Improbable Cause [Mass Market Paperback]

Les Filotas (Author)

Book Description

Publication Date: November 1, 1991

At least 248 American troops didn't make it home for Christmas when the Arrow Air charter flight bringing them home from peacekeeping duties in the Sinai blew up after refueling at Gander, Newfoundland on December 12, 1985 – the worst peacetime military disaster in U.S. history. The Canadian investigators ignored the Islamic Jihad’s claim of terrorist action and suppressed evidence of an in-flight explosion. A slim majority of the investigative board blamed the crash on the crew's inattention to a thin layer of ice on the DC-8's wings. The board disintegrated in controversy after a review by a former supreme court justice roundly rejected the ice theory. Les Filotas, one of the minority who disputed the ice theory, gives a fully-documented insider’s account of the infamous investigation – and of the collapse of a long historical struggle to rid the investigation of aviation accidents of bureaucratic and political entanglements.

--This text refers to the Paperback edition.

Editorial Reviews

Review

"Improbable Cause ... promises on its cover to expose the `deceit and dissent in the investigation.' ... Filotas does that with a devastating accumulation of evidence " -- ROY ROWAN, TIME MAGAZINE (APR. 27, 1992) --This text refers to the Paperback edition.

Product Details

• Mass Market Paperback: 553 pages
• Publisher: Seal Books (November 1, 1991)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0770424880
• ISBN-13: 978-0770424886
• Product Dimensions: 6.8 x 4.2 x 1.5 inches
• Shipping Weight: 9.6 ounces
• Average Customer Review: 4.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (4 customer reviews)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #2,619,732 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

More About the Author

Les Filotas was born in Budapest, Hungary in 1941. He graduated in Engineering Physics from the University of Toronto and started his carrier as an aeronautical engineer at de Havilland Canada. He subsequently obtained advanced degrees from the University of Toronto Institute of Aerospace Studies and taught graduate courses in aeronautical subjects at the University of Maryland and Carleton University. Prior to his appointment to the former Canadian Aviation Safety Board he served as Director of Research and Engineering Development for Civil Aviation in the Canadian Department of Transport. (He is shown here testifying at Congressional hearings on the Gander crash in December 1990.)

Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

2.0 out of 5 stars Many Military Facts Wrong, August 28, 2011

By 

tacfire "FFE" (Fishers, IN United States) - See all my reviews

This review is from: Improbable Cause: Deceit and dissent in the investigation of America's worst military air disaster (Paperback)

Having a personal and professional stake in this tragedy, I'm grateful that Les wrote this book. It sketched out several technical aspects of the crash to which I had no knowledge and guided me as to what to look for.

Les also spells out some names of persons with knowledge from the military angle which were not readily available from other sources and helpful in researching this crash and the surrounding controversies.

However, several parts were factually incorrect. Quick examples:

There were NO Army Special Forces (Green Beret) qualified soldiers among the crash victims. This is easy to check with training and assignment sheet from personnel files (DA 2-1)

Assuming that plain clothes dressed Delta Force soldiers could "slip" on board a packed to capacity aircraft with soldiers and hitch a ride to US is goofy. I never met an Infantry Commander that pull a stunt like that. Besides, the troops left the Sinai in their desert Battle Dress Uniforms (BDUs)

1. Inferring sinister aspects to 3 star General Crosby and that was too craggy to be a staff officer ignores the fact that he was Army Chief of Field Artillery at Ft. Sill, as well as that ALL officers above 2nd Lt. have staff time in their career paths. The DCSPER position was a promotion to 3 stars from St. Sill Command.

2. Crosby never commanded the 101st Airborne, nor did he ever have a command WITHIN the 101st. He was G-3 (Training, Plans and Opns) of 101st at one point.

3. 4-Star General Wickham however, HAD commanded the entire 101st as a two star in 1976.

These may seem minor, but they were easy to check.

as far as the crash:

N950 JW crashed due to 3 intertwined elements, no one of which would have brought the plane down:

1. Reference weight calculations underestimated (est. weight of pax, equip, bags, weapons, batteries, etc.),

2. Engine No 4, overheating, backfiring...power reduced to 53% (which is illegal) on take-off,

3. Loss of ground effect...the added lift aircraft receive by proximity to the ground, estimated .5 x length of wing (67 ft.) Runway slopes downward and slow climbing DC-8 (as were all Arrow Air craft) lost needed lift when wheels left runway and runway dropped away.

Taken together, these 3 contributed to make the plane lose the lift needed to climb.

The left Alerion (left wing flap) was extended by flight crew (confirmed by post crash hydralic examination) to slow the left wing to compensate for Right wing's drag (caused by engine No. 4 fire).

Landing gear was never retracted, which is normally performed 2-3 seconds after lift off.

Flight crew knew past V-1 (take-off abort threshold), that the plane wouldn't fly, so they tried to level out/nose up the aircraft for a belly-landing in the trees...spreading impact over largest surface area for max survivability.

None of this however, explains why the plane exploded when it his the trees, and there were no survivors from a low velocity/low atitude (100+/- feet?) take off crash.

The crash and explosion though, had nothing to do with the "mysterious boxes." The boxes contained classified commo equipment used by soldiers of the 311th Military Intelligence Battalion, assigned to the Task Force. 311th MI personnel among the victims included 3 radar operators and 3 Arabic linguists (one of which was a crypto-linguist).

Intelligence gathering by US troops in the Sinai is now prohibited in accordance with XVIII Airborne Corps directive in 1990.

4.0 out of 5 stars Improbable Cause:, June 22, 2011

By 

ejdick - See all my reviews

This review is from: Improbable Cause: Deceit and dissent in the investigation of America's worst military air disaster (Paperback)

"Improbable Cause" by Les Filotas also deserves to be read for its chroniclling of public administration,regulation and investigation in Canada in the 1980's following the Gander air crash. Its careful and exhaustive documenting of how Canadian authorities did, and did not, investigate the air crash makes it an unique and important study in public administration. He is to be congratulated for his excruciating honesty and openess, that could not have been good for his own career.

5.0 out of 5 stars Arrow Air Disaster, Dec 12, 1985, September 9, 2009

By 

Rodney Gibbons - See all my reviews
(REAL NAME)   

This review is from: Improbable Cause: Deceit and dissent in the investigation of America's worst military air disaster (Paperback)

The Arrow Air disaster of December 12, 1985 in Gander, Newfoundland, is still America's worst military air disaster and the worst aviation accident on Canadian soil in history. It's also still the most contentious. With the twenty-fifth anniversary of the tragedy approaching it may be a good time to read or re-read this thoroughly convincing account of the largely forgotten story behind the tragic events of that day and the shameful cover-up that followed.