Customer Reviews

IMPENDING CRISIS-HC-OSI

5 star:		(19)
4 star:		(0)
3 star:		(1)
2 star:		(2)
1 star:		(0)

 

 

Frankly, I sure as heck hope this scenario comes to pass, but have serious skepticism about it.

As a new 2003 graduate of a prestigious university who is utterly and completely unemployed, with virtually no interest in my considerable talents and skills, I wonder about the future of white collar America. The author makes many rash assumptions and takes BLS stats as if they were the gospel truth. Look back at BLS projections for 1992-2002 if you want to see how fast things can change. Not even close to what actually transpired. He assumes perfect economic growth on the level of the late 90s, extrapolated out over the next 10-20 years. This is simply not feasible in an era of globalisation.

The biggest wild card is offshoring. An unbelievable amount of work will be sent overseas in the next 5-10 years. By some estimates, over ten million jobs could go out of the country, with over half of these being white collar and professional in nature. That sucks up the shortage right there. In addition, a subpar job creation pattern, economic slowdowns, and an exponential growth in immigration will remove even more labor need. I anticipate that there will not be a shortage, but persistent and growing unemployment.

He also places blame on the American education system for not creating enough skilled and educated people. What world has he been living in? College attendance is up dramatically over the past 10-20 years and graduate attendance is surging as well. If anything, the skills defects will stem from an era of new graduates from 2001-2003 and indefinately beyond that have been left behind. A huge number of America's youth, ranging from HS dropouts to Ivy League graduates, are either unemployed or severely underemployed by an economy that has gotten so picky that they will not train. A major step in the career development of those in their early and mid twenties has been eliminated. Are the future business leaders of tomorrow supposed to develop by waiting tables with advanced degrees? This is further worsened by the fact that many offshored jobs are entry level in nature. We are training the Indians to replace our youth.

This book is written for the employers, so if you don't own a business or are not in a high level management, your benefit of reading this book will not be substantial.

My dissatisfaction of this book has to do with high level of alarm this book raises based on speculation. The subtitle of this book is "Too many jobs too few people". Due to the demographics (which is impossible to alter in a short period), it is certain we will have too few people in the work force by 2010. The question is will there be too many jobs by 2010? Even the author concedes it is impossible to forecast the economy in the next 5 years, let alone the next 10. Hence, the author's conclusion of pending doom of massive skilled worker shortage by 2010 is speculative.

In fact, many prominent economists will argue that the economy will falter BADLY after 2010 because the consumer spending will drop like a rock due to the aging population (people over 55 spend considerably less). The actual scenario might be "too few jobs too many people".

Finally, the reliability of author's statistics are somewhat questionable (they are from the government after all). For example, according to the author, there are more than 3 million jobs right now than the number of people to fill them. In reality, however, the job market has been the toughest it has been in years, and many people are being laid off without work for over 6 months or more. When statistics conflict with reality, then ALWAYS trust the reality.

I've been a fan of Roger Herman and his books for many years and once again he shows us the insight of looking to the future, but acting now to make the best of that future when it arrives. During a time when many managers and business owners may be focused solely on survival, Roger and his co-authors, Tom Olivo and Joyce Gioia, show the importance of focusing on current business and management practices that can enhance employee engagement, communication, and recognition and thus improve employee relationships, tenure and recruiting as it becomes an even more significant competitive advantage in years to come. Clearly and persuasively written, I also like that this book includes useful action steps for improving any company's circumstances on its way to becoming an "employer of choice."

Finally, a book that connects the dots with all the data that supports what I've been experiencing all along as a small business owner: We're in an employee crunch that won't go away unless we as employers do some long-term planning NOW. Despite all the media hype about the highly qualified people on the street currently looking for work, I've been frustrated for the past few years in finding the qualified, productive few to fill the slots we have. Herman, Gioia, and Olivo explain why. Makes good sense!

But they don't stop with theory and statistics. (Granted, there are plenty of charts, facts, and numbers. But I liked those-adds credibility. I want authors to give me proof rather than platitudes.) They outline an action plan for employers to make sure they don't get caught in the crunch. I'm handing the book to my general manager and telling him to implement immediately.

