Impending Crisis: Too Many Jobs, Too Few People [Hardcover]

Roger E. Herman (Author), Thomas G. Olivo (Author), Joyce L. Gioia (Author)

Book Description

Publication Date: October 12, 2002

Looming crisis ahead! There’s a dangerously growing shortage of skilled workers to fill jobs. Projections from the Bureau of Labor Statistics forecast a shortage of skilled 10,033,000 workers by 2010. And this shortage is simply raw numbers; it doesn’t fully address the growing skills gap. The numbers also don’t take into account the changing attitudes in the workforce.

This crisis is just around the corner. Trends are converging to create an unprecedented dilemma for employers throughout the free world. Because so few corporate leaders are fully aware of their predicament, executives who do prepare for the new operating environment will lead their organizations to a bright future; those who ignore the threat risk dangerous vulnerability.

Employers have been lulled into complacency by the demands of economic, stock market, and competitive issues. Even with all these problems, there’s a bigger challenge on the way: Cyclical economic growth will create more jobs, providing abundant opportunities for workers who will make their own choices. Will they choose you?

Many healthy employers today risk extinction. If they don’t begin serious repositioning right away. the risk is great. Unfortunately, few, if any, employers have addressed the issues.

This book is a wake-up call. Filled with evidence and advice, for corporate leaders in for-profit, not-for-profit, governmental, and education organizations, this book cites chapter and verse about how to evaluate your vulnerability and take action.

No one is immune. The concepts presented in these pages are vital for board members, Chief Executive Officers, Chief Financial Officers, Chief Human Resource Officers, and others responsible for present and future sustainable success. Chances are, they have not evaluated their vulnerability or made viable plans to manage the impact of this crisis on their organizations.

Editorial Reviews

Review

Best Books of 2002. Creative leadership, relevant, unique insight, actionable ... with 'head twisting' to challenge you. -- The CEO Refresher

Executives who want to ensure their companies' future success would be wise to follow this book's advice. -- Tom Lucas, Senior Vice President, Human Resources, Adecco Employment Services

Impending Crisis is a book with a daunting message for business leaders everywhere: get moving, or else! -- Nancy K. Austin, Co-Author, Passion for Excellence

This is an important book. The authors offer insights on the future of managing a critical corporate resource - talent. -- Richard J. Semenik, Ph.D., Dean, College of Business, Montana State University

About the Author

The authors of this book are ideally equipped to bring this vital message to corporate leaders. Roger Herman and Joyce Gioia are Strategic Business Futurists concentrating on workforce and workplace trends. Both are full members of the Association of Professional Futurists and Roger serves as Contributing Editor for The Futurist magazine. They are both Certified Management Consultants with a combined experience base of over 40 years of consulting to management. They call on this vast experience base to provide real-world, implementable solutions.

Tom Olivo is an internationally known specialist in measurement, recognized for his expertise in measuring factors that affect bottom-line performance of organizations. His extensive research is brought to bear to fully explain the magnitude of the problem¯and the opportunity.

As a team of consultants, speakers, and writers, they are direct and forthright. They tell it like it is.

Product Details

• Hardcover: 332 pages
• Publisher: OakHill Press; 1 edition (October 12, 2002)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 1886939535
• ISBN-13: 978-1886939530
• Product Dimensions: 9 x 6 x 1.1 inches
• Shipping Weight: 1.4 pounds
• Average Customer Review: 4.6 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (22 customer reviews)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #1,348,153 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

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Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

22 of 26 people found the following review helpful:

2.0 out of 5 stars Author Ignores Several "Wildcards", June 18, 2003

By 

"mcne0088" (Minneapolis, MN) - See all my reviews

This review is from: Impending Crisis: Too Many Jobs, Too Few People (Hardcover)

Frankly, I sure as heck hope this scenario comes to pass, but have serious skepticism about it.

As a new 2003 graduate of a prestigious university who is utterly and completely unemployed, with virtually no interest in my considerable talents and skills, I wonder about the future of white collar America. The author makes many rash assumptions and takes BLS stats as if they were the gospel truth. Look back at BLS projections for 1992-2002 if you want to see how fast things can change. Not even close to what actually transpired. He assumes perfect economic growth on the level of the late 90s, extrapolated out over the next 10-20 years. This is simply not feasible in an era of globalisation.

The biggest wild card is offshoring. An unbelievable amount of work will be sent overseas in the next 5-10 years. By some estimates, over ten million jobs could go out of the country, with over half of these being white collar and professional in nature. That sucks up the shortage right there. In addition, a subpar job creation pattern, economic slowdowns, and an exponential growth in immigration will remove even more labor need. I anticipate that there will not be a shortage, but persistent and growing unemployment.

He also places blame on the American education system for not creating enough skilled and educated people. What world has he been living in? College attendance is up dramatically over the past 10-20 years and graduate attendance is surging as well. If anything, the skills defects will stem from an era of new graduates from 2001-2003 and indefinately beyond that have been left behind. A huge number of America's youth, ranging from HS dropouts to Ivy League graduates, are either unemployed or severely underemployed by an economy that has gotten so picky that they will not train. A major step in the career development of those in their early and mid twenties has been eliminated. Are the future business leaders of tomorrow supposed to develop by waiting tables with advanced degrees? This is further worsened by the fact that many offshored jobs are entry level in nature. We are training the Indians to replace our youth.

13 of 17 people found the following review helpful:

2.0 out of 5 stars Disappointing, November 1, 2003

By 

Jaewoo Kim "OB-Wan" (Santa Monica, CA) - See all my reviews
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This review is from: Impending Crisis: Too Many Jobs, Too Few People (Hardcover)

This book is written for the employers, so if you don't own a business or are not in a high level management, your benefit of reading this book will not be substantial.

My dissatisfaction of this book has to do with high level of alarm this book raises based on speculation. The subtitle of this book is "Too many jobs too few people". Due to the demographics (which is impossible to alter in a short period), it is certain we will have too few people in the work force by 2010. The question is will there be too many jobs by 2010? Even the author concedes it is impossible to forecast the economy in the next 5 years, let alone the next 10. Hence, the author's conclusion of pending doom of massive skilled worker shortage by 2010 is speculative.

In fact, many prominent economists will argue that the economy will falter BADLY after 2010 because the consumer spending will drop like a rock due to the aging population (people over 55 spend considerably less). The actual scenario might be "too few jobs too many people".

Finally, the reliability of author's statistics are somewhat questionable (they are from the government after all). For example, according to the author, there are more than 3 million jobs right now than the number of people to fill them. In reality, however, the job market has been the toughest it has been in years, and many people are being laid off without work for over 6 months or more. When statistics conflict with reality, then ALWAYS trust the reality.

5 of 6 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars On the mark, ahead of the curve..., December 23, 2002

By 

Bob Nelson, Ph.D., author, 1001 Ways to Rewar... (San Diego, CA) - See all my reviews

This review is from: Impending Crisis: Too Many Jobs, Too Few People (Hardcover)

I've been a fan of Roger Herman and his books for many years and once again he shows us the insight of looking to the future, but acting now to make the best of that future when it arrives. During a time when many managers and business owners may be focused solely on survival, Roger and his co-authors, Tom Olivo and Joyce Gioia, show the importance of focusing on current business and management practices that can enhance employee engagement, communication, and recognition and thus improve employee relationships, tenure and recruiting as it becomes an even more significant competitive advantage in years to come. Clearly and persuasively written, I also like that this book includes useful action steps for improving any company's circumstances on its way to becoming an "employer of choice."