Customer Reviews

Irrationality

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4 star:		(1)
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Sutherland's book became a constant companion for me the week it arrived. I began reading it at work during lunch, and found myself quickly drawn into...better said, hopelessly slipping into a vigorous head nod and agreeing with this author's purpose and insights. He clearly says his purpose is to demonstrate that people are very much less rational than is commonly thought of and to set out systemmatically the many reasons this is so. Nobody is exempt (p. 3) The convincing magnetism for me was the undeniable brute reality of the arguments, which I could easily spot as I went through my work day with my colleagues. The chapters on obedience, conformity, and in and out groups directly helped me appreciate more the struggles that I see my Japanese colleagues and students have, as well as internationals living and working in Japan experience. His book helped me accept and avoid some conflicts with some "leaders" by providing me with the poignant irrational category. Otherwise I would have used a different language set to describe their "irrationality". I enjoyed this book through and through. He covers all of the bases...and I do mean all from historical, medical, military, education, finances, with great studies and nicely illustrated stories. The transitions from chapter to chapter, and the pithy summaries at the end of each chapter makes the reading flow. It is a book that definitely provided some great coffee break material at work as well a lot of laughs at home. Still the benefits are to be seen in my personal reflection and application to my own thinking. This report suffers from the halo effect Sutherland describes. His one chapter at the end on the "Causes, Cures and Costs" did leave me wanting more as I felt the curtain was drawn too quickly. But I was not negative because I felt I had got my monies worth from many of the preceding chapters. This is the first book I have read by Sutherland. He is a great writer and I am looking forward to getting into some of his other works. His book is not a formal treatise in logic that one would get from an expert like Copi, or Kahneman. Indeed some research indicates that even with formal training, there is little improvement in our reasoning skills. Nevertheless, Sutherland provides us with a conscious raising book that is sufficient to keep us all humble and honest. Thank you Dr. Sutherland for the tips of how I can make my world a the work world I live in a bit more tolerable with a smile. I hope the book is in line for a second edition.

Absolutely excellent.

This book takes our own way of thinking and shows us where we make mistakes while thinking we are being perfectly rational.

Wonderful examples, easy reading style - you don't notice how much you learn while being entertained - and he really makes you laugh at your own mistakes - that's not easy, at least for me, I tend to get annoyed when I'm wrong and some very wise person shows up and tells me about it - while he does it in such a funny way, I really don't mind.

A wonderful book, I reread it again and again.

It is scary, though, to think of all the foolish decisions being taken every day in the name of "rational decisionmaking" - this book ought to be mandatory reading for everyone who makes decisions - so really, for everyone.

We seem to be surrounded by bad decision making on all levels...from 'road rage' on our highways, to the city council, from the school board to the boardrooms of America. When your fellow man's 'logic' seems to defy reason, turn to Stuart Sutherland for solice, explanation, better decision making strategies...and good hearty laughter. You'll see yourself, your family, friends and co-workers brilliantly described...for better or worse. Best of all, the author gives really rather simple ways to improve our thinking on a daily basis, and helps to understand others who aren't thinking clearly.

Stuart Sutherland neatly skewers all those pieces of human behaviour that have driven you mad because you couldn't understand how humans could ever act like that, with a simple understandable explanation; They aren't rational.

This sounds like a truisim, and it is. But critically, it's the insight that irrationality is itself a specific form of human behaviour, that is entertaining, revealing and I would even say liberating in its effect.

For example; YOU think that by reading this review you are going through a rational process at the end of which you will make a considered decision on buying the book. In fact, you've decided already. What you're really doing here is justifying that decision.

I bought 30 copies of this book in 1994 and gave a copy to every member of the marketing department. Now I want to buy more, but my advocacy can't stretch to US$40 a copy for hardback. Please mr publisher, do another run of paperback!

This book gives great insight into the human mind and why we really "don't think straight". It puts into perspective. everything that you may believe to be crazy or odd in the world. Great book.

