Insights in Decision Making: A Tribute to Hillel J. Einhorn [Paperback]

Robin M. Hogarth (Editor)

Book Description

ISBN-10: 0226348563 | ISBN-13: 978-0226348568 | Publication Date: April 18, 1990 | Edition: 1

How do people make decisions? How can we help people make better decisions? How can we best study the processes of decision making? The growing field of behavioral decision research, which seeks to link observed decision behavior to underlying psychological mechanisms, may provide the answers to these questions.

The volume is based on a recent conference held to honor the work and memory of the late Hillel J. Einhorn, a pioneering scholar in behavioral decision research. Composed of contributions by leading researchers, Insights in Decision Making provides a state-of-the-art image of work in this field.

The range of topics covered includes conceptual and technical issues the bridge the gap between theory and the practical concern of improving decision making, difficulties in statistical thinking, experimental studies of processes of judgment and choice, and the emergence of new paradigms for studying decision behavior.

Providing many avenues for future research, Insights in Decision Making will be essential reading for students of the psychology of decision making and will prove valuable to readers in psychology, economics, statistics, and management.

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About the Author

Robin M. Hogarth is the Wallace W. Booth Professor of Behavioral Science at the University of Chicago Graduate School of Business and is the director of the Center for Decision Research. He is coeditor of Rational Choice and author of Judgement and Choice.

Product Details

• Paperback: 370 pages
• Publisher: University Of Chicago Press; 1 edition (April 18, 1990)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0226348563
• ISBN-13: 978-0226348568
• Product Dimensions: 9 x 6 x 0.9 inches
• Shipping Weight: 1.2 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
• Average Customer Review: 3.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (1 customer review)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #2,636,962 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

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3 of 4 people found the following review helpful:

3.0 out of 5 stars The insights into decision making are incomplete and limited, July 14, 2005

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Michael Emmett Brady "mandmbrady" (Bellflower, California ,United States) - See all my reviews
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This review is from: Insights in Decision Making: A Tribute to Hillel J. Einhorn (Paperback)

This book is a collection of essays in honor of Hillel Einhorn ,whose death at the early age of 46 in 1987 is a tragedy.Einhorn's main interest in decision theory(science?) was decision making under uncertainty/ambiguity.Much of his scholarly output was in association with Robin Hogarth,the editor of this book.Both Einhorn and Hogarth were unaware of the work on decision making under uncertainty/ambiguity undertaken by J M Keynes in his A Treatise on Probability(1921;TP)and the informal extension made by Keynes in his 1936 book,The General Theory, as well as the major advances made by D.Ellsberg in his unpublished 1962 dissertation(published in 2001 by Garland Press as "Risk,Ambiguity,and Decision").A reader, who is aware of these sources, can admire the technical exposition of these collected essays(as well as the technical expertise of Einhorn's work)while also recognizing the limited originality of this work in the light of the work of Keynes and Ellsberg.For instance,the main Einhorn-Hogarth model of decision making under ambiguity that allowed for ambiguity preference,as well as avoidance,and incorporated a variable to account for the attitude of the decision maker towards ambiguity,does not represent any significant advance over the "Restricted Bayes/Hurwicz criterion" contained in chapter 7 of Ellsberg(2001,pp.194-202).The essays in this book by Wallsten,Edwards,and Lichtenstein,Slovic,and their coauthors,make for interesting reading ,as does the essay by Payne and his coauthors.Unfortunately,they also contain errors of omission/commission.The assessment made about Keynes's views in the TP by Wallsten are all incorrect(See Wallsten,pp.31-32)and appear to be based on parts of chapter III of the TP only.This is exactly the same error committed by Frank Ramsey in 1922 and 1926 in his error filled reviews of the TP.It is simply false to state,as Wallsten does,that"Keynes suggested that it would occasionally be possible to put bounds on numerical probabilities...in which case...the probability is only known vaguely."(Wallsten,p.32).The vast majority of Keynesian probabilities are interval estimates.Similarly, the claim that "...virtually all decision theories share the idea that degrees of uncertainty can be represented uniquely and numerically by a probability measure..."(Wallsten,p.32)means that the message of Ellsberg(who uses sets of probability distributions) and Keynes has still not gotten through yet.