Irrational Exuberance: (Second Edition) and over one million other books are available for Amazon Kindle. Learn more
Qty:1
  • List Price: $35.00
  • Save: $13.77 (39%)
FREE Shipping on orders over $35.
Only 8 left in stock (more on the way).
Ships from and sold by Amazon.com.
Gift-wrap available.
Add to Cart
Want it Monday, April 21? Order within and choose One-Day Shipping at checkout. Details
FREE Shipping on orders over $35.
Condition: Used: Good
Comment: Book in standard good condition. Binding tight and intact. Pages clean. May contain varying degrees of edge wear, curled corners, slightly soiled page edges, dog-eared pages, creasing of covers, etc. Overall, book is in solid good condition. Eligible for PRIME & FREE SHIPPING! We greatly appreciate your business!
Add to Cart
Have one to sell?
Flip to back Flip to front
Listen Playing... Paused   You're listening to a sample of the Audible audio edition.
Learn more

Irrational Exuberance: (Second Edition) Hardcover


See all 6 formats and editions Hide other formats and editions
Amazon Price New from Used from Collectible from
Kindle
"Please retry"
Hardcover
"Please retry"
$21.23
$14.90 $5.58 $18.11

Frequently Bought Together

Irrational Exuberance: (Second Edition) + Manias, Panics and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises, Sixth Edition + S & L Hell: The People and the Politics Behind the $1 Trillion Savings and Loan Scandal
Price for all three: $54.61

Buy the selected items together

NO_CONTENT_IN_FEATURE

Image
Looking for the Audiobook Edition?
Tell us that you'd like this title to be produced as an audiobook, and we'll alert our colleagues at Audible.com. If you are the author or rights holder, let Audible help you produce the audiobook: Learn more at ACX.com.

Product Details

  • Hardcover: 336 pages
  • Publisher: Princeton University Press; Second Edition edition (March 14, 2005)
  • Language: English
  • ISBN-10: 0691123357
  • ISBN-13: 978-0691123356
  • Product Dimensions: 9.5 x 6.4 x 1.2 inches
  • Shipping Weight: 1.4 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
  • Average Customer Review: 4.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (119 customer reviews)
  • Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #135,999 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

Editorial Reviews

Amazon.com Review

Sequels often disappoint when compared to their predecessors, but author Robert Shiller has proved the exception to the rule with his second edition of Irrational Exuberance. When the original book released in 2000, Shiller's prescient analysis of bubble-like market behavior provided perspective on the painful meltdown of stock-price valuations that subsequently occurred. Five years later, the Yale professor's bearish predictions about real-estate valuations are enough to give any savvy investor or homebuyer pause.

Shiller is one of several well-known economists and pundits who've begun a running dialogue in the last few years around the drawbacks of unchecked free markets. Few writers, though, dissect the phenomenon of bubble behavior as clearly and thoroughly as Shiller does. As with the first edition of his book, Shiller begins this one with reams of quantitative data around the late 1990s stock-market runup. This new edition adds data on real-estate price trends in the early 2000s, and points out the striking parallels between the earlier stock-market boom and bust, and current trends with housing prices in the United States. Shiller actually believes the two phenomena are related; as investors lost confidence in the stock market and moved their money into real estate, one asset class fell while the other rose. According to Shiller's analysis, the pattern is destined to repeat itself.

Aside from the initial data, the real strength of Irrational Exuberance is the straightforward, almost clinical way in which it explains why things happen as they do. The book walks readers through structural reasons for market bubbles, then ventures into "softer" analyses which professional economists less confident than Shiller would be scared to touch. It examines cultural factors behind market bubbles, such as hype-mongering news media, and psychological factors, such as herd behavior.

Another improvement in this latest edition of Shiller's book is his inclusion of more personal commentary, and he mentions the influence that his wife, herself a clinical psychologist, has had on his intellectual development and his view of psychological impacts on economic behavior. Other personal insights from Shiller center on experiences he had while touring and lecturing around the first book, and some of the most interesting passages are those in which he describes common questions or feedback from his audience, and what he thought in reaction--but didn't voice while on his tour.

In the end, Shiller closes his book with an intriguing set of policy proposals. He argues for a revamping of the U.S. social security system, a new system of house-price insurance for homeowners, and risk reduction through portfolio diversification. Fans of the brainy academic will note with approval that Shiller practices what he preaches: he has begun trying to implement some of his ideas in the real world through two private consulting firms he has founded, Macro Securities Research and Macro Financial. The hope is if Shiller's as correct with this second book as he was with his first, readers will all learn something from these new companies. --Peter Han

Review

Robert J. Shiller, Co-Winner of the 2013 Nobel Prize in Economics

Winner of the 2000 Commonfund Prize for the Best Contribution to Endowment Management Research

From review of Princeton's previous edition: "Robert J. Shiller . . . has done more than any other economist of his generation to document the less rational aspects of financial markets."--Paul Krugman, New York Times

