Customer Reviews

The Iran Threat: President Ahmadinejad and the Coming Nuclear Crisis

5 star:		(18)
4 star:		(3)
3 star:		(0)
2 star:		(0)
1 star:		(4)

 

 

Alireza Jafarzadeh has written an excellent, eye opening, examination of the Iranian regime and its attempts to acquire a nuclear bomb. This book changed my perspective in multiple ways, and is still an extremely important work even three years after its publication in hardback and two years after it first appeared in paperback.

Jafarzadeh isn't simply a policy analyst who doesn't have direct connections with Iran, as he illustrates throughout the book he has many contacts within Iran and multiple ways to get, and confirm, intelligence. In this book Jafarzadeh does not simply confine his analysis to the Iranian attempts to acquire a nuclear bomb under the leadership of President Ahmadinejad, he analyzes the Iranian attempts to acquire the bomb ever since the earliest days of the regime during the Iran-Iraq war under the leadership of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. Jafarzadeh also does an excellent job of showing how Khomeini and the leadership of the Iranian revolution clearly did not install the kind of government they'd promised before taking power, and it's clearly not the kind of regime the Iranian people want. Jafarzadeh illustrates numerous anti-regime demonstrations in Iran throughout the years. He also places the most recent outbreak of anti-Ahmadinejad demonstrations in context. The Iranians are, quite clearly, not simply angry their most recent election was stole from them, but that Ahmadinejad's first election was also marked by clear fraud on the part of the Iranian regime. Ahmadinejad in his first election finished third, until the Guardian Council "found" an additional one million ballots after the Interior Ministry had announced results that the Guardian Council clearly did not like. Given this context, the explosion in political demonstrations after the most recent election is not surprising. This is the kind of context that the news media does not usually provide.

Jafarzadeh's discussion of the role of Iran in Iraq since the American-led overthrow of Saddam Hussein completely changed my perspective on that war. Saddam was an evil dictator, but he was by far less dangerous to the world than the Iranian regime. The Iranian regime is dedicated to establishing an Islamic government world wide, starting in Iraq. Jafarzadeh uses the Iranian constitution as well as secret documents written by the Iranian regime to show just how involved Iran is in Iraq, and the problems that involvement has caused both the American and other coalition forces.

Jafarzadeh's book gets a little slow during some of the technical discussion of what Iran has done in their attempts to acquire the bomb, which is a drawback for those not previously versed in the science of nuclear weapons or nuclear energy. He concludes with a chapter illustrating what he believes to be the different options for the United States and the world in dealing with Iran. He quite quickly rules out a military option because, has he shows throughout much of the book, Iran's nuclear facilities are far too widespread and well protected underground for a military operation to work. Iran's nuclear ambitions cannot be thwarted with a single strike, such as Israel's strike on Iraq's nuclear weapons program during the 1980's.

Other than how slow the book gets during the technical discussion of Iran's nuclear program as it was when Jafarzadeh wrote the book, his writing style also leaves a bit to be desired at times. On occasion he turns a very odd phrase, but otherwise the writing is pretty solid.

This book really changed my view on how important it is for the United States and the world to take a very hard line stance against the current Iranian regime.

The Iran Threat is a fairly comprehensive and well-referenced book
on the Iranian mullahs' nuclear program. I became interested in
reading the book partly because of the strong reviews it has
received by distinguished individuals, but also because of the
significance of the topic itself.

The author, Mr. Jafarzadeh, is an authoritative figure on Iran, on
the Iranian mullahs' nuclear plans, and on the Iranian mullahs'
involvement in international terrorism and nowadays the destructive
role they play in destabilizing Iraq.

Mr. Jafarzadeh was indeed the first to reveal the mullahs' nuclear
program in 2002; he was also the original source in exposing many of
the Iranian mullahs terror acts, for example, the bombing of a
Jewish center in Argentine in 1994. Thus he has earned his
reputation as a well-informed and reliable source.

The book is organized in five parts. Each part is divided into
multiple chapters. A brief review of each part follows:

I. A Study in Terror. This part is organized in three chapters in
which a comprehensive background is provided of the Iranian mullahs
internal repression, the so-called" reform movement and its role in
Ahmadinejad's rise, and the true meaning of Ahmadinejad's
"presidency." Detailed, entertaining, and well-documented background
is provided.