The only problem I had with it was the grammar. It seemed like one sentence ran on for a entire page and there were no breaks. There are hardly any commas or any real grammar which could have lightened up the read or at least offered a break during the extremely long sentences.
Sometimes I had to re-read the sentence/paragraph 3 times til' I understood them fully.
The grammar may be related to the authors origin being Britain. It still drove me "bloody mad!"

Other than the poor grammar. I really liked the book.

Run an amazon search on "decision making" and you'll come up with several thousand hits. Which one to get on this all-important topic ? THIS ONE IS IT !

Sutherland seems to cover about all the bases when it comes to rational thinking and decision making. He goes into the psychological, sociological, and organizational aspects of fallacious reasoning. He exposes and explains some one-hundred or so errors and biases that cloud our judgment; he gives the current ideas on how and why these enter our thinking; and he presents strategies on how these might be avoided in our future efforts.

Specifically, things he covers include (taken from a perusal of the index): availability error, attribution error, causal inference, regression to the mean, halo effect, bystander effect, primacy effect, recency effect, boomerang effect, the illusory correlation, cognitive dissoncance, confirmation bias, contrast effect, dismissal of negative evidence, counterevidence, framing effects, the gambler's fallacy, the law of large numbers, marginal utility, probability matching, self-serving biases, expected value, slide effect, and representativeness, and groupthink. Techniques and processes he goes into include elementary probability and statistics, Bayesian treatment of probabilities, cost-benefit analysis, utility theory, and the foot-in-the-door technique used by salesmen and others who seek to persuade.

I can further describe the comprehensiveness of Sutherland's book by presenting his table of contents:

1 Introduction
2 The Wrong Impression
3 Obedience
4 Conformity
5 In-groups and Out-groups
6 Organizational Folly
7 Misplaced Consistency
8 Misuse of Rewards and Punishment
9 Drive and Emotion
10 Ignoring the Evidence
11 Distorting the Evidence
12 Making the Wrong Connections
13 Mistaken Connections in Medicine
14 Mistaking the Cause
15 Misinterpreting the Evidence
16 Inconsistent Decisions and Bad Bets
17 Overconfidence
18 Risks
19 False Inferences
20 The Failure of Intuition
21 Utility
22 The Paranormal
23 Causes, Cures, and Costs

About the only thing he doesn't cover that I can think of is certain aspects of logic, or epistimology. I have in mind things like deductive versus inductive reasoning, or establishing who has the burden of proof in an argument. But the book is already 328 pages long and those things are already amply covered by any good logic text.

Numerous examples are drawn from the fields of business, medicine, engineering, and the military. Sutherland also cites the results of many psychological tests and case studies that reinforce his conclusions. Perhaps most impressive is his breezy, readable yet to-the-point writing style. He includes many entertaining anecdotes without becoming excessively chatty. I find it remarkable that he can cover so much ground in so few pages in such an affable manner.

One of Sutherland's major points is that one must possess (at the least) an elementary understanding of probability and statistics to think and make decisions in a rational manner. He illustrates with many examples how even trained professionals so often rely on gut intuition to make life-and-death decisions that affect the public. He acknowledges that in our personal lives these mathematical techniques are too cumbersome to use on a daily basis, yet we can all benefit from knowledge and practice of formal decision making in that it can inform our intuitions in an indirect way. That is to say, if we learn how to correctly reason from a formal mathematical basis, we will naturally make better intuitive decisions in a sort-of osmotic way. The world is affected by all the small decisions each of us make in our everyday lives, and if we took to heart the lessons presented by Sutherland for making better decisions, it could only help to make our world a better place.

The same goes for the beliefs that we come to hold. We act not only on our decisions, but also on our beliefs. Insofar as our beliefs result from our thinking about the people and events we encounter in life, Sutherland's treatise on correct methods of thinking also in this way can benefit the public.

With so many many other books available in this field, I very highly recommend this one above all the rest. I look forward to reviewing the 2007 edition of this title if Sutherland was able to add anything more to what's already here in this 1994 edition.