From review of Princeton's previous edition: "Irrational Exuberance is not just a prophecy of doom. . . . [I]t is a serious attempt to explain how speculative bubbles come about and how they sustain themselves."--John Cassidy, New Yorker

From review of Princeton's previous edition: "Informative and well-argued . . . A calm and reasonable antidote to today's euphoria."--Jeff Madrick, New York Review of Books

From review of Princeton's previous edition: "What set off this speculation and what feeds it? Shiller ranges widely his explanations, laying them out in the first 168 pages in easy-to-read, sometimes passionate prose. . . . [T]hose first 168 pages are must reading for anyone with savings invested in stocks."--Louis Uchitelle, New York Times Book Review

From review of Princeton's previous edition: "Mr. Shiller's book offers a dose of realism. . . . [I]t presents a message investors would be wise to head: Make sure your portfolio is adequately diversified. Save more and don't count on double-digit gains of the past decades continuing to bail you out during retirement."--Burton G. Malkiel, Wall Street Journal

From review of Princeton's previous edition: "Although its message may be unwelcome to many, this important book should be read by anyone interested in economics or the stock markets."--Rene M. Stulz, Science

From review of Princeton's previous edition: "Dazzling, richly textured, provocative . . By far the most important book about the stock market since Jeremy J. Siegel's Stocks for the Long Run."--William Wolman, Business Week

From review of Princeton's previous edition: "Shiller has provided an accessible guide to the usually impenetrable literature on financial markets, especially the American stock market."--Foreign Affairs

From review of Princeton's previous edition: "Shiller contends that investor psychology is so given to herd behavior that it's almost impossible to manipulate or even influence. The market can 'go through significant mispricing lasting years or even decades.'"--Robert J. Samuelson, Washington Post

From review of Princeton's previous edition: "Irrational Exuberance should be compulsory reading for anybody interested in Wall Street or financially exposed to it; at the moment, that would be roughly everybody in the United States."--Economist

From review of Princeton's previous edition: "[An] excellent new book. . . . If you want to preserve capital, unload most of your stocks and invest in government bonds."--Steve H. Hanke, Forbes

From review of Princeton's previous edition: "Likely to be the year's most-talked-about finance book. . . . You can agree or disagree with it. But you owe it to yourself to read it if you are investing in equities or contemplating doing so."--Fred Barbash, International Herald Tribune

From review of Princeton's previous edition: "Irrational Exuberance is likely to cause a stir. . . . Shiller illustrates how the current market is like a naturally occurring Ponzi scheme in which investors become promoters for the game after receiving initial payments with money taken from subsequent investors."--David Henry, USA Today

From review of Princeton's previous edition: "Irrational Exuberance is not billed as a personal finance book. But it is. You can agree or disagree with it. But you owe it to yourself to read it if you're investing, or contemplating investing, in inequities."--The Washington Post

From review of Princeton's previous edition: "A must-read . . . refreshing, well-reasoned . . . and very readable."--Michael P. Niemira, Barron's

From review of Princeton's previous edition: "So why have share prices soared so high in the past five years, taking market valuations past all historical records? Professor Shiller's answer, as the title indicates, is not encouraging. His message is: diversify now as much as you can, and batten down the hatches."--Diane Coyle, Independent

From review of Princeton's previous edition: "Shiller has written a crystal-clear and tough-minded critique. . . ."--David Warsh, Boston Globe

The point of Irrational Exuberance is not to help investors dump their houses before the current exuberance fades. It is to deepen our understanding of the events we are watching as one bubble gives birth to another and to encourage readers to think about economic behavior and economic policies that can cushion the nasty side of volatility."--Sharon Reier, The International Herald Tribune

"The first edition of this book was widely read because of its timing. This one, too, seems perfectly timed, coming when we're starting to fear we've been fooling ourselves. Again. . . . There's a world of important information for everyone."--Lyn Miller, USA Today

"The second edition's new component . . . is Shiller's exploration of how market psychology has responded to the ensuing five years of retrenchment. One chilling conclusion he reaches from his knowledge of past market performance is that the 2005 market may still be correcting and that a return to 2000 levels may be a decade away. He further warns that many investors are still too heavily invested in equities and that proposals to invest Social Security funds in the stock market would subject the retirement system to unacceptable risk. Shiller expands his focus to include the booming real estate market where he sees another speculative bubble building."--Library Journal

"There's plenty of new material in this edition. . . . Chief among the new additions is Shiller's deeper focus on recent excesses in the stock market and his skepticism about investing in real estate. . . . . Shiller's ideas have so many devoted followers that I wouldn't be surprised to see many more editions."--Angele McQuade, BetterInvesting

"Yale University Professor Robert Shiller pretty much called the stock market drop when this book was first published in 2000. In this fact-packed book, Shiller describes the psychological origins of volatility, among other things. And in the newest edition, Shiller compares the recent housing boom to the stock market bubble of the 1990s."--Registered Rep.