By the way, I liked the readable style. Great pullouts of the key ideas. Easy to skim. You could even hand this book to a department supervisor or manager to cull ideas to correct department recruitment, retention, and productivity problems. Although it addresses big-picture issues of strategic planning, it certainly gets down to the details of the do-now-today stuff .

Dianna Booher, author of 40 books, including Speak with Confidence, Communicate with Confidence, and E-Writing

It may seem hard to believe in today's stagnant job market, but by 2010 the U.S. Labor Dept. is predicting a labor shortage of ten million people. In Impending Crisis: Too Many Jobs - Too Few People, Roger Herman and his colleagues explore the dimensions of the coming crisis in the first half of this book, and offer strategies and tactics for proactively managing it in the second.

Heard IMPENDING CRISIS by Roger E. Herman, Thomas G. Olivo
and Joyce L. Gioia, a book whose subtitle says it all: TOO MANY
JOBS, TOO FEW PEOPLE . . . though there's a fair amount of
theory relating to strategic planning, I liked it because of its practical
approach to things that can be done on a daily basis . . . this is
extremely useful for any individual or firm interested in ideas on how
to improve recruitment and retention, as well as about how to deal
with productivity problems.

Some of what the authors write may sound too obvious; e.g., employees
should be able to say:
1. I am proud to work for my company.
2. Our company has a stated set of values or guiding principles.
3. Our company has clearly articulated its values and beliefs.
4. Our hiring practices evaluate if new hires will work well in our
culture.
5. Our company places a high priority on training and development.

Yet because these recommendations are backed up with actual
research findings, I tend to believe that they make sense in almost
any work situation.

When conducting and reporting on research of this type, especially when dealing with the numbers of available workforce one has to be careful not to forget the number of unemployed only reflects those that are statistically reported as ACTIVELY receiving unemployment benefits. Those unemployed who have exhausted their unemployment benefits before finding work are not counted, which means the real number of unemployed workers is in reality much higher that reported. Therefore the "too few people" may not be as few as one might suspect.


The age of the workforce is another subject worth noting - any executive knows that the "over 50" worker has an extremely valuable amount of experience, and many study and keep up with changing technology and work related issues as much, if not more, than their younger counterparts. Just because a longer period has passed since they graduated college does not mean they are not current with relevent knowledge, and a company that only hires young people because they will work for less money is, in the end, getting exactly what they pay for.

IMPENDING CRISIS is vision founded on common sense and substaintiated by unrefutable data. It plainly defines the coming management challenge that most business leaders do not take seriously. Frankly, that's just fine with us. Competitors - please don't read this book. Our organizations are preparing based on the guidance of Herman, Olivo and Gioia. We expect it to be our greatest competitive advantage.
ROB A. CAPRETTO, Ph.D.
Owner, BayWest Business Solutions, Inc.

Serious labor shortages will challenge employers this decade. By 2010, we?ll have 10,033,000 more jobs than skilled workers to fill them. This vital issue is presented, with an abundance of evidence, followed by concrete advice about what employers must do to defend themselves. Highly readable, direct, designed for corporate executives. Over 20 new concepts are presented in this thought-provoking wake-up call. Filled with graphs and charts that lay out the emerging shortage of skilled labor. Highly recommended for senior executives. This book reveals a problem that won?t go away and must be addressed.

Herman, Olivo, and Gioia combine facts and figures with real-world examples to describe the next wave of workforce issues facing America. They go beyond the impending crisis and provide solutions. This team of workforce trend watchers and consultants has truly found the problem and offered practical solutions to address it.

Impending Crisis is written for business leaders and managers seeking solutions to look beyond the present and prepare for the future. This book is filled with research to backup the assertions and recommendations. More than 50 figures are used to support critical points. And, an extensive bibliography of valuable references is provided.

Reading Impending Crisis is not like reading many other business books. It is drawn from the research and experience of the authors who obviously know the subject and who care deeply about the issues facing the workforce and business.

I recommend this book to human resource professionals, business leaders, and students seeking to understand the workforce of tomorrow. Read it; discuss it; use it! The crisis is impending. So is the solution. Read the book; discover solutions!

Reviewed December 22, 2002 by John L. Bennett
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