II. Iran's Grand Plan. The author elaborates on the Iranian' regime
fundamentalism ideology and its plans to impose a backward "Islamic"
rule on Middle East and elsewhere. This part is well-referenced and
numerous examples, quoting the mullahs' officials, are given. We
learn that we cannot ignore Ahmadinejad's rhetoric like his desire
to wipe out Israel. He and the mullahs are very serious in expressing
their wishes.

III. The Secret Insurgency. This part reviews the mullahs' terror
network in Iraq (which is widely exposed). The author provides
details of the flow of Iranian Revolutionary Guards and infiltrators
into Iraq. Staggering but well-referenced numbers are given.

IV. March to the Bomb. Here the author discusses the mullahs'
history of deception, extensive militarizations, concealment and
lack of cooperation with the international community, and
Ahmadinejad's role in advancing the mullahs race for the bomb.

V. If and When. The author discusses the consequences of a nuclear
Iran and defines a viable Iran policy that will result in change in
Iran but without military confrontations.

The last chapter converges with an important question: how to deal
with the mullahs? The author is inherently against war and military
confrontations (he gives many reasons throughout the book why war is
not an acceptable or viable option). The author also gives many
reasons why engagement/appeasement will fail (look what happened
during the Khatami's "moderate" presidency and all the support it
received from the international: many authors were murdered in
serial killings, more women were stoned to death, the mullahs'
nuclear program was accelerated, and the road for Ahmadinejad's
presidency was paved).

A better solution, according to the author, is to isolate the
mullahs and support the Iranian people and their struggle for
democracy. The author discusses the mechanisms.

This book is an important contribution to the current political
affairs in Iran. It is well-referenced. In my opinion, no
meaningful discussion about Iran can take place without considering
this book warnings and the author's suggestions for a solution to
Tehran's threats.

This is a spirited, urgent and sage call for sanity in approaching the emerging Iran problem from a Fox News Middle East analyst, and ex-patriot. While not always the most balanced of renditions, the author's background makes him well positioned to have a firm grasp on the meaning of the history of the region, a sordid history that he clearly believes has led to the present international crisis over Iran's emerging nuclear capability. And while he speaks from the platform offered up to him by the hard right end of the U.S. political spectrum, he is by no means just a "parrot" of the Fox News party line.

His main points are all well-developed and worth serious reflection. They are that: (1) the larger threat, the unanticipated rise of an undemocratic Islamic revolution with Iran emerging as the regional hegemon, is in the main a U.S creation; (2) far from restoring stability to the region, invading Iraq, has actually tipped the balance of power in the direction of the radical and reactionary Mullahs; (3) sitting on its enormous oil reserves (and away from the limelight of the American media) Iran, unlike the U.S. and Israel, has been busy building enduring international economic alliances with the emerging powers of Asia; in particular real politics with with Russia, China, and India are likely to bear fruit; (4) U.S. short-sighted policies in the region, have come back to haunt us, long-term -- now boxing us and our erstwhile ally, Israel, as well as the moderate forces within Iran, into a narrow set of unpalatable and ultimately self-defeating options; and (5) that while pre-emptively taking out Iran's embryonic nuclear program seems to be the only robust (but not entirely sensible) option remaining for the U.S. or for Israel, it is far from cost free, but is one likely to end in an international debacle of the likes of the fiasco in Iraq; (6) however, allowing Iran to develop its nuclear weapons, is even a far worse option; and (7) that whatever happens, time and the forces of history seem to be on Iran's side.

The author makes no bones about identifying the ultimate sources of the current crisis as the long term damaging effects of the CIA overthrow of the democratically elected government of Iran, that of Mossadeq, and the fact that the international community "winked" at the development of Israel's own nuclear weapons, resulting in a dramatic increase in insecurity in the region and a failure to develop a nuclear weapons free zone that may have been able to stem the tide of nuclear weapons' development in the Middle East.

