An Introduction to Probability and Inductive Logic (Paperback)

~ Ian Hacking (Author) "Most of the main ideas about probability come up right at the beginning..." (more)
Key Phrases: conditional betting rate, ballet lottery, frequency dogmatists, Odd Question, Alert Learner, David Hume (more...)

Editorial Reviews

Review

"Hacking's textbook is likely to become the standard for inductive logic courses. He writes simply, in a lively style, without oversimplification. it starts at the beginning, and throughout uses only the simplest calculations. As it goes on, tools including P-values, confidence intervals, expected values, the basics of decision theory, and Bayesianism are introduced with mathematical honesty and refreshing philosophical scrutiny. Lively and original examples drawn from everyday life create the appropriate context to prepare students to think critically about the barrage of statisical arguments that confront us on a daily basis. From Madison Avenue's "4 out of 5 dentists choose..." to highly sophisticated economic modeling we poll and make prophecies based on statistical information regularly. Hacking's textbook sheds much needed light on the mystique reasoning." Katherine van Uum, Grinnell College, Iowa

"While written as an introductory text, it is full of philosophical wisdom. Moreover, this is wisdom that most students of philosophy need but find very hard to acquire. Hacking explains all the basic ideas of probability theory, the philosophical puzzles they raise, the standard lines of response, their strengths and weaknesses. He writes with the authority of someone who has helped form the debates and understands everything properly, but at the same time he gives a fair hearing to all positions worth taking seriously. At some point in the career of most philosophy students, graduates and undergraduates alike, they read stuff, which uses probalistic ideas and turn to their teachers for guidance. I can imagine that the teachers' automatic response for some decades to come will be to send these students to Hacking." David Papineau, King's College, London

Review

"While written as an introductory text, it is full of philosophical wisdom. Moreover, this is wisdom that most students of philosophy need but find very hard to acquire. Hacking explains all the basic ideas of probability theory, the philosophical puzzles they raise, the standard lines of response, their strengths and weaknesses. He writes with the authority of someone who has helped form the debates and understands everything properly, but at the same time he gives a fair hearing to all positions worth taking seriously. At some point in the career of most philosophy students, graduates and undergraduates alike, they read stuff, which uses probalistic ideas and turn to their teachers for guidance. I can imagine that the teachers' automatic response for some decades to come will be to send these students to Hacking." David Papineau, King's College, London

"Hacking's textbook is likely to become the standard for inductive logic courses. He writes simply, in a lively style, without oversimplification. it starts at the beginning, and throughout uses only the simplest calculations. As it goes on, tools including P-values, confidence intervals, expected values, the basics of decision theory, and Bayesianism are introduced with mathematical honesty and refreshing philosophical scrutiny. Lively and original examples drawn from everyday life create the appropriate context to prepare students to think critically about the barrage of statisical arguments that confront us on a daily basis. From Madison Avenue's "4 out of 5 dentists choose..." to highly sophisticated economic modeling we poll and make prophecies based on statistical information regularly. Hacking's textbook sheds much needed light on the mystique reasoning." Katherine van Uum, Grinnell College, Iowa --This text refers to the Hardcover edition.

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Product Details

• Paperback: 320 pages
• Publisher: Cambridge University Press (July 2, 2001)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0521775019
• ISBN-13: 978-0521775014
• Product Dimensions: 9.9 x 7 x 0.7 inches
• Shipping Weight: 1.5 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
• Average Customer Review: 4.6 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (8 customer reviews)
• Amazon.com Sales Rank: #89,166 in Books (See Bestsellers in Books)

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Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

28 of 31 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars For anyone, any thinker, June 6, 2002

By	Steven Bucuvalas (Buffalo Creek, CO United States) - See all my reviews (REAL NAME)

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I would HIGHLY recommend this book for anyone (including business men) who must make decisions with incomplete information and under uncertainty. Instead of focusing on the mechanics of statistics, it focuses on how to think about risky propositions.

I bought this book while working on a particular problem in machine learning, at a point where I had started realizing that I was losing clarity on my definition of probability. I was using the mechanics, but didn't clearly understand why the use was valid. This seemed an odd and embarrassing circumstance at the time, how could I not understand what "probability" means? As it turns out this confusion is one shared broadly in history of science, and in current applications of statistical mechanics.

Prof Hacking's writing is clear and entertaining, clearly aimed at engaging the reading audience.

32 of 37 people found the following review helpful:

4.0 out of 5 stars What do you mean, "probably"?, February 14, 2002

By	Berel Dov Lerner (Western Galilee College, Israel) - See all my reviews (REAL NAME)

The best thing about this book is that it teachs basic probability theory while keeping the reader constantly aware of the on-going debate regarding what it means to talk in terms of probabilities, and of how that debate has shaped the development of probability theory. If you are a student taking a course in probability and statistics who would like to genuinely understand the conceptual basis of all those formulas they are teaching you, I suggest you read this book.

Some readers will be disappointed by this book. Since the book concentrates on the conceptual basis of probability and inductive logic, it does not give the reader enough technical tools to really do much applied mathematics. On the other hand, by the time Hacking gets around to discussing what students of philosophy will likely view as the big philosophical pay-off of probability theory (i.e. Bayesian and frequentist contributions to the problem of justifying induction) he devotes to them a mere 20 pages of not terribly deep discussion.

10 of 10 people found the following review helpful:

4.0 out of 5 stars Especially good on Bayesianism and Frequentism, June 14, 2007

By	SL (Los Angeles, CA) - See all my reviews

(FOUR AND A HALF STARS)
This is more an intro to the PHILOSOPHY of probability and inductive logic than an intro to the MATHEMATICS of probability of inductive logic, although some of the basic mathematical ideas are covered (which is useful if you're gonna discuss the philosophy). Do not get this book if you're just looking for a typical mathematical intro to statistics. But DO get this book if you want to know about the foundations of Bayesianism or are interested in the Frequentists vs. Bayesian debate. It is the best intro out there on the Frequentists/Bayesians issue, and it is extremely helpful for someone who is trying to get a handle on Bayesian reasoning. Also, those who are more into the mathematical aspects of probability could find this book useful in giving them a wider perspective on the subject. On the whole, it's clearly written and fun to read, although it is not an "easy" book. A basic knowledge of probability theory and some initial grasp of induction are good to have before reading this. But overall, it's highly recommended for those who want to know about the conceptual underpinnings of probability/induction in general, and Bayesian and Frequentism specifically.