Customer Reviews

Interest, Growth & Inflation (Fraser Publishing Library)

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This small book is so rich in insight and elegant in expression. This is the man who predated the M&M theorem, and gave proof of it in 2 sentences. I really felt I had a better grasp of economics, and its intuition, particular to the US with dominating mortgage-market.

One thing I found intriguing was how he injects a little of his own perspective and recollection through economic cycles: from the depression era when he was working on his Doctorate at Harvard, through more recent times.

His thinking is refreshing and different. He considers an alternative theory of interest based on inner workings of the banking industry, mortgage market, and very visceral market mechanisms (vs expectations hypothesis, liquidity hypothesis etc etc..)

His theory of interest is uncanny and portent over many decades of falling rates, and housing bust.

As it relates to today I think my personal conclusion would be long-rates should continue to fall beyond 2010 (I personally think close to zero real-rates), and before mortgage loan-growth recovers, and before long-rates rise again. The theory is interesting. I've done well for myself so far this year (but others may interpret contemporaneous data differently).

Besides, you should find the nuggets of insight plentiful and profound. Over any textbook, I'd recommend this for any person interested in how the capital markets work, Economics and Finance.

Undispensable steps to become a master in value investings : John Burr Williams is one of the Warren Buffet's 3 mentors.