He carefully points out that it was the overthrow of that Mossadeq government that led to our support of the hero of the 1979 Iranian revolution, the Allatollah Khominei, the same hero that we had to later denounce, and who later also denounced us as "the Great Satan," and who is now responsible for the current very unpopular regime that is on the verge of testing its first nuclear weapon.

Although ambivalent about what will and will not work -- all options have serious "down sides" -- the author still, if only instinctively opts for a non-confrontational approach. As part of the conclusions, State Department Arms control Czar, Robert G. Joseph's seven reasons why Iran should not be allowed to develop the bomb are quoted, but Joseph too offers only anemic suggestions on what to do.

There is a great deal here to chew on, much insider history on the ebbing-and-flowing on internal Iranian politics and the book is well documented enough to serve as not only food for thought for the casual reader, but also as good reference material for experts doing research on nuclear weapons issues in the region.

Four stars

The Iran Threat by Alireza Jafarzadeh offers an extensive political history of modern Iran with a special emphasis on why it poses a threat to the Western world. In particular, this book offers detailed information on Iran's uranium enrichment activities and a deluge of facts corroborating why Iran's activites are surely not for peaceful purposes. This book also details the structure of the government of Iran, a brief history of the Iranian Revolution and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's professed infatuation with the ideals of the Iranian Revolution. In terms of presenting a large amount of facts against Iran, there is much value to gain in reading this book.

This book is written by the very terrorism expert who blew the whistle on Iran's underground uranium enrichment program back in 2002. The author is an Iranian exile, a Middle Eastern affairs analyst and a Fox News Foreign Affairs Analyst. He is also the president of Strategic Policy Consulting Inc. in Washington D.C. and is also the former media director for the Washington D.C. office of the parliament-in-exile, the National Council of Resistance in Iran (NCRI). This guy is probably one of the foremost experts on what is happening in Iran.

The author details many important points regarding the Islamic Republic including:
* The Iranian Revolution of 1979 and how Ayatollah Khomeini converted Iran into a brutally fanatical theocracy.
* Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's shadowy rise to power, his regular meetings with Ayatollah Khomeini as a student and his connection with the student organization that helped orchestrate the 1979 hostage crisis.
* The oppressive, anti-Western reforms of the Ahmadinejad regime.
* The stated radical and globally ambitious ideology of the Iranian mullahs.
* Iran's role in the Iraqi insurgency.
* The history and present capability of Iran's Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Nuclear Weapons Capability.
* The extensive measures Iran has made to defend their underground enrichment facilities (e.g., spreading them out, placing them deep underground, strategically positioning anti-aircraft technology).

Jafarzadeh also offers his opinion on what policy actions should be taken against Iran. Despite making a few decent observations. Jafarzadeh does identify that the current theocratic regime must go and that it is "beyond negotiation". He promotes "regime change", specifically meaning handing over the keys of Iran to the NCRI. According to their platform on their website, the NCRI stands for the separation of Church and State, capitalism, private investment, human and minority rights, free speech, freedom of the press, freedom of religion and democratic elections. This sounds like a considerable improvement over the current Iranian regime. However, the NCRI's leadership is intertwined with that of the militant group MEK, which has several cultish/irrational aspects. Thus, Jafarzadeh's proposed solution seems unfortunately more pragmatic than principled.

Another significant concern of mine is that, although this work is dense with citations, the author often attributes vital information to "his sources", which makes it difficult to accept this information as truth. However, we also must recognize the reality of the author's situation, as he is probably not able to safely reveal all of his sources at the time of his writing. These vague attributions are not too frequent, and when they are made, the allegations are consistent with the overall character of the Iranian regime. As a whole, I think the factual content of this book is pretty sound.

In summary, I highly recommend this book for its factual content, especially to those with strong interests in foreign policy who are seeking a deeper understanding of the threat that Iran poses.

This timely book is the only one that explores Ahmadinejad's history, his current policies, and Tehran's vision for the future. With unrivaled access to the intelligence networks of Iran's dissident groups, Alireza Jafarzadeh gives a higly detailed account of Tehran's role in Iraq and its pursuit of nuclear weapons. Crucially, Jafarzadeh also provides concrete policy options for responding to Iran's terrorist activities and suppression of its own population.

