Customer Reviews

An Introduction to Bayesian Inference and Decision, Second Edition

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Not only is this a top notch instruction tool from a well-respected author, but for anyone whose work or interests lay in the risk and decision analysis field, this is a "must have" reference book. It may seem oxymoronic to say that a book on statistical inference, "probability", or Bayesian methods is interesting, but that is exactly what the author has achieved. Winkler makes what many of us may view to be a complex and intimidating topic understandable and enables practical implementation of the concepts. More than just a simple re-printing, the second edition provides updated references, additional readings and assessments of developments in the chapter scope since the first edition.

The initial chapter in the book provides an introduction to probabilistic thought and Bayes' theorem. Following chapters deal with discrete and continuous distributions, decision theory (practical applications...including influencing factors such as utility and subjective probability), Value of Information, and Bayesian approaches to hypothesis testing (quite meaningful for six-sigma thinkers, efficient resource appraisal decisions, and other business applications).

Practitioners will have to get past the rather academic title. If you model or work with uncertainty distributions, dependency, correlation, or contingent portfolio analysis, this book will provide the necessary conceptual understanding that will save you time and allow you to provide a better, more valid product.

The CD that accompanies the book provides standard reference tables and work-throughs for many of the problems/examples. All figures found in the book are included as are all chapter exercises (MS Word format). It also provides trial versions of decision software such as Lumina's Analytica (object based simulation) and TreeAge's Data (decision trees). A series of distribution generators are included as a plus for those of us who have a simulation modeling bent.

There is folklore that is tied this title. So well received was the first edition that rumors persist regarding people resorting to beaten up photocopies of the book. You don't have to do that anymore.

This is definitely useful for someone going for an MBA or other managerial degree. I would not have been able to do my class assignment without it. I am taking a graduate course in Statistics and this reference may help me achieve an A.