Customer Reviews

4.0 out of 5 stars
Share your thoughts with other customers

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

424 of 445 people found the following review helpful By Arnold Kling on March 22, 2000
Format: Hardcover
Robert Shiller argues that the stock market has experienced a bubble. He makes his case on the basis of a sober statistical judgement. However, in layman's terms, what he says boils down to, "If it walks like a duck, it is a duck." Demonstrating the absurdity of today's stock prices does not require clever statistical modeling.
This begs the question of why a bubble emerged in the late 1990's. Shiller discusses several cultural factors such as the ever-higher profile of the stock market in the media, including the Internet.
This begs the question of how it is possible for so many people wrongly to be optimistic about stocks. Shiller cites many findings in psychology, such as Asch Conformity, to explain how people can listen to others against their own best judgement.
This begs the question of whether it could be Shiller who is irrational. Shiller examines and refutes the arguments that pundits have made to rationalize exuberance.
There are three audiences for this book, all of whom will find it threatening.
1. Ordinary investors. You will not want to read this book, because it asks you to confront an issue that you would be more comfortable avoiding. However, once you do dive into it, you will be rewarded with sober facts and analysis that you can use to resist the siren calls of pundits, brokers, and friends to buy into the bubble.
I can assure you that Robert Shiller did not write this book to make his own fortune. The book jacket says nothing like "five strategies to survive the bubble," although he does mention some conservative investment alternatives. There certainly is no endorsement from Suze Orman or any of the other best-selling gurus that he swiftly skewers.
Read more ›
Comment Was this review helpful to you? Yes No Sending feedback...
Thank you for your feedback. If this review is inappropriate, please let us know.
Sorry, we failed to record your vote. Please try again
73 of 75 people found the following review helpful By Harvey S. Karten on March 30, 2000
Format: Hardcover Verified Purchase
Robert J. Shiller's "Irrational Exuberance" is about the most bearish book you could ever read about the stock market. Filled with charts and graphs and footnotes of every description, the book--whose title comes from a quote by Alan Greenspan--attacks Wall Street ideas that have become so accepted that they are household sayings. The principal such idea is that securities have always been the best investments over the long run--beating out bonds, foreign currencies, rare stamps, gold and the like. Shiller points out quite a few examples of how market prices, principally the Dow, have remained pretty flat over some periods of 10, 20, 30 years when corrected for inflation. In some circumstances, you might have done better if you put your spare cash in the bank.
Of course the market has been a great place to stash your cash if you got in at the right time--in 1982, for example, at the very start of the longest-running bull market in history. But put your money there now at your own risk. Seventy-two percent of mutual fund managers believe that we're in a speculative bubble now, with the Dow, at 11,000, reaching for figures that far exceed the historic level which would put the rational figure at 6,000. Shiller would not be surprised if the Dow settled in at, say, 10,000--in the year 2020! And what's more, he'd not be astonished if the Dow sank to 6,000 in the near future.
I was convinced after reading Shiller. He has marshalled his facts in a carefully researched screed against following the sheep-like crowds and I have replaced the tens of millions I had invested in common stocks with far more secure, if less exciting, instruments.
Harvey S. Karten film_critic@compuserve.com
Comment Was this review helpful to you? Yes No Sending feedback...
Thank you for your feedback. If this review is inappropriate, please let us know.
Sorry, we failed to record your vote. Please try again
63 of 65 people found the following review helpful By B.Sudhakar Shenoy on October 9, 2006
Format: Hardcover
I read the second edition of this book since it is enlarged with the study of the housing market. The phenomenon of bubbles and negative bubbles or collapses is described extremely well by means of statistical data of markets for over a century and a half. The raw data is adjusted to inflation to give a realistic perspective of the trends and patterns. Bubbles seem to be occurring at regular intervals typically based on the "new era" story and everyone believes at least during the heady days that good times are here to stay. But as shown by proven evidence of the past, no bubble has sustained itself permanently and good reason prevails sooner or later. When this happens, the bloated bubble collapses and the hangover is terrible. The story so far is quite simple. But what makes this book so interesting is the depth of research and the manner in which the phenomenon is studied and explained.

The combination of mass psychology and market prices is at the core of this book. For bubbles to happen, information flow is the key. Media plays a significant role in disseminating information and bubbles seem to have originated in recorded history after the advent of the print media. In recent times electronic media particularly the television and the internet play a significant role in speeding up bubble formation and also the reversals. Media needs a storyline and this story needs to be continued to retain customers on a daily basis. Stock market is the ideal place that offers an opportunity to try one's luck if a casino is far away. Backed by on-line dedicated news channels and internet trading, well, it is not surprising that we have day traders in herds. In such situations fundamentals like industry analysis and P/E ratios take a backseat as explained by the author.
Read more ›
1 Comment Was this review helpful to you? Yes No Sending feedback...
Thank you for your feedback. If this review is inappropriate, please let us know.
Sorry, we failed to record your vote. Please try again

Most Recent Customer Reviews

Search
ARRAY(0xa1281288)