An Introduction to Bayesian Inference and Decision, Second Edition [Hardcover]

Robert Winkler (Author)

Book Description

ISBN-10: 0964793849 | ISBN-13: 978-0964793842 | Publication Date: January 15, 2003 | Edition: 2nd

The 2nd Edition of Dr. Winkler's classic book, first published in 1972, includes access to electronic files, Perspectives, and updated material. However, the basic concepts of Bayesian inference and decision have not really changed. This book gives a foundation in the concepts, enables readers to understand the results of Bayesian inference and decision, provides tools to model real-world problems and carry out basic analyses, and prepares readers for further exploration.

Editorial Reviews

Review

"...very well written and organized introduction to the Bayesian approach to statistical decision theory...many examples..." -- Debbie Nelson Antanaitis, Manager, Portfolio and Decision Analysis, Pfizer

"Everyone...in statistical and decision sciences should read this book...Winkler has captured the foundation of modern quantitative decision making." --Gary Bush, Founder and Managing Director, Decision Strategies, Inc.

From the Publisher

Three years ago at a Decision Analysis Affinity Group conference (DAAG), a panel of experts was asked, "What is the best book on Bayesian probability?" The answer from the panel was united, "Bob Winkler's book...but it is out of print." We're very pleased to be able to provide the 2nd edition of this significant work!

See all Editorial Reviews

Product Details

• Hardcover: 464 pages
• Publisher: Probabilistic Publishing; 2nd edition (January 15, 2003)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0964793849
• ISBN-13: 978-0964793842
• Product Dimensions: 10.2 x 7.1 x 1 inches
• Shipping Weight: 2.4 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
• Average Customer Review: 4.5 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (2 customer reviews)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #534,465 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

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Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

44 of 44 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Get Past The Title... This Is A Key Reference Book, July 22, 2003

By 

W. J. Haskett "bhaskett" - See all my reviews
(REAL NAME)   

This review is from: An Introduction to Bayesian Inference and Decision, Second Edition (Hardcover)

Not only is this a top notch instruction tool from a well-respected author, but for anyone whose work or interests lay in the risk and decision analysis field, this is a "must have" reference book. It may seem oxymoronic to say that a book on statistical inference, "probability", or Bayesian methods is interesting, but that is exactly what the author has achieved. Winkler makes what many of us may view to be a complex and intimidating topic understandable and enables practical implementation of the concepts. More than just a simple re-printing, the second edition provides updated references, additional readings and assessments of developments in the chapter scope since the first edition.

The initial chapter in the book provides an introduction to probabilistic thought and Bayes' theorem. Following chapters deal with discrete and continuous distributions, decision theory (practical applications...including influencing factors such as utility and subjective probability), Value of Information, and Bayesian approaches to hypothesis testing (quite meaningful for six-sigma thinkers, efficient resource appraisal decisions, and other business applications).

Practitioners will have to get past the rather academic title. If you model or work with uncertainty distributions, dependency, correlation, or contingent portfolio analysis, this book will provide the necessary conceptual understanding that will save you time and allow you to provide a better, more valid product.

The CD that accompanies the book provides standard reference tables and work-throughs for many of the problems/examples. All figures found in the book are included as are all chapter exercises (MS Word format). It also provides trial versions of decision software such as Lumina's Analytica (object based simulation) and TreeAge's Data (decision trees). A series of distribution generators are included as a plus for those of us who have a simulation modeling bent.

There is folklore that is tied this title. So well received was the first edition that rumors persist regarding people resorting to beaten up photocopies of the book. You don't have to do that anymore.

4 of 11 people found the following review helpful:

4.0 out of 5 stars Bayesian Inference and Decision, August 20, 2005

By 

James E. Rose "old timer" (Maryland USA) - See all my reviews
(REAL NAME)   

This review is from: An Introduction to Bayesian Inference and Decision, Second Edition (Hardcover)

This is definitely useful for someone going for an MBA or other managerial degree. I would not have been able to do my class assignment without it. I am taking a graduate course in Statistics and this reference may help me achieve an A.