Terrorism Ends not only meets that test but also tackles a neglected aspect of the subject. I cannot think of another book that addresses the ending of terrorist campaigns in the systematic way or with the depth that Audrey Cronin does."--Adrian Guelke, author of Terrorism and Global Disorder

"This is a thoughtful, sensible, and well-researched analysis of an important but understudied subject with immense policy relevance. It presents a systematic comparative framework that places al-Qaeda in historical perspective."--Martha Crenshaw, author of Terrorism in Context

"This is a superb book dealing with an important and timely topic. It is impressive in its research, very well written, and full of insights. A must-read."--Brian Michael Jenkins, author of Will Terrorists Go Nuclear?



Product Details

  • Hardcover: 432 pages
  • Publisher: Princeton University Press (August 24, 2009)
  • Language: English
  • ISBN-10: 0691139482
  • ISBN-13: 978-0691139487
  • Product Dimensions: 9.3 x 6.3 x 1.1 inches
  • Shipping Weight: 1.4 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
  • Average Customer Review: 4.5 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (2 customer reviews)
  • Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #125,858 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

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8 of 8 people found the following review helpful:
5.0 out of 5 stars Excellent Book, April 29, 2010
This review is from: How Terrorism Ends: Understanding the Decline and Demise of Terrorist Campaigns (Hardcover)
How Terrorism ends by Audrey Kurth Cronin in a well written and well researched book that lays out the intellectual framework and the crucial points leading to the demise of various terrorists organizations. Cronin's work is extremely relevant in the world today as it attempts to illustrate how terrorist organizations end and thus how nations may develop strategies and goals that leads to the demise of the terrorists' organization. One of the major findings that Cronin points out is that less than 5% of all terrorists' campaigns succeed. Killing civilians does not seem to be a promising means to achieve political aims.
Cronin points out six historical ways in which terrorist organizations end: the capture or killing the group's leader, entry of the group into a legitimate political process, achievement of the groups aims, implosion or loss of the groups public support, defeat and elimination by brute force and transition from terrorism to other forms of violence. A chapter of the book is dedicated to each of these findings and is thoroughly detailed through the use of empirical data, case studies, and various graphs to illustrate the author's points.
Some of the findings in the book are quite interesting for example: most terrorist organizations last less than 8 years; killing a terrorists leader may not damage the group as much as arresting him, especially if he is humiliated before the public and sentenced to prison; states negotiate with terrorists because they want the conflict to end, whereas the terrorist organization may not want the same; and finally, terrorists often fail because the violence they perpetrate on the civilian populace they are trying to win over ends up provoking popular revulsion versus popular support. The use of the case studies to point out the strengths and limitations of each of the six ways in which terrorist organizations end clearly and succinctly points out the veracity of the authors points.
The most interesting portion of the book is chapter 7, titled How Al-Qaeda Ends. Cronin points out up front that Al-Qaeda will end without achieving its strategic goals, but along the way she clearly points out how Al-Qaeda is different than most other terrorist organizations. The chapter clearly demonstrates the strengths of Al-Qaeda, it's resilience, methods of recruitment, means of support and communications. What is interesting though is Cronin then demonstrates how Al-Qaeda may end using the six historical ways described earlier in the book. Cronin does not conceive how Al-Qaeda could fully realize their strategic aims because ultimately Al-Qaeda's aims are not clearly articulated and are too broad in context to be achievable.
How Terrorism Ends is a very comprehensive, historical and academically rigorous look at terrorism. Terror campaigns may seem endless, but as Cronin has so accurately depicted, terror campaigns always end and usually not in the favor of the terrorists organization. I highly recommend this book to anyone with an interest in understanding terrorist's organizations and the political and military means to defeat terrorist's organizations.
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8 of 27 people found the following review helpful:
4.0 out of 5 stars Needs Inside the Book for Fifth Star, April 3, 2010
This review is from: How Terrorism Ends: Understanding the Decline and Demise of Terrorist Campaigns (Hardcover)
If and when the publisher provides the table of contents and a sample chapter (easy to upload using the standard publishing tools offered by Amazon Advantage) or works with Amazon to achieve Inside the Book access, I will consider buying this book.

In the meantime, I will observer that this book has been highly recommended by Berto Jongman, the top European observer of terrorism and the creator of the World Conflict & Human Rights map, and is so featured at Phi Beta Iota, the Public Intelligence Blog, where the Amazon reader can find an easy to access section on Jihad and Terrorism with all my reviews on this subject.

My one reservation about this book, lacking a sufficiency of Inside the Book information, is that it appears to assume that if one just does the "right things" such as kill leaders, terrorism will eventually die out. Robert Arkoff would turn in his grave over this thought. Terrorism is a tactic, a manifestation of discontent so grave as to indict the state as a failed state in relation to the needs of the segment adopting terrorism. Hence, this book may be more about doing the wrong things righter instead of doing the right things: assuring every group a prosperous world at peace.

Corruption, not terrorism, is in my view the primary curse of all governments and the global network of interests that seek to optimize wealth for the few at the expense of the many. Terrorism, in my view, is a logical in extremis response, a demand to be taken seriously that governments continue to treat at face value (violent crime) rather than as a root value being expressed (seriously angry people with brains and willpower).

See also:

Dying to Win: The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism

Collective Intelligence: Creating a Prosperous World at Peace

INTELLIGENCE for EARTH: Clarity, Diversity, Integrity, & Sustainaabilty
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