Necessary reading for anyone wishing to understand Iran, Iraq, and the Middle East.

It is about time that we see books like this on the market.
Every American needs to read this book to understand the real threat of Tehran's regime. The author clearly shows that Iran's threat is not just limited to its nuclear threat. For too long we have been fixated on the nuclear issue and failed to see Ahmadinejad's regime's full picture that includes ideological drive and regional hegemony.
I now understand fully why Jafarzadeh exposed the nuclear threat. This book tells me we are dealing with a much bigger danger than a nuclear bomb and as an Iranian, I consider Jafarzadeh a courageous and patriot who took this issue on and brought it to light.
Jafarzedeh...you've got my vote, thank you and good job.

This is the best book on Iran at the strategic level - period. There is nothing else that comes close. If you are interested in peace in the middle east then read this book. Mr Jafarzadeh helps us to understand the threat coming from Tehran. Theme of the book is fascinating. He is proponent of regime change and yet opponent to war.
I highly recommend this book as a fresh look into the Iran's Nuclear program, constantly taking the reader into unexpected areas and populated with facts.Hats off to the author.

This is a must read for any serious policy maker and political
analyst interested in Iran and the middle east. It is also an excellent
resource for political science students majoring in middle east.

But most importantly, this is a must book for all Iranians interested in
and concerned for the future of their country. The book is entitled "The
Iran Threat" but the real victims of the threat are foremost the Iranian
people. Thus it is very important to understand what the threat is and
how it can be avoided.

After listening to the author in a number of TV programs (e.g.,
C-SPAN, the CNN's Lou Dobbs) I became quite intrigued by the
author's genuine and deep sentiments against a military
confrontation with the Iranian regime. He quite expertly articulated
why war isn't an option. I then purchased the book to see his
reasonings.

And yes, the author provides a comprehensive review of the Iranian
mullahs' nuclear projects (recall that he was the ONE who revealed
all of these in 2002) and their plans to impose their backward
interpretation of Islam on others. Jafarzadeh provides extensive
quotations from the Iranian officials who aren't shy about
revealing their plans and wishes.

The Iranian regime and its lobbyists/apologists will not tolerate
this book. They wont be able to rebut/refute the contents, as it is
a well-documented and well-referenced book. Furthermore, the book
has received many sound approvals from well-known individuals, both
in the US and abroad. Thus the Tehran agents will inevitably have to
resort to their usual content-less character assassination and
distortion of the facts.

I find this book an objective and very well documented study over Iran, Iraq, and the path that lies ahead of that region of the world. The book is a powerful expose of the undercurrent of events in Iraq and Iran. It argues in clear terms for alerting the world about Iran's secret program and mean to use it and how Iran's support for terrorism.
It is a carefully footnoted book, and a valuable one that can be used well by scholars of the situation and by people who simply want to know more about one of the most important syndromes of our times.

Jafarzadeh's account of Iran's mischief-making, heightened since Ahmadinejad's presidency, is well-constructed and makes a compelling case for the urgency of international efforts to isolate Tehran rulers. His book, `the Iran Threat,' is filled with details it nevertheless gives a very consistent bird's eye view of the multi-faceted and multi-pronged threats posed by Iran. What makes Jafarzadeh's book stand out is that he is not just a long-distance analyst of Iran in Washington. He has been in the political trenches of efforts to deal with Iran's nuclear issue and its meddling in Iraq. Jafarzadeh's policy recommendations are courageous, bold, refreshing, and, most importantly, specific. He urges policymakers to go above and beyond the either-war-or-appeasement debate. A staunch believer in the vast - albeit mostly untapped - potentials of Iranian opposition, Jafarzadeh sees democratic change possible in Iran without the need for foreign military action or the shame of succumbing to appeasement of tyrant ayatollahs. Jafarzadeh's groundbreaking revelations on Iran's nuclear program, later confirmed by the IAEA's inspectors and other international nuclear agencies, set in motion a series of international diplomatic efforts to stop this program. In retrospect, given the extent of danger posed by a would-be nuclear-armed Iran, Jafarzadeh's 2002 revelations could very well be viewed as a pivotal contribution to peace and security in the world, and to the best national interests of Iranian people.