Customer Reviews

An Introduction to Intelligence Research and Analysis (Scarecrow Professional Intelligence Education Series)

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An Introduction to Intelligence Research and Analysis

This book reads so well that it almost feels like if it was not an educational material. The author has a great gift to present the topic clearly and briefly; even a thoroughbred would understand the point (ShyBoy's comment: Mustangs do not consider thoroughbreds the most intellectually gifted ponies, as they tend to shoot out without thinking). I would recommend this book to everyone who intends to write a more complex work based on any type of research, and make valid conclusions based on it. Lot of effort can get wasted, and conclusions can be flawed if the research is not done right. Systematic search of newly available information in various archives and consequent rigorous analysis of obtained information for studies in history would be a perfect example of use of this textbook outside the intelligence community.

The book is useful to anyone who has to deal with data sets and confirmation or disconfirmation of hypotheses. The basic rules relating to research, reasoning, data handling, bias, and intellectual honesty may seem obvious, but reminding of essential truths does no harm. The advice provided is very practical, based on experience and deep understanding of the mind of an average researcher (a curious geek). Some logical exercise is included in chapters which relate to basic concepts of intelligence analysis, introduction to quantitative statistical techniques, methodologies, and models.

The range of techniques presented in the part relating to prediction and forecasting is quite wide. It is interesting to see hard science methods used on social science and political intelligence. Valid predictions have got to be based on correctly conducted research and well formulated hypotheses. In other words, sloppy data collection and design flaws in analytic methods will only result in pointless conclusions which have no validity.

This book is an essential guide for everyone who is serious about meaningful intellectual work. The rules can be applied to any so-called soft science, from political science, to behavioral sciences and sociology, and most importantly, historical studies